2026 Best Actor Oscar Predictions: Why Not Leonardo DiCaprio?

Early reactions to One Battle After Another are nearly unanimous raves. So why isn’t Leonardo DiCaprio the Best Actor Oscar frontrunner?

Fair warning: I have yet to see Paul Thomas Anderson’s reportedly excellent One Battle After Another. Honestly, I feel as if I’m the only one who hasn’t. These early raves are something to behold, and it appears that Warner Bros. allows the same people to see it multiple times without hosting regional screenings. Anyway, I’ll see the Leonardo DiCaprio film with a paying audience next weekend. It won’t be on an IMAX or 70MM or VistaVision projection, but that’s okay right? I’m not a bad person for that, right?

Anyway, one of the most interesting items to stem from the broad proclamations that “the race is over” remains the treatment of Leonardo DiCaprio in relation to Best Actor. If the film is The Frontrunner and if The Race Is Over (I don’t think it is, not on September 19, anyway), then why isn’t DiCaprio the Best Actor frontrunner? Recently, the Oscar winner for Best Picture goes hand-in-hand with a major acting win. It’s not a foolproof formula, of course, and it does trend more toward the “New Academy” than the pre-Green Book days. Yet, it’s something worth looking at.

Take a look at the last 10 years of Best Picture winners and the Best Actor / Actress winners that accompanied them.

• 2024: Anora — Mikey Madison, Best Actress
• 2023: Oppenheimer — Cillian Murphy, Best Actor
• 2022: Everything Everywhere All At Once — Michelle Yeoh, Best Actress
• 2021: CODA — None (Troy Kotsur, Supporting Actor winner)
• 2020: Nomadland — Frances McDormand, Best Actress
• 2019: Parasite — None
• 2018: Green Book — None (Viggo Mortensen, Best Actor nominee; Mahershala Ali, Supporting Actor winner)
• 2017: The Shape of Water — None (Sally Hawkins, Best Actress nominee)
• 2016: Moonlight — None (Mahershala Ali, Supporting Actor winner)
• 2015: Spotlight — None (Supporting nominations)

We obviously lack a great deal of supporting evidence since the massive Academy membership changes initiated after Green Book won Best Picture. Yet, a trend is definitely emerging in the subsequent six years of data. Of those years, only two Best Picture winners failed to garner a major acting win: CODA and Parasite. Mostly an ensemble piece, CODA did win a Supporting Actor Oscar for Troy Kotsur. Parasite broke all the rules. No acting nominations. Foreign language film. Still won Best Picture.

What About Leo?

Moving forward to this year, let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that One Battle After Another emerges as the Best Picture frontrunner. Let’s say it’s undeniable. It certainly has a narrative behind it. Paul Thomas Anderson delivered some of the most acclaimed films of the last 30 years and has yet to win a single Oscar. Granted, he doesn’t make films that appeal to a broad audience. In fact, I would argue he hasn’t blended art and entertainment successfully since 1997’s Boogie Nights. One Battle After Another apparently returns him to that magic blend.

So why aren’t Oscar prognosticators pushing Leonardo DiCaprio to the top of their Best Actor lists?

Lake at Gold Derby’s Experts Best Actor Predictions (linked for you so you can easily find it). The buzz from first screenings (I.E. – the David Erlich tweet) broke on One Battle roughly a week ago. Official reviews broke yesterday. Of the 16 experts who updated their predictions around that window, five don’t even have DiCaprio in their top five. Of those who have him in, four have him in the fourth or fifth slot. Many, of course, have him in the frontrunner position. That makes sense as those who do mostly have One Battle winning Best Picture. They’re following the right rule.

So, what gives? Why hasn’t DiCaprio elevated to the Best Actor frontrunner in alignment with One Battle After Another for Best Picture? I’ll know more when I see the film next week. Right now, I only have guesses. Maybe the role isn’t worthy of a second Best Actor win. He’s always good, but the trailers don’t exactly scream “Oscar-winning performance!” Or maybe it’s too early in the season, and he eventually will matriculate into the frontrunner position. Or maybe One Battle After Another isn’t the Best Picture frontrunner. Maybe it only takes home Best Director, which would make sense since the film’s narrative is most closely aligned with Anderson.

I don’t have Leonardo DiCaprio in my top five currently. Maybe that will change when I see the film next week. I keep thinking back to Killers of the Flower Moon and his fantastic work in Scorsese’s midwestern epic. He failed to garner a nomination there when the film had broad Academy support. Will One Battle After Another be any different?

The Best Actor Lineup

What’s fun about the Best Actor race (and really the Oscar race in general) is that there isn’t a solidly identifiable frontrunner at this stage. Many have Timothée Chalamet in the lead for his sight-unseen performance in Marty Supreme. That makes sense, I suppose, given that Chalamet lost last year after being a frontrunner for so long for A Complete Unknown. That loss will always strike me as interesting as The Academy decided it would be much more appropriate to give Adrien Brody his second Oscar rather than Timmy Tim his first. We won’t know for a few weeks whether or not Marty Supreme has the goods to support another Chalamet nomination. Someone has faith in it, though, given the Christmas release positioning.

There’s also Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. He’s a much more likely frontrunner right now. Audiences have seen the film at Telluride, and it will screen next week at the New York Film Festival before debuting in theaters on October 24. White has a few favors in his corner. First, he’s a beloved actor with a profile elevated by multiple award wins for The Bear. Second, he’s really, really good in the film, even if the film is mid at best. He doesn’t exactly look like Springsteen (actually, not at all), but he has the Springsteen aura. Did I imagine The Bear‘s Carmy with a guitar? Yes, I did at times given the script’s struggles with depression. Will others have the same reaction or will that hold him back? TBD. Finally, Springsteen himself seems to love White’s interpretation. If he runs the circuit through the voting window (festivals, guild and Academy screenings), then love for Springsteen will push the film into the Best Picture ten and could push White into the frontrunner position.

Paul Mescal gives a career-best performance in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet playing William (Will) Shakespeare. He is getting nominated, for sure, but can he be a frontrunner? If The Academy falls all over themselves for the film, then yes both actors (Mescal along with co-star Jessie Buckley) could win matching Oscars. It’s too early to see that happening. Some have even whispered that Mescal’s turn is really a supporting play (I don’t agree). If Hamnet becomes the frontrunner, then it carries with it a major acting award. Personally, I find it much more likely that Buckley gets that win over Mescal. But he will be nominated.

I’m surprised at how many experts have Michael B. Jordan in their top five and even winning for Sinners. Again, that makes sense if you think Sinners is winning Best Picture. When I saw and loved it, I thought it would at best get a supporting nomination for Delroy Lindo or maybe Hailee Steinfeld or hopefully Wunmi Mosaku. Jordan gives a strong performance, and he’s playing twins which never hurts. But I felt the film’s more action-oriented final act stripped him of meatier performance opportunities. The narrative shifts away from Jordan’s characters toward Miles Caton’s Sammie. I think there are better performances this year, but I wouldn’t be upset if he got in. Personally, I don’t think it’s likely.

I would round out my top five with Blue Moon‘s Ethan Hawke and The Smashing Machine‘s Dwayne Johnson. Hawke’s performance is one of the best he’s ever given, maybe the best he’s ever been. It’s an “actor-y” performance, meaning he completely transformed himself with hair / makeup and radically different speaking and movement mannerisms. But most importantly, he captures the soul of songwriter Lorenz Hart and absolutely compels you to care about this man. Directed by Richard Linklater, Blue Moon is a very small film that will need critics and guild support to sustain it through the year. But you absolutely must see Hawke — he’s the real deal.

I haven’t seen The Smashing Machine, but that strong Venice birth coupled with the film’s Best Director win means that Johnson’s here for the game. The trailer has that “I can’t believe that’s The Rock” vibe, and reportedly, he delivers the goods under all of that makeup. The film won’t be a Best Picture contender, but it could come away with two performance nominations for Johnson and Emily Blunt.

Other major Best Actor contenders at this stage in the game include the return of Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone), newcomer Tonatiuh (Kiss of the Spider Woman), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), one-time frontrunner Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family, although that buzz seems to have died ever since the film failed to register at TIFF), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), and Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player).

My Current Best Actor Predictions

1. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Highest Runners-Up Should Someone Fall: Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)