Hey, guys. Did you know we’re still a month out from Telluride and TIFF?
You might not know this if you’ve been on the artist formerly known as Twitter lately, where people are not just debating whether Inde Navarrette gets in for Best Actress for Obsession, but the odds of her winning. WINNING. (It’s summer, guys.)
The discourse amped up after Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture put her in his top spot for Best Actress (this, after he notably didn’t include Amy Madigan in his initial predictions last year).
A lot of people are saying that Amy Madigan winning for Weapons and Demi Moore being nominated for The Substance equals a guaranteed nomination for Inde, but not so fast. While horror is certainly having a moment at the Oscars, just because it’s a good performance doesn’t mean she’s in (I’m still banging the drum for Rachel McAdams in Send Help, after all!).
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Inde could get in, but this isn’t the same discussion as last year with Amy Madigan. First, Amy had been nominated before. Second, she has been working in the business for decades. Let’s face it: Amy Madigan winning the Oscar for Gladys was a completely bonkers win, which is what made it so great (even Madigan herself was consistently shocked to find herself on the podium). Wins like this don’t happen very often, so why expect it to happen two years in a row, for an actress’s breakout film?
What Inde has going for her is that she’s in one of the most successful films of the year, an unexpected hit everyone is still talking about. But while the Academy makeup is changing, there’s still that idea of a prestige picture versus a blockbuster — and I tend to see Obsession as more of a blockbuster, less of an Academy film, the same way everyone said Challengers was going to be up for every Oscar (it received 0 nominations).
The Odyssey is also a huge box office hit — featuring Oscar winners. Do we really think Inde would take Anne’s spot if she goes lead? (I don’t.)
But Megan: What about Sinners? Top Gun: Maverick? These films were blockbusters that made it to the Dolby Theatre?
But these films had a historical element (both literal and contextual!) mixed with overdue narratives. Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan have been working steadily together for years before they finally got serious awards recognition last year. (Unbelievably, this was Jordan’s FIRST NOMINATION!). Top Gun: Maverick came out at a time when movie theaters really needed a win, and they made people love movies again. I think some people forget how even more dire it was five years ago compared to now.
Plus, Top Gun: Maverick had major star power behind it in Tom Cruise (who might receive overdue Oscar love this year for Digger).
Is Obsession the movie of the moment? Or is it just…a fun movie? You can be a good film without having an Oscar.
I agree that the Navarrette nomination is far from obvious at this point. To me, the strongest point for the nomination right now is that, at least so far, very few of the movies being earmarked as possible big contenders for the season seem to have female leads and in searching for contenders, it becomes easy to name someone you've already seen.
However, I think for something like a horror movie to break into an Oscar lineup, though it has become easier, it still requires a large push for sometimes limited gains. Get Out, The Substance and Weapons all reached various levels of success but the attention was always very fixed to above the line stuff, starting from one category (in the case Get Out Original Screenplay and in the case of The Substance and Weapons from the buzzed about performances) and then attempting to spread from there to other categories above the line. This campaign structure can be efficient but it always has this synthetic sense that every category had to be pried from the voters, instead of the type of nominee (from this group of movies, only Sinners managed to become this) that is automatically treated as a contender holistically.
So, with Navarrette specifically, the first question is whether the Obsession campaign starts with her, the screenplay or whether they start the discussion at a Best Picture nomination. Then, especially if the tip of the spear is not her (which is a harder road than Madigan had due to reasons Megan mentions here along with the size of the respetive movies and questions about whether critics will rally around Obsession at the end of the year in the way they did with Weapons), the question becomes whether the campaign around Obsession can shift from "this made a lot of money, so you should award it" to something that gets Academy voters to feel like it's meaningful to vote for this movie. If this succeeds, perhaps even to the degree that the film gets a Best Picture nomination, there should be no reason for Navarrette to miss. But I don't think this is a given yet.
Then again, I was rather doubtful of the Madigan thing last year as well because I never really understood why her performance was the thing that people were so excited with that movie (she's good but I thought she was at the general level of quality within that movie rather than the obvious standout thing). So, if by the end of TIFF people are still talking about Navarrette with similar urgency (and the field doesn't start to feel notably more competetive), I'll take that as a sign that a consensus has formed to a degree that is very difficult to unravel and just start predicting her.
Thank you for reading! What do you think of Rachel McAdams in Send Help? That's also a popular horror film with a beloved director. (Clearly asking for a friend/fan LOL)
In terms of Oscar: I think the movie needed to stay in people’s minds for longer, rather than being perceived as a fun January lark.
In terms of personal preference: it’s an exceptional performance in a wonderful film. I’d love to see some level of campaign for her.
I've never really bought the whole Inde Navarrette narrative, if I'm honest. It always felt more like Film Twitter and horror fans willing it into existence than something that was likely to translate with the Academy. Demi Moore had a genuine comeback narrative, Amy Madigan was a respected veteran, and The Substance overperformed across the board. Obsession feels far less likely to have that kind of support. I'd be surprised if it managed much beyond a possible Original Screenplay nomination, and even that feels far from certain.
I agree!