2025 has become one of the most fabulously fierce and competitive years for lead female awards contenders.
First we had an Oscar race where no less than four truly worthy performances (Nicole Kidman, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Tilda Swinton & Angelina Jolie) were overlooked for five (mostly) deserving candidates. And we had a consecutive laudable winner (Mikey Madison).
The Emmy races for leading actress in a comedy, drama and limited series are ridiculously overstuffed with truly worthy turns from thesps like Keri Russell, Kathy Bates, Keira Knightley, Jean Smart, Tina Fey, Kristen Bell, Michelle Williams, Ellen Pompeo & Cate Blanchett.
And, for the first time in decades, the Best Actress in a Musical Tony category has at least 10 viable performers vying for just five (unless there’s a tie) slots. I mention the tie possibility because last year the Featured Actress in a Musical category ended up with seven nominees—so you never know.
This is such a refreshing change from previous years (especially last year) when the pickings were super slim.
It’s been a truly exciting Broadway season, and the Tony nominating committee has their work cut out for them. I’m sure many worthy performances and achievements will be left off the final lists, which is usually the case, but this year it’s practically inevitable.
Before I handicap the this oh-so-contentious category, allow me to also mention that Best Actress in a Play is also crowded with great performances from Laura Donnelly in The Hills of California, Sarah Snook in The Picture of Dorian Gray, LaTanya Richardson Jackson in Purpose, Sadie Sink in John Proctor Is the Villain and both Patti LuPone and Mia Farrow in Roommates. Sink should honestly be in Featured since Proctor is such an ensemble piece, but she’s likely lead since she’s above the title–so it looks like LuPone will prob be elbowed out–a shame because she was fab. My early guess is that this is the year for the Snookery win! Interesting to note that last year, another powerhouse, one-person performance took home the gold two years ago, Jodie Comer for Prima Facie.
No onto the dazzling ladies who sing and dance and act…and have enthralled us this season.
There is one performance I have yet to see and will be seeing next week, so for this piece I won’t be considering Tatiana Cordoba for Real Women Have Curves. For the record, I have heard from numerous sources that Cordoba is a definite dark horse contender.
Note: The Tony Awards Administration Committee has deemed that both Bernadette Peters and Lea Salonga will be competing in the Featured Actress in a Musical category for Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends.
I believe it’s safe to rule out Katie Brayben even though she, oddly, won the Olivier for her performance in the excruciating mess that was Tammy Faye—the only Broadway show I have ever left at intermission. EVER.
I also think Robyn Hurder’s chances are slim in another Great White train wreck, Smash. Not because she’s not good but because her role is muddied by the misguided addition of two other Marilyns, and a confused book. Still, if Smash sees some kind of nominations sweep, her name could be on the list. (Tony voters have nominated much worse.)
The remaining 10 eligible actresses all have a shot at being recognized. I will begin in order of the predicted (and hopeful) winner.
Nicole Scherzinger in Sunset Blvd.
Early in the season, I apprehensively attended Jamie Lloyd’s ingeniously reimagined, minimalist production of the Andrew Lloyd Webber musical and was blown away by Nicole Scherzinger, someone I was not super familiar with beyond a Pussycat Dolls song here and there, a YouTube performance and the fact that she won the Olivier. I wrote in my review:
“Nicole Scherzinger’s bold, multi-faceted, ferocious performance, teeming with pent-up sexual tension and a fervent desire to return to what she loves, is the stuff of instant legend. She may have just opened here, but she’s making her mark the way Merman, LuPone, Peters, Lansbury and so many of the best stage actors have done—as one of (to paraphrase the show) the greatest stars of all.”
I’ve now seen Scherzinger in the show three times, and her performance just gets richer, more nuanced, more unhinged and more beguiling. Even those turned off by Lloyd’s audacity wouldn’t dare omit her. There were some loud online grumblings that tried to take this titanic talent down a few months back, but hopefully Tony voters will look past the barrage of social media blather. Hopefully…
This would be her first nomination. Beyond deserved. Oh, and the win would be, too.
Audra McDonald in Gypsy
Audra McDonald certainly delivers the goods in Georg C. Wolfe’s revival of the Styne/Sondheim show Gypsy, and she will receive her 11th nomination for certain. Her acting is a triumph. McDonald already has six Tony Awards, three more than LuPone and four more than Peters. (Fair?) Her wins were for Carousel (1994’s Best Featured Actress in a Musical), Master Class (1996’s Best Featured Actress in a Play), Ragtime (1998’s Best Featured Actress in a Musical), A Raisin in the Sun (2004’s Best Featured Actress in a Play), Porgy and Bess (2012’s Best Actress in a Musical) and Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill (2014’s Best Actress in a Play)–so, wins in all four acting categories.
Also, her 11th nomination will be a record in itself, beating both Julie Harris and Chita Rivera, as the actor (male or female) with the most nominations in Tony history. Perhaps that’s reward enough for this great diva?
Megan Hilty & Jennifer Simard in Death Becomes Her
I cannot imagine one of these amazingly gifted artists getting a nomination without the other, ergo, they must both be nommed!
Even though their performances are distinctly different, the success of the show hinges on their uber-impressive interlocked turns—madcap, diva-licious displays of hilarity, poignancy and female empowerment. This would only be Megan Hilty’s second Tony nomination. She was previously named for her last Broadway outing, the 2016 revival of Noises Off as Best Featured Actress in a Play. Jennifer Simard has two past mentions, both in the Featured Actress in a Musical category, for Disaster! in 2016 and for the keen Company revival in 2022. This would mark both Hilty and Simard’s first noms in the lead musical category.
This fifth spot is difficult, but I have to go with…
Jasmine Amy Rogers in BOOP! The Musical
Maybe it’s wishful thinking on my part but Jasmine Amy Rogers is just the bees knees, the cat’s meow, the bomb—she’s soooo great in BOOP! This is the kind of Broadway debut that warrants accolades. Rogers manages to bring a cartoon character to glorious technicolor life and send a powerful message out to audiences. And her scenes with the fabtastic Ainsley Melham as Betty’s handsome and supportive beau are the stuff of old Hollywood magic sprinkled with some sizzling 2025 NYC chem.
It’s all going to come down to how much the Tony peeps appreciate BOOP! But I’m betting on Betty.
The five who also have a (slimmer) chance:
Sutton Foster in Once Upon a Mattress
Sutton Foster has been dazzling us on Broadway for three decades–hard to believe–so her iconic status is not up for debate. She’s been nominated for seven Tonys and has nabbed two for Best Actress in a Musical for Thoroughly Modern Millie in 2002 and the Anything Goes revival in 2011. To say she’s beloved is an understatement and in the summer revival of Once Upon a Mattress, which started life at the Encores! Concert Series, she garnered some great notices for her absolutely hilarious turn as Princess Winnifred. Sure, she was the reason to see the show, but what a reason! The one thing working against her is that the show closed back in late November.
Helen J. Shen in Maybe Happy Ending
Certain critics went gaga over the quiet but endearing musical Maybe Happy Ending. I even headlined that it ‘May Be Broadway’s Best New Musical,’ back in November. But very few new musicals had opened. I did love its oddball uniqueness and there’s great chemistry between the Darren Criss and Helen J. Shen, who is a delight in her Broadway debut. She was also terrific in the recent off-Broadway musicals, The Lonely Few and Teeth, which doesn’t hurt her chances. I suspect there will be much love bestowed on this production come Tony morning including a nod for Criss, so it is quite possible Shen could ride that wave.
Natasha Hodgson in Operation Mincemeat
Like Sadie Sink, this is a case of category fraud, and not in Natasha Hodgson’s favor! She is part of a wonderful ensemble in the sensational Brit import, Operation Mincemeat, so to place her in lead is rather ridiculous but the Olivier’s did the same thing. Make it all make sense! In Featured she would have had a great shot but Mincemeat needs to do a nom sweep on May 1st for her to get recognized in lead. This would be her first Tony nomination. And the Olivier mention does not hurt!
Idina Menzel in Redwood
Another Broadway vet, Idina Menzel, has quite the fan base and, although Redwood got mostly tepid notices, Tony nominators have nominated performances that critics have panned many times in the past—just last year Gayle Rankin received very hostile reviews for Cabaret but made the final five. And, for the record, while I didn’t love Redwood, I thought Menzel did a fine job and boy can she belt a tune! Also, key to note that she has three nominations to her credit, Rent in 1996 (Best Featured Actress in a Musical), Wicked in 2000 (Best Actress in a Musical, which she won) and If/Then in 2014 ( Best Actress in a Musical)—basically every part she ever originated on Broadway she’s been recognized for. So, rule her out at your own peril.
Adrienne Warren in The Last Five Years
Adrienne Warren is a powerhouse performer. She made her Broadway debut in Bring It On in 2012 and received her first Tony nomination in 2016 for Shuffle Along (Best Featured Actress in a Musical). Damn Yankees followed in 2017 and in 2019 she won the Tony for Tina: The Tina Turner Musical–and was Olivier nommed a few months earlier. And while The Last Five Years received mixed notices, she walked away with most of the praise. I think if the show were more substantive, she would be a stronger contender, but she does have some amazing moments.
Final Predictions:
Nicole Scherzinger
Audra McDonald
Megan Hilty
Jennifer Simard
Jasmine Amy Rogers
Look out for:
Sutton Foster
Helen J. Shen
Tatiana Cordoba
Predicted winner: It will be a showdown between Nicole and Audra. Nicole should pull it off. If the front-runners split, Jennifer Simard could squeak in.
Thank you for this amazing article! I don't follow the Tonys as much as other awards, but this made me excited.
Thank you, Julie. For reading!
I think Operation Mincemeat is all about Jak Malone, His rendering of Dear Bill is phenomenal. Throw in that he plays the eccentric morgue guy and, well, that's all the versatility one can get. The show got Olivier Awards, but it's not splashy enough for Broadway, so I suspect Hodgsen is out.
People who have seen Maybe Happy Ending seem to gush. I think Shen is in. But I suspect Criss will be the one to take home the trophy.
I can't imagine MacDonald winning here, I feel the producers were talking that 7th Tony before she was even offered the role, but I think for her to win another she will have to originate a role.
Shen definitely has a good shot because of all the love for MAYBE but the question becomes who does she bump? Probably Rogers, which would be shame. Or Hilty. Even Scherzinger isn't totally safe. I won't rest easy until nominations. That Scherzinger backlash could rear its ugly head. This category will be a nail-biter.