• Main
  • Film
  • Television
  • Theater
  • Best Of the Rest
  • Subscribe
  • About
Sunday, May 24, 2026
  • Login
  • Register
The Contending
No Result
View All Result
  • Main
  • Film
  • Television
  • Theater
  • Best Of the Rest
  • Subscribe
  • About
No Result
View All Result
The Contending
No Result
View All Result
Home Theater

Tony Awards 2026 Predictions: Will It Be A Schmigasweep Or Can ‘The Lost Boys’ Fly Home With Top Honors?

Frank J. Avella by Frank J. Avella
May 24, 2026
in Featured Story, Featured Theater, News, Theater, Tony Awards
0
Tony Awards 2026 Predictions: Will It Be A Schmigasweep Or Can ‘The Lost Boys’ Fly Home With Top Honors?

Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

It was a strong year for plays, both new and old, on the Great White Way and a mediocre and slight year for musicals. Period. Let’s hope next season brings a better crop.

There are some tight acting races and some no-brainer, slam-dunks! But no real nail-biter like last year’s Nicole vs. Audra smackdown. (Tony voters got that one so right, thank the theatre gods.)

Most of the deserving artists did get recognized but Becky Shaw and the cast of The Balusters deserved more love.

That said, here are my predictions.

Best Play

The Balusters  Author: David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant  Author: Mark Rosenblatt
Liberation  Author: Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road  Author: Samuel D. Hunter

Any of the four nominees could win. The critics darling here is Little Bear Ridge Road. Liberation, which has since closed, is probably the front-runner since it won the Pulitzer and Drama League Awards. The Balusters is quite popular with voters and won the Drama Desk Award for Best Play (of course it was the only Broadway show nominated). And don’t count out the power of Giant.

Prediction: Liberation

Preference: The Balusters

Should Have Been Nominated: Punch

Best Musical

The Lost Boys
 Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

It’s another 4-way race. The Lost Boys feels like it’s been picking up steam but the glossy Schmigadoon! seems to have the edge. Photo finish.

Prediction: Schmigadoon!

Best Revival of a Play

 Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Becky Shaw
Every Brilliant Thing
Fallen Angels
Oedipus

Prediction: Death of a Salesman

Preference: Becky Shaw

Should Have Been Nominated: Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

The Rocky Horror Show. @Joan Marcus.

Best Revival of a Musical 

Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Prediction: Ragtime

Preference: The Rocky Horror Show

Should Have Been Nominated: Chess (despite the misguided book)

Best Book of a Musical

The Lost Boys  David Hornsby and Chris Hoch
Schmigadoon!  Cinco Paul
Titaníque  Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)  Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

Prediction: Schmigadoon!

 Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman  Music: Caroline Shaw
August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone  Music: Steve Bargonetti
The Lost Boys  Music & Lyrics: The Rescues
Schmigadoon!  Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)  Music & Lyrics: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan 

Prediction: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Will Harrison. Courtesy of Matthew Murphy

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus  

It’s Lane vs. Lithgow in a super strong category. 

Prediction: John Lithgow

Preference: Will Harrison

Should Have Been Nominated: Jon Bernthal, Dog Day Afternoon

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels

O’Hara and Byrne are fabulous, but this one must go to Manville.

Prediction & Preference: Lesley Manville

Should Have Been Nominated: Ayo Edibiri, Proof, Anika Noni Rose, The Balusters

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime 

Prediction: Joshua Henry

Preference: Luke Evans

Should Have Been Nominated: LJ Benet, The Lost Boys

Should Not Have Been Placed in Lead: Aaron Tveit, Chess, Andrew Durand, The Rocky Horror Show

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Prediction: Caissie Levy

Preference: Caissie Levy

Should Have Been Nominated: Lea Michelle, Chess

Alden Ehrenreich. Photo by Marc J. Franklin

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters

A super stacked category — and so many worthy performances were left off this list!!! Abbott could take it. Burstein is beloved as is Thomas. But one performance seared the stage…

Prediction & Preference: Alden Ehrenreich

Should Have Been Nominated: Ben Ahlers, Death of a Salesman, Joshua Boone, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Patrick Ball, Becky Shaw

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters
Aya Cash, Giant
Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime  

The legion of great featured performances eligible here proves that the category needs to be expanded to include more than just five nominees!

Prediction: Laurie Metcalf

Preference: Marylouise Burke

Should Have Been Nominated: Linda Emond, Becky Shaw, Margaret Colin, The Balusters, Jessica Hecht, Dog Day Afternoon, Kara Young, Proof

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham, Chess
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Layton Williams, Titaníque 

A Broadway legend vs. two amazing Broadway newcomers who killed! Both Bourzgui and Ross are doing extraordinary, star-making work.

Prediction: André De Shields

Preference: Ali Louis Bourzgui or Ben Levi Ross

Should Have Been Nominated: Constantine Rousouli, Titanique, Max Clayton, Schmigadoon, The aforementioned Tveit & Durand

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
Rachel Dratch, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime 

Prediction: Shoshana Bean

Preference: Shoshana Bean or Hannah Cruz

Should Have Been Nominated: McKenzie Kurtz, Schmigadoon!, Juliette Lewis, The Rocky Horror Show

The Balusters. @Jeremy Daniel

Best Direction of a Play

Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation 

Prediction: Joe Mantello

Preference: Kenny Leon

Should Have Been Nominated: Trip Cullman, Becky Shaw

Best Direction of a Musical

Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball 

Prediction: Christopher Gattelli

Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Pinkleton, The Rocky Horror Show

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus
Takeshi Kata, Bug
Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
David Rockwell, Fallen Angels

 Prediction: Fallen Angels

Preference: Dog Day Afternoon

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

dots, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!  

Prediction: The Lost Boys

Preference: The Lost Boys

Best Costume Design of a Play

Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon
Qween Jean, Liberation
Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Emilio Sosa, The Balusters
Paul Tazewell, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone 

Prediction: Fallen Angels

Preference: Dog Day Afternoon

 Best Costume Design of a Musical

Linda Cho, Ragtime
Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!
Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ryan Park, The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show 

Prediction: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Preference: The Rocky Horror Show

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon
Natasha Chivers, Oedipus
Stacey Derosier, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Heather Gilbert, Bug
Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13
Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Prediction & Preference: Death of a Salesman

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Kevin Adams, Chess
Jane Cox, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!
Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting) and 59 Studio (Projection), Ragtime
Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys   

Prediction & Preference: The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play

Justin Ellington, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Tom Gibbons, Oedipus
Lee Kinney, The Fear of 13
Josh Schmidt, Bug
Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman 

Prediction: Death of a Salesman

Preference: Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Kai Harada, Ragtime
Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
Brian Ronan, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon!

Prediction & Preference: The Lost Boys

Best Choreography

Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys  

Prediction: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Orchestrations

Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!
Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez and Gabriel Mann, The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brian Usifer, Chess
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Prediction: Schmigadoon!

Preference: Chess

Spread the Word!

  • More
Tags: Becky ShawChessDeath of a SalesmanGiantRagtimeSchmigadoonThe BalustersThe Lost BoysTitaniqueTony AwardsTwo Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Frank J. Avella

Frank J. Avella

Frank J. Avella is a proud staff writer for The Contending and an Edge Media Network contributor. He serves as the GALECA Industry Liaison (Home of the Dorian Awards) and is a Member of the New York Film Critics Online. As screenwriter/director, his award-winning short film, FIG JAM, has shown in Festivals worldwide and won numerous awards. Recently produced stage plays include LURED & VATICAN FALLS, both O'Neill semifinalists. His latest play FROCI, is about the queer Italian-American experience. Frank is a proud member of the Dramatists Guild.

Subscribe to Podcast

Apple PodcastsSpotifyAndroidby EmailRSS

Subscribe Now!

Subscribe here to The Contending's newsletter! We will never spam you. We promise!

Looking To Advertise?

Looking to advertise with The Contending? Contact us for inquiries!

The Latest Stuff

Tony Awards 2026 Predictions: Will It Be A Schmigasweep Or Can ‘The Lost Boys’ Fly Home With Top Honors?

Tony Awards 2026 Predictions: Will It Be A Schmigasweep Or Can The Lost Boys Fly Home With Top Honors?

May 24, 2026
nuisance bear scene shows a bear in the water

Beautifully Devastating Doc ‘Nuisance Bear’ Closes Out Mammoth Lakes Film Festival

May 24, 2026
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards Winners Revealed After a Record 73 Million Votes Cast Globally

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards Winners Revealed After a Record 73 Million Votes Cast Globally

May 23, 2026
alex honnold sits atop the tallest building in the world in Skyscraper Live, a 2026 emmy doc contender

These 2026 Emmy Doc/Nonfiction Contenders Will Have You on the Edge of Your Seat

May 22, 2026
Diamonds

‘Diamonds:’ Ferzan Özpetek On His 15th Feature Film, Continuous Queer Content [VIDEO]

May 20, 2026

Wise Words From Our Readers

  • Michael Meyers on Top Ten Tuesday: The Greatest High School Movies
  • Ferdinand on Top Ten Tuesday: The Greatest Animated Feature Oscar Winners
  • FJA on Top Ten Tuesday: Meryl Streep’s 10 Best Performances
  • Clarence Moye on Top Ten Tuesday: Meryl Streep’s 10 Best Performances
  • Mark Johnson on Top Ten Tuesday: Meryl Streep’s 10 Best Performances
The Contending

© 2025 The Contending

Find All the Things

  • Main
  • Film
  • Television
  • Theater
  • Best Of the Rest
  • Subscribe
  • About

Dreaded Social Media

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Main
  • Film
  • Television
  • Theater
  • Best Of the Rest
  • Subscribe
  • About

© 2025 The Contending

  • More Networks
Share via
Facebook
X (Twitter)
LinkedIn
Mix
Email
Print
Copy Link
Copy link
CopyCopied