Let’s get one thing out of the way: KPop Demon Hunters is winning the Oscar.
The film was a phenomenon when it came out in a way no one saw coming, creating a sense of discovery for everyone. It has also addressed one of the biggest online complaints about women in superheroes movies by having female characters with personalities. They were goofy, girly, had silly crushes, could be super confident and then have serious doubts. They also were great fighters and singers that made us root for them. Even people who have some issues with the film do not hate it. My own nephew thinks the battle at the end should have had less singing to beat the villain, but still loves the film. Add to that the music from the film has been some of the most successful of the year, with the song “Golden” also being a frontrunner for Best Song at the Oscars. It has a great narrative all around.
Zootopia 2 was the one film everyone watching this category was waiting to come out to see what it would do. The first film won this category in 2017 and this was Disney’s big push this year. The consensus was that it did fine. The reviews were solid and it made tons of money and, while everyone liked it, no one seemed to be singing its praises. It was a funny film with some very good new characters, and with Judy and Nick and some legitimately heartwarming moments. That was a win for Disney when they seemed to be losing ground in the animation field, but I doubt it gets anything outside of a nomination.
Last year when The Wild Robot was the big mainstream film that seemed unstoppable, Flow was there as the critically acclaimed indie film that was always the alternative to it, and in the end Flow was able to triumph. Indie animation is definitely still in the conversation this year, with Arco and Little Amélie or the Character of Rain being the two most likely to get in. They have gotten into the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice awards. But while these indie animated films are doing well nomination-wise and have won some critics awards, neither has achieved the level of passion that Flow had, but I think their nominations are safe. Also, if they get in, it will be the second year in a row that the films that won the Annecy International Animation Film Festival’s Cristal Award for Best Feature Film or the Audience Award are also Oscar nominees. Then this is a festival we will really have to keep an eye on in the future.
The fifth spot is the hardest to figure out.
For a while previous nominee director Mamoru Hosoda’s film Scarlet seemed likely, but the reviews were very mixed and it hasn’t gotten almost any precursor love. Netflix’s In Your Dreams has gotten in some places but again the reviews have been mixed. While Netflix is capable of getting two films nominated, I do not think they will put a lot of focus here. I am guessing it is down to Pixar’s Elio or Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.
Both have some issues. While Pixar has dominated this category in the past it has been losing ground in recent years, getting nominations but never being a contender to win. Elio was a box office flop and critics weren’t particularly excited. If it gets in, it would be due to Pixar’s overall goodwill in this category, and the fact that the film is still gorgeous to look at, with a positive message. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle got a surprise nomination at the Golden Globes and was a huge box office success. But while anime films have gotten into this category before, all but one was a Studio Ghibli film, and all of them have been stand-alone movies. Demon Slayer has four seasons and a previous movie before this film. How many people have seen all of them? Or, if they haven’t seen the previous material, will they be too lost on what is going on to get into this film? This is also an action anime, something that has never made it into this category before.
Right now I am leaning more towards Demon Slayer for three reasons. The Academy has been changing over the last few years and is more international than ever before, and Demon Slayer is a huge international hit. Second, anime as a style has been gaining more ground in the mainstream. At some point it will start getting into these big award bodies like the Oscars and Emmys. Third, passion for a film has become more essential than ever to get an Oscar nomination, and I do not know if Elio has that much support behind it.
Or I am overthinking it and Pixar has a slot locked up.
