Drama Emmy Predictions: Is ‘Severance’ Undeniable?

Leading into this weekend’s Emmy Awards, The Contending considers the tight races in our Drama Emmy Predictions.

Believe it or not, the 2025 Emmy Awards are upon us. Finally. We covered Comedy Series and Limited Series predictions, so it’s now time to consider some of the toughest categories of the evening in our Drama Emmy Predictions. Or are they really that tough? Following the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, Severance seems the undeniable frontrunner. Yet, The Pitt picked up a few very significant wins that would point to potential wins on Sunday night. Let’s break it down, shall we?

Severance season one entered its Emmy night with 14 nominations. That’s, of course, strong for any freshman season of a show that offered a wildly different narrative. That celebrated season of television felt unlike anything else we’ve ever seen. It blended elements of a Twin Peaks-like fever dream with the very realistic nightmare world of modern corporate America. But a close look at those nominations reveals a flaw in the armor: the series’s celebrated lead actress (Britt Lower) failed to receive a nomination. Did everyone really love it as much as the internet? It also faced the juggernaut of Severance season three as well as other popular dramas like Euphoria, Squid Game, and Ozark. Those two events came together to nearly shut Severance out in the cold. It would leave the Primetime evening empty-handed, netting only two awards for its freshman season in the Creative Arts categories.

Now, Severance returns with an equally (perhaps more so) acclaimed second season, and it’s likely it’s time to shine at the Emmys. Season two picked up six wins last weekend, including Guest Actress in a Drama Series for the Television Academy-beloved Merritt Wever. All signs point to Severance picking up more trophies on Primetime night, even if almost no one agrees exactly which ones (see below). My personal thoughts align with wins for Drama Series and Actress, but it could easily pick up additional wins for directing, writing, or Supporting Actor (either Tramell Tillman or Zach Cherry — the emotional center of the season). Its nominations for the other acting races feel a bit out of reach given the intense competition there.

So, Severance seems fairly well set for supremacy on Sunday night, right?

Yes… and no… This is likely my own personal bias, but I feel that no one has really talked about Severance since it aired. The series is incredibly well constructed, but its puzzle box storyline feels increasingly disconnected and meandering as season two progresses. After all of the promise of season one, does Severance really boil down to a love triangle between two incredibly attractive women (Lower and Dichen Lachman) over a pasty-faced Adam Scott? And the Merritt Wever / Zach Cherry / Zach Cherry love triangle provides true emotional depth, but it’s buried under a thick blanket of much ado about nothing.

I’m a much bigger fan of The Pitt and its honest approach to drama. It took me months to start the series. I kept wondering why we needed yet another medical drama. Turns out, we absolutely did. The Pitt excels because it deftly blends a near-documentary filmmaking style with honest emotions centered on patients’ stories. Gone are the melodramatic sagas centered around the medical staff in which Grey’s Anatomy wallows. Instead, we wade into The Pitt and experience a day in the life of an emergency room care giver with all of the dread, fear, and exhaustion they feel on a minute-by-minute basis. It’s absolutely brilliant, emotionally honest television that still feels groundbreaking despite the well worn genre of the medical drama.

So, I can’t help shake the fact that the Television Academy may feel the same way. Given their recent penchant for going up and down their ballots with the most talked-about show, I’m still going with Severance. But none of me would feel particularly surprised if The Pitt surprises at the end of the night. It did win a bit of a precursor award — Casting for a Drama Series — last weekend. It’s not a foolproof stat, but it’s a better position to be in than not. That’s why, ultimately, I’m splitting the wealth between the two shows with a sprinkling of The White Lotus tossed in for good measure.

It just feels like a spread the wealth kind of Emmy season to me.