Happy Tuesday, dear readers! Each week, we’ll rank the top 10 films in a specific category. While we aim to tie these lists to big releases, that won’t always be the case. Our goal? For you to enjoy, share your own lists, and join in on a lively, friendly debate. This is an interactive space to build community here at The Contending.
No fancy intros, no long essays – just a category and a list. Sound good?
It was just last year that I called it the toughest Oscar race to predict in a long time. Well, the Academy said “hold my beer” and presented us with an even trickier slate of contenders to sort through for 2026 Oscar predictions. It may take hindsight to know whether this year was truly as difficult as it feels. A lot may depend on how many Oscars One Battle After Another takes. Will it be, I swear for the last time, one Oscar after another? Or will Sinners put a stake through the heart of PTA fans?
Last year, I posted the ten hardest races to call, though only seven turned out to be truly competitive. This year, I’m staring at ten categories that still feel unsettled in my 2026 Oscar predictions, and that’s not even counting the three pesky short film races, which are always a coin flip. Over the past 20 years, I have only missed Best Picture twice: when Moonlight upset La La Land and when Parasite toppled 1917. This race feels even tighter than those did, which should make for a pretty great Academy Awards.
The Oscars are this Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT on ABC.
Let’s get to it!
10. Sound – F1 (CAS, AMPS, BAFTA, CCA) vs Sinners (MPSE)
9. Casting – Sinners (SAG, CSA, CCA) vs. One Battle After Another (perceived frontrunner for Picture) vs. The Field (this is the first time this Oscar is handed out, anything could happen, right?)
8. Film Editing – One Battle After Another (BAFTA, ACE) vs. Sinners (ACE, CCA)
7. Supporting Actor – Sean Penn (BAFTA, SAG) vs. Delroy Lindo (growing sentiment around Sinners) vs. Stellan Skarsgård (because Penn already has two)
6. Cinematography – One Battle After Another (ASC, BSC, BAFTA) vs. Sinners (first woman winner) vs. Train Dreams (because how can you not??)
5. International Feature – Sentimental Value (BAFTA) vs. The Secret Agent (Globes, CCA*)
4. Documentary Feature – The Perfect Neighbor (CCA) vs. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (BAFTA)
3. Supporting Actress – Amy Madigan (SAG, CCA) vs. Teyana Taylor (Globes) vs. Wunmi Mosaku (BAFTA)
2. Best Picture – One Battle After Another vs. Sinners
1. Lead Actor – Michael B. Jordan (SAG) vs. Timothee Chalamet (CCA, Globe) vs. Wagner Moura (Globe) vs. Ethan Hawke (veteran) vs. Leonardo DiCaprio (star of the front-runner)
In all honesty, I think the toughest is Best Picture. People think it's not… And they're wrong. No matter the outcome, pretty much.
Is Critics Choice using ranked choice ballot (just like PGA and Oscars) to determine the BP winner..?
I didn’t find any specific info on this so I’m asking you. 🙂
They used to have like 200 members 5-6 years ago but now they have around 600 members. Not as big a number as the guilds or AMPAS have but 600 is still significant. Their BP picks might matter more going forward.
I believe it has been established that they do not. I could probably try to find the conversation in my files, but it would take a while… But I'm almost certain. I know it's been discussed repeatedly and re-confirmed recently, last year or the year before.
What gives me pause is that they have 10 movie BP lineup just like PGA and Oscars so it might make sense to have a ranked choice ballot in order to eliminate the possibility of a 11% vote getter winning the top prize in a plurality ballot.
Anora’s BP win at CC last season (despite winning no other prize there) just strengthened my suspicions. It wasn’t strong to win in any individual category but thanks to ranked choice voting (being 2nd or 3rd on the most ballots) helped it a big deal in pulling off the BP win.
Yes, others have used this argument. But, again, it was confirmed that they don't. 🙂
"Anora's BP win at CC last season (despite winning no other prize there) just strengthened my suspicions. It wasn't strong to win in any individual category but thanks to ranked choice voting (being 2nd or 3rd on the most ballots) helped it a big deal in pulling off the BP win."
Well, this has happened before in places with 5 in a category and definitely no preferential. Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave, both, I think, won the Drama Globe and nothing else. The former, definitely. The Power of the Dog won just picture and director at BAFTA. (And there was no competition in director.) I suspect there are other, older examples.