Oscars 2027: Trying to Predict Best Actor? You Must Look at This Category

Among the 2027 Best Actor Oscar contenders, everyone’s looking to Andrew Scott to be the frontrunner right now for Elsinore. But there’s another important nomination to look for with him.

Now that TIFF, Venice, and Telluride are over, we kind of have an idea of who some of the Best Actor contenders are.

2027 Best Actor Oscar Contenders

Obviously, John Malkovich in Wild Horse Nine generated some serious buzz at each festival, especially Venice. Then, Andrew Scott in Elsinore was the talk of both TIFF and Telluride, while Primetime marks Robert Pattinson’s biggest role of the year, even coming off of The Odyssey. And speaking of The Odyssey, don’t count out Matt Damon in Lead Actor. He’s pretty much a lock.

Of course, Best Actor typically needs to have a Best Picture nod to go with it to win, although it’s not out of the realm of possibility: Jeff Bridges won without Crazy Heart being nominated in Best Picture and Brendan Fraser did it, too, just four years ago with The Whale.

However, both Jeff and Brendan had another secret weapon with them: a Best Supporting Actress nomination.

The Best Actor + Best Supporting Actress Nomination Rule

Maggie Gyllenhaal got a supporting actress nomination for Crazy Heart and so did Hong Chao in The Whale. (To me, I knew that Timothee Chalamet was going to lose for Marty Supreme last year as soon as the nominations came out and Odessa A’Zion was not on that ballot.)

This year, all of the lead Best Actor contenders have strong Supporting Actress ones as well, with Mariana di Girolamo in Wild Horse Nine, Olivia Colman in Elsinore, Merritt Weaver in Primetime, and Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey.

But who’s most likely to get in?

Obviously, Anne Hathaway is pretty much a lock if she goes supporting, whereas the other three are less stable. Di Girolamo is a breakout in WHN, but is it enough to get her a nomination? The good news is that she shares a lot of scenes with John Malkovich.

Meanwhile, Colman is good in Elsinore, but it’s not a flashy supporting part, and a lot of the work she’s doing is subtle. When it comes to Merritt Weaver, she’s beloved in the television industry when it comes to awards, but can she make the transition to film love?

Of course, there are the rare occurrences where Best Actor winners don’t have a supporting actress to go with them, including Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour, and Joaquin Phoenix in Joker. Two of these are biopics, so maybe that speaks to a specific trend and Andrew Scott wouldn’t need Colman to win (but he would probably need Elsinore to show up in Best Picture).

Right now, my 2027 Best Actor Oscar predictions are:

Matt Damon, The Odyssey
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Robert Pattinson, Primetime
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
*John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

I selected Turturro as the outsider pick, think: Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon and Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice.

And honestly, if I had to pick a frontrunner right now, I think we shouldn’t discount Matt Damon. He’s never won an acting Oscar, he’s in the biggest movie of the year, and he’s mostly pretty beloved by the community.

What do you think?