Best Actress 2027: Sorry, Inde is Not a Lock for a Nomination

Hey, guys. Did you know we’re still a month out from Telluride and TIFF?

You might not know this if you’ve been on the artist formerly known as Twitter lately, where people are not just debating whether Inde Navarrette gets in for Best Actress for Obsession, but the odds of her winning. WINNING. (It’s summer, guys.)

The discourse amped up after Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture put her in his top spot for Best Actress (this, after he notably didn’t include Amy Madigan in his initial predictions last year).

A lot of people are saying that Amy Madigan winning for Weapons and Demi Moore being nominated for The Substance equals a guaranteed nomination for Inde, but not so fast. While horror is certainly having a moment at the Oscars, just because it’s a good performance doesn’t mean she’s in (I’m still banging the drum for Rachel McAdams in Send Help, after all!).

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Inde could get in, but this isn’t the same discussion as last year with Amy Madigan. First, Amy had been nominated before. Second, she has been working in the business for decades. Let’s face it: Amy Madigan winning the Oscar for Gladys was a completely bonkers win, which is what made it so great (even Madigan herself was consistently shocked to find herself on the podium). Wins like this don’t happen very often, so why expect it to happen two years in a row, for an actress’s breakout film?

What Inde has going for her is that she’s in one of the most successful films of the year, an unexpected hit everyone is still talking about. But while the Academy makeup is changing, there’s still that idea of a prestige picture versus a blockbuster — and I tend to see Obsession as more of a blockbuster, less of an Academy film, the same way everyone said Challengers was going to be up for every Oscar (it received 0 nominations).

The Odyssey is also a huge box office hit — featuring Oscar winners. Do we really think Inde would take Anne’s spot if she goes lead? (I don’t.)

But Megan: What about Sinners? Top Gun: Maverick? These films were blockbusters that made it to the Dolby Theatre?

But these films had a historical element (both literal and contextual!) mixed with overdue narratives. Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan have been working steadily together for years before they finally got serious awards recognition last year. (Unbelievably, this was Jordan’s FIRST NOMINATION!). Top Gun: Maverick came out at a time when movie theaters really needed a win, and they made people love movies again. I think some people forget how even more dire it was five years ago compared to now.

Plus, Top Gun: Maverick had major star power behind it in Tom Cruise (who might receive overdue Oscar love this year for Digger).

Is Obsession the movie of the moment? Or is it just…a fun movie? You can be a good film without having an Oscar.