Comedy Emmy® Predictions: Will ‘Hacks’ Repeat Or Is ‘Studio’ Rising?

The Television Academy unveils their nominations for the 2025 Primetime Emmy® Awards on Tuesday, July 15. Through Friday, The Contending staff members will release their predictions of each major race in the Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series / TV Movie categories. Today, we’re focusing on our comedy Emmy predictions. 

As with Drama Series, a 3-way race probably exists for Comedy Series at the 2025 Emmy® Awards. Actually, it’s more like a 2-way race, but more on that in a bit. Last year’s unexpected champion Hacks returns with another critically acclaimed season on par with season three’s critical reception: both receiving 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. In case you’re quibbling that the RT score for seasons three and four are down from seasons one and two’s 100%, take a look at the Metacritic average (it’s a series-high 90). So Hacks seems perfectly poised to repeat, right? Not so fast. AppleTV’s The Studio could emerge as this year’s “new hot thing” and something so inside baseball that the Television Academy can’t resist it. Let’s take a look at this race and more in our comedy Emmy predictions.

Hacks vs. The Studio

The only series that truly stands in the way of Hacks is The Studio. Earlier, I mentioned there could be a 3-way race, but that’s unlikely. I was including, of course, FX’s The Bear. But then I remembered that season three was an incredibly divisive season, one that many felt abandoned the more relatable aspects of the earlier seasons and became too impressed with itself. The Bear lost the Comedy Series Emmy to Hacks last year after most were predicting it to win for a far more beloved second season, but that didn’t happen. Season three doesn’t have the grit to return it to the winner’s circle. So, a 3-way race becomes a 2-way race.

It would be a done deal for Hacks, but even if critics loved the fourth season, audiences definitely cooled on it. The storyline sees Deborah (the great Jean Smart) flailing in her late show gig, eventually quitting in solidarity with Ava (Hannah Einbinder). In a similar trajectory to The Bear, audiences seem to love their protagonists on the rise, and creatives seem to love to take them down. I’ll admit to being cooler to season four than most of my counterparts. There’s something about the ending that feels repetitive to me, leaving an unpleasant taste for certain. But it’s in the frontrunner position because there really aren’t that many serious contenders to win except for The Studio.

Unlike the drama side of the house, the Television Academy recently had no issue awarding comedies in their freshman seasons. Mad Men, Homeland, Lost, and The Handmaid’s Tale won drama series in their freshman seasons in the last 20 years. On the comedy front in the same window, Arrested Development, 30 Rock, Modern Family, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Ted Lasso, and The Bear all won on their first runs. That’s even more impressive considering how many shows won multiple times within that 20-year period. All of this to say that The Studio could absolutely win on its first nomination. It’s a very flashy show with a strong ensemble and gorgeous crafts behind it. It also boasts hugely Hollywood plot lines to which many in the industry could relate. The Golden Globes. Cinema Con. Temperamental directors. “Woke” casting. You get the idea.

The only thing truly standing in its way is a mildly divisive reaction to the series. Honestly, creator / star Seth Rogan comes across as an acquired taste, and your reaction to The Studio depends entirely on your reaction to its star. He (and by extension the show) can be a lot. Audiences seem to like The Studio (75% RT user score) more than Hacks‘s fourth season (69% RT user score), although I suspect that number to be slightly padded with “cinema enthusiasts” drunk on the in-jokes.

What’s particularly challenging is that the nominations really won’t tell us that much about who’s the frontrunner. Hacks typically has a ceiling of around 17 nominations. The Studio could see upwards of 20 nominations, particularly if it over-performs in the acting races. It could take several nominations away from Hacks in the Guest races, a place Hacks traditionally excels. The Studio could be one of those shows that the Television Academy embraces individual aspects without fully embracing the whole. The only major sign of trouble would be if Catherine O’Hara or Kathryn Hahn both miss on Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.

The Problem With the Supporting Races

Speaking of Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series, if anyone tells you they know 100% who will be nominated, then they’re lying to you. The category could go in a dozen different directions, and our comedy Emmy predictions below reflect that. A consensus exists on four performances: Einbinder, Janelle James (Abbott Elementary), Hahn, and Colon-Zayas (The Bear). Beyond that, we scatter with the wind.

Has the Television Academy grown tired of Abbott? Will they look to The Studio to fill those slots? Could The Studio over-perform and receive three nominations in Supporting Actress? What about Shrinking and Jessica Williams? She was Emmy nominated for its first season, the surprise nominee where others failed. Does she repeat for a relatively muted second season? Does Hacks over-perform and see Megan Stalter finally nominated? Are there surprise nominations for the recently departed Linda Lavin (Mid-Century Modern) or for the hugely underrated Kerry Kinney-Silver (The Four Seasons)?

The same confusion exists for Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series.

We also have four consensus prediction nominations here: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear), Ike Barinholtz (The Studio), Paul W. Downs (Hacks), and Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary). After those, we have many questions. Did The Four Seasons premiere too late to see Colman Domingo nominated? Will previously nominated supporting actors from The Bear return with a divisive third season? Outside of Moss-Bachrach, no one seems likely. Bowen Yang received nominations more often than not for Saturday Night Live, so will its 50th birthday see him nominated again? With Shrinking, will Harrison Ford receive that nomination everyone thought he’d get for season one? Will Michael Urie or Brett Goldstein join him? Or will they all be left out? These are a few of the questions that plagued us on our recent Emmy-focused podcast, during which most of us changed our predictions after talking through some of the scenarios.

The frustration / fun with the Emmys (entirely depending on your perspective) is that there are literally no reliable precursors on which to base your predictions. You’re entirely shooting in the dark based on either your own preferences (never a good idea) or how you think 20,000 people will vote. It’s all a crap shoot, honestly, and nobody knows nothing.

So with that, here are The Contending’s comedy Emmy predictions. Drop your thoughts in the comments below!

Comedy Series

Lead Actor In a Comedy Series

Lead Actress In a Comedy Series

Supporting Actor In a Comedy Series

Supporting Actress In a Comedy Series

Guest Actor In a Comedy Series

Guest Actress In a Comedy Series