Happy Tuesday, dear readers! Each week, we’ll rank the top 10 films in a specific category. While we aim to tie these lists to big releases, that won’t always be the case. Our goal? For you to enjoy, share your own lists, and join in on a lively, friendly debate. This is an interactive space to build community here at The Contending.
No fancy intros, no long essays – just a category and a list. Sound good?
The Academy Award nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 23, and the excitement is building as we approach the big day. Later this evening, The Contending will be recording a special podcast episode where we’ll reveal our final predictions for the 2025 Oscar nominations.
However, what you are about to read is a bit different. This is not a list of my own personal predictions, but rather a bold and speculative ranking of ten nominations that could surprise us when the Oscar nominations are unveiled. These are the picks that, while not part of the consensus or mainstream predictions, have a potential shot at making it onto the big list. Think of it as a “no guts, no glory” list, highlighting the underdogs and long shots – nominations that might defy the odds and leave us all stunned on Thursday morning. These are the picks that, at this stage, very few (if any) are predicting, but they could still show up and shake up the race. Get ready for some surprising possibilities!
For the sake of this list, I’ll rank these surprises based on the likelihood that they could actually happen – from least likely to most plausible. I’ve considered factors like recent buzz, potential Oscar voter preferences, and the unpredictable nature of the Academy. The stipulations: they have to be at 100/1 odds or greater over at Gold Derby and should feel like a longshot (ie not Nicole Kidman for Actress or ).
Let’s go!
10. Transformers One – Animated Feature
9. The Wild Robot – Adapted Screenplay
8. Challengers, Nosferatu, or Civil War – Picture
7. Walter Salles (I’m Still Here) – Director
6. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) – Supporting Actress
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Production Design
4. The Apprentice – Makeup and Hairstyling
3. The Girl with the Needle – Cinematography
2. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) – Supporting Actor
1. Kate Winslet (Lee) – Actress
I don’t know about Gold Derby odds, but:
Mark Eydelshteyn, supporting
Kieran Culkin, lead
Queer, production design and adapted screenplay
I remember back in the way back machine where Mark Eydelshteyn was The Supporting Prediction from Anora. Would be interested if they both got in…
Queer's production design is outstanding.
Love the Culkin Lead prediction. That's ballsy.
Gotta put it out there, right?
I'd be over the moon if Ms Angelina Jolie is nominated for Maria (An unbelievably underrated 2024 gem).
It's a complete shame that she would be a "no guts no glory" prediction at this point.
Yeah, she pretty much is at this point.
Downvoting because of the overall fact, not reflecting negatively on you. LOL.
Inside Out 2, Adapted Screenplay
Sadly, predicting Villeneuve in Director and/or Screenplay is looking bold at this point.
I'm Still Here – picture
Soairse Ronan- actress
Marianne JB and Michele Austin BOTH in for Hard Truths
Peter Sarsgaard – supporting actor
I’d be thrilled to see Kate Winslet in Best Actress, as well as Zoe Saldaña. I’m sorry but ZS is not supporting – she’s a lead.
My one hope for Thursday is Carlos Diehz (Conclave) for Supporting Actor. We all have that one performance we champion each year. Benitz is that performance for me.
Glad to know where to find ya, Mark. Always enjoyed your pieces over the years.
I was getting on here to post Zoe in lead as well! Same page, could see that coming out of nowhere like Winselt/The Reader.
I thought the same thing. KW was running in the supporting category throughout the entire awards season until Oscar nominations day! I’m sure Penelope Cruz is forever grateful. 😉