Drama Emmy® Predictions: ‘Severance,’ ‘White Lotus,’ ‘Pitt’ Will Rule

The Television Academy will unveil their nominations for the 2025 Primetime Emmy® Awards on Tuesday, July 15. Throughout this week, The Contending staff members will release their predictions of each major race in the Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series / TV Movie categories. First up, let’s talk about our drama Emmy predictions. 

When the dust settles at the end of this year’s Emmy® race, one of the following three drama series will take home the top prize: AppleTV’s Severance, HBO’s The White Lotus: Thailand, or MAX’s The Pitt. Who ultimately wins the Drama Series Emmy is a question for another day. However, right now, it’s very clear that these series will dominate the Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy nominations when they’re announced next Tuesday. By how much will they lead? What impact will a divisive sophomore season of The Last of Us have? That’s where our drama Emmy predictions will hopefully lead us.

Severance

Severance, the presumed frontrunner for months now, burst onto the Emmy scene back in 2022 with 14 nominations for its freshman season, including Drama Series. However, it went home empty-handed during the Primetime ceremony. It won only two awards overall at the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony earlier that month for Main Title Design and Music Composition for a Series (Original Dramatic Score). Thanks to the SAG / WGA strikes and heavily rumored revamping, Severance season two didn’t debut until January 2025.

The wait seemed well worth it, though, as critics and online fans wildly embraced the new season, calling each episode the best of the series as it aired before eventually losing their minds over the final few episodes of the season. However, online reactions don’t necessarily equate popular opinion, and there are very mild warning signs that general audiences haven’t embraced season two in the same fashion. Check out that 72% Rotten Tomatoes user score for season two compared to season one’s 86% approved.

But that will have little-to-no impact on the Emmy nominations. Severance seems poised to potentially lead the year’s Emmy haul. Opinions vary, but it should see around 8 acting nominations alone. Add to that the guaranteed nomination for Drama Series and multiple nominations for directing and writing. Wins in September will be another question.

The White Lotus: Thailand

The Television Academy loves Mike White and his The White Lotus series. What started as a quick pandemic entertainment burst into the pop cultural landscape thanks to both word of mouth and persistent memes. The first season, Maui, received 20 nominations in 2022 in the Limited Series and Creative Arts categories, winning 10 Emmys. Season two, Sicily, shifted to the drama categories thanks to Emmy rules but increased its Emmy nomination number to 23. That’s due to a surprising over-performance in the acting categories, but stiffer competition in the drama categories reduced its win count to five.

Thailand, season three, should see another strong haul, although it’s doubtful that it will reach the heights of season two. First, recent Emmy rule changes limited the number of nominations a voting member of the Television Academy could make. Before, they could select far more choices in the acting races than the current five (I believe) selections. So, the type of nominations for lesser-known actors such season two’s Simona Tabasco likely won’t materialize for season three’s Emmy noms.

But the ensemble series should still perform well. While critics have slightly cooled on season three (RT of 86% compared to season two’s 94%), audiences remain as positive on it as they ever have been with a RT audience score of 76%, roughly consistent with the two previous seasons. It will receive drama series, directing, and writing nominations in addition to a slew of acting nominations. Because it’s an ensemble piece, all cast members compete in the supporting or guest races. Currently, The Contending consensus has around 8 acting nominations across both supporting categories and a likely Guest Actor in a Drama Series nomination for Scott Glenn. While still very strong, that would be down from season two’s high of nine nominations.

The Pitt

Television certainly doesn’t lack for anxiety-inducing medical dramas such as The Pitt. Emmy boasts a long-standing love affair with the genre including St. Elsewhere, E.R., Grey’s Anatomy (the early seasons), and many, many more. So, it emerged as a bit of a surprise that MAX’s The Pitt stunned so many out of the gate when it premiered last January. Critics loved it (95% RT) as did audiences (85% RT, an high water mark these days for serial television). Yes, there’s been a bit of controversy around its origins, but the average viewer doesn’t care about that at all. What they love is the combination of strong direction, great performances, and meaningful storylines.

We don’t have any guild nominations given the series’s premiere date, and traditionally, the Television Academy rarely goes all-out for freshman season dramas. It typically takes a season or two before a series hits big. What I mean by “big” is the difference between a 10-15 nomination haul and a 15-20+ nomination haul. As I mentioned up above, Severance received 14 noms in its freshman season. Succession netted five. Even a tech-heavy series like Game of Thrones only received 13 in its first season. Perhaps pointing toward a higher Emmy nomination count would be E.R.‘s first season which saw the series nominated for 23 Emmys. Of course, it’s also the most Emmy-nominated series in history at 124 nominations. That could play into The Pitt‘s favor unless voting members of the Television Academy compare Noah Wyle’s new series unfavorably to that Emmy giant.

At any rate, here are The Contending’s drama Emmy predictions. Drop your thoughts in the comments below!

Drama Series

Lead Actor In a Drama Series

Lead Actress In a Drama Series

Supporting Actor In a Drama Series

Supporting Actress In a Drama Series

Guest Actor In a Drama Series

Guest Actress In a Drama Series