Oscars 2026: Can Sydney Sweeney Break Into This Year’s Best Actress Race?

Last week at the Virginia Film Festival, I was able to catch four of the leading contenders for best actress at next year’s Oscars. Three of the four would appear to be likely nominees at this point. 

Jessie Buckley in Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet isn’t just a likely nominee; she’s probably the frontrunner to take home the statue. 

Renate Reinsve is outstanding in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, and a likely nominee, even if the film is very much an ensemble.

Amanda Seyfried gives the performance of her life (no small statement) in The Testament of Ann Lee, and as that film continues to gain press, her nomination chances will gain traction.

That leaves the fourth outstanding performance by a female actor in a lead role that I viewed recently: Sydney Sweeney in Christy. 

Since her breakout role on Euphoria, Sweeney has become something of a lightning rod in the press and on social media. Initially, her old-school Hollywood beauty was the focus of attention. Next came her politics. In 2022, at her mother’s 60th birthday party, there were reports of red MAGA hats coupled with “Blue Lives Matter” t-shirts. The party was described as MAGA-themed, despite no clear confirmation. Sweeney has stated that those wearing those hats and shirts were family friends, but not members of her family. Most recently, Sweeney took significant heat for taking part in an American Eagle campaign featuring Sweeney in denim, and playing on the word jeans in such a way that it appeared that jeans and “genes” were interchangeable. The ad was strongly criticized as being everything from tone-deaf to full-on pro-white supremacy. 

The focus on Sweeney’s face and body is not unique to Hollywood or our culture, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon, if ever. As for Sweeney’s politics, while she is believed to be a registered Republican, it’s unclear whom she voted for in 2024. Making her perspective even murkier is the fact that she has spoken out for LGBTQ+ and trans rights, Black Lives Matter, and is staunchly pro-choice. None of those distinctions put her in step with today’s Republican Party. For her part, Sweeney had not clarified her political stance, leaving her political perspective unclear, if not downright murky. Sweeney has also not addressed the American Eagle controversy. By not stepping forward on her politics or the jeans/genes ad, Sweeney has allowed supposition and conjecture (along with trace evidence) to take hold. 

But here’s what I would ask about all of the above:

What does any of it have to do with acting?

As a card-carrying liberal myself, I am aware that if what is rumored about Sweeney’s political persuasion turns out to be true, I disagree with how she pulls a lever in a voting booth. I also understand the discomfort the American Eagle advert caused. I grimaced while viewing it as well. On the other hand, I do think it’s important to separate art from the artist. 

Actors like Mel Gibson, Jon Voight, and James Woods have all made it much clearer where they land politically. They are all pro-MAGA and have often made incendiary, and even vile, public comments on race, sexuality, immigration, and any number of issues. Does that mean they can’t act? No. I’ve seen those on my side of the political spectrum go so far as to attempt to reverse engineer the careers of actors they’ve discovered to be right-leaning, even to the point of dismissing their previous work. “I never liked them anyway,” or “They can’t act,” are statements I’ve heard before.

In the dispiriting and polarizing times we live in, it’s understandable for those who revile the MAGA perspective to hold favorable Trump views against the individual on a profoundly personal level. I am not immune to that reactionary response. Still, if someone is a good pilot, athlete, or actor, should we deny that distinction?

Because here is what Christy proved: Sydney Sweeney is a very good actor. That shouldn’t be news, considering the acclaimed work she’s delivered in Euphoria, The White Lotus, and Reality. Sweeney has twice been nominated for an Emmy (Euphoria and The White Lotus), and Lotus creator Mike White and Christy co-star Ben Foster both speak well of her professionally and personally. 

As good as Sweeney has been in previous productions, her work in Christy is a game-changing performance. It’s the type of work that changes your impression of an actor forever. It’s akin to Mark Wahlberg in Boogie Nights, Jennifer Lopez in Out of Sight, or Zac Efron in The Iron Claw. Whether you liked them in previous projects or future ones, it is difficult, if not impossible, to deny their capacity to do great work. Once you’ve seen it happen, you can’t pretend it didn’t.

For more than a decade, I’ve covered boxing for multiple outlets. I’ve been a fan of the sport since I was a child. I have watched Christy Martin in the ring. I saw her harrowing documentary, Untold: Deal with the Devil, and earlier this year I interviewed her. As much as one can become another, Stephanie Sweeney becomes Christy Martin. 

The West Virginia coal country accent, the brash personality, the movements and gestures, and the physical transformation by Sweeney are all testaments to her commitment to her craft and skill. By the end of Christy, the difference between her and the real Christy Martin isn’t even negligible; it’s imperceptible. 

The best actress race is brutal this year. Aside from likely nominees Buckley, Reinsve, and Seyfreid, Kate Hudson’s late entry in Song Sung Blue is starting to make the category look at least 4/5 full. Perennial contender Emma Stone is in the mix for her latest collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos, Bogunia, which has the two-time winner once again in the mix. The decision by Warner Bros. to submit Chase Infiniti as a lead for One Battle After Another further crowds the field. The never-nominated, but fondly thought of, Rose Byrne is a strong contender for If I Had Legs I Would Kick You. The buzz is also strong for 2013 best actress winner Jennifer Lawrence in Lynne Ramsay’s, Die My Love, and what are the odds that the Academy isn’t going to nominate Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good, after doing so last year for Wicked?

If I were a betting man, I would say that Sweeney is a long shot for an Academy nod. Not only is there a lot of competition, but the way she is personally viewed does not benefit her. As well, the early reviews of Christy are more good than great (my own review falls under ‘great’). Christy opens in wide release on November 7, and if the film doesn’t connect with audiences, that would be another strike against Sweeney’s candidacy. For example, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson left the Venice Film Festival looking like a shoo-in for best actor after receiving a 15-minute standing ovation in Italy for The Smashing Machine. After the film flopped, the once sure thing is looking much less likely. 

Sweeney can only do so much to affect the film’s box office, its critical response, or how she is viewed off-screen. All she has control over is what kind of performance she gives when the director calls “action!” In Christy, Sweeney has set a marker for her worth as an actor. Were she to receive one of the Academy’s five nods for best actress on January 22, 2026, it would be no embarrassment to the award. She will have earned it.