2026 Tony Award Nomination Predictions: The Lost Season…For Musicals

Heading into the May 5th announcement, here’s my take on what and who will be gifted Tony Award nominations, having seen most of the shows in contention. Note that it has been a good year for plays–especially revivals. Not so much for musicals. The Featured races are particularly competitive.

New Musical

With only six new musicals–only one truly original (Two Strangers)–the pickings are slim.

I was truly hoping that The Lost Boys would save the season (and the category). And while I found the first act dazzling and mighty promising, act two sent the show to hell by leaning too much into the silly comedy as well as sticking too closely to the plot of the film. When will creatives learn, if they MUST adapt a film, they need to reconceive the story for the STAGE? Such a shame because a couple of great performances get lost in the producers’ necessity to placate tourists and kowtow to the lowest common denominator. But it will still get a nomination, unless the category reduces to three.

Beaches is just dreadful. The Queen of Versailles rightly came and went quickly, so by process of elimination the nominees will be:

The Lost Boys

Schmigadoon!

Titanique

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

And, as of right now the award could go to any one of the four.

Revival of a Musical

Strangely, this category is even slimmer than new Musical (It has been a lousy year for musicals on the Great White Way), with only five possible shows (Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Chess, Mamma Mia!, Ragtime and The Rocky Horror Show), meaning its more than likely there will only be room for three. Mamma Mia! was the same-old, same-old. And while Chess was more than worthwhile, the misguided new book sabotages the show. But if the vote is close, we may get all four in.

Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Ragtime

The Rocky Horror Show

Ragtime was the front-runner until Cats opened. Now, it’s a two-show race. My vote would go to Rocky Horror.

New Play

This category is also a bit slim but has some powerhouse candidates.

The Eight plays eligible are Call Me Izzy, Dog Day Afternoon, Giant, Liberation, Little Bear Ridge Road, Punch, The Balusters and The Fear of 13.

Giant, Liberation and The Balusters look solid, leaving Dog Day Afternoon, Little Bear Ridge Road and Punch to duke it out. Punch should punch its way through, but critics went gaga over Little Bear Ridge Road. Neither are still playing so the lean might just be Dog Day.

Two seasons ago the brilliant Cult of Love, which had closed, was overlooked. Little Bear Ridge Road just won the New York Drama Critics’ Circle Award for Best Play, giving it the edge.

The Balusters

Giant

Liberation

Little Bear Ridge Road

Rooting for Punch to surprise.

Revival of a Play

Here we have a cornucopia of potentially great choices among the 11 revivals: (Art, Becky Shaw, Bug, Death of a Salesman, Every Brilliant Thing, Fallen Angels, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Marjorie Prime, Oedipus, Proof, Waiting for Godot). The Tony committee decided on some head scratching placements. It could be argued that Becky Shaw, Bug, Every Brilliant Thing and Marjorie Prime should all be in the new play category having never been mounted on Broadway. That used to be the rule. But consistency, schmonsistency…

Death of a Salesman, Oedipus and Becky Shaw—the best show of the entire season in my humble opinion—feel locked. I seem to be in a minority with my appreciation of Proof. Marjorie Prime was extraordinary and could be a spoiler. But the likely nominees are:

Becky Shaw

Death of a Salesman

Fallen Angels

Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Oedipus

Death vs Oedipus with Becky Shaw as the dark horse.

Note in the Acting categories: A category increases to five nominees only if there are nine or more eligible candidates.

Lead Actress in a Musical

Compared to last year’s powerhouse female performances, this category is pretty lackluster this season. But at least we’re getting Rachel Zegler’s Evita next year!

Stephanie Hsu was erroneously deemed lead for Rocky Horror. She would have been a shoo-in for Featured.  Kristin Chenoweth is beloved, but The Queen of Versailles was just not good. The main question is will they want to toss Beaches, easily the worst show of the season, a bone and nominate Jessica Vosk? It could happen. Hsu could too, if Rocky Horror is loved by the nominating committee.

Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!

Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Lea Michele, Chess

Marla Mindelle, Titaníque

Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Hsu could still oust someone, but who?

Oh, and the winner is anyone’s guess right now.

Lead Actor in a Musical

There are nine potential candidates so the category should increase to include five.

First and foremost, Tveit, who gave the best performance in Chess, should be in the Featured category. The committee really screwed up big time this year. Ditto the awesome Andrew Durand for Rocky Horror. Such a shame because those two terrific turns will now probably be overlooked. Alex Brightman is funny in Schmigadoon! but does little singing.

LJ Benet is one of the best things about The Lost Boys and should be included. That leaves the likely nominees:

Nicholas Christopher, Chess

Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show

Joshua Henry, Ragtime

Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime

Here’s hoping: Durand and Tveit shock.

Evans should win, but power balladist Henry probably will.

Lead Actress in a Play

Again, the schizophrenic Tony committee places Linda Loman, who is often lead for Death of a Salesman, in featured, paving the way for a double nomination for Laurie Metcalf. Feels calculated.

June Squibb, playing the titular Marjorie Prime, is also deemed Featured as is entire Joe Turner’s Come and Gone cast.

Carrie Coon received excellent reviews for Bug. So did Jean Smart for Call Me Izzy. But both shows have closed. Still, Coon’s work stays with you. Ayo Edebiri received mixed notices for her wonderful performance in Proof. Tessa Thompson has a shot for The Fear of 13 as does Anika Noni Rose for The Balusters.

Susannah Flood was excellent in Liberation and should be nominated, but who do you lose from the below list.

Manville is the one shoo in for her brilliant work in Oedipus. She will win.

I can’t imagine nominating Rose Byrne and overlooking her fab scene partner Kelli O’Hara for Fallen Angels.

So, we spin the wheel.

Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels

Carrie Coon, Bug

Lesley Manville, Oedipus

Laurie Metcalf, Little Bear Ridge Road

Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels

Here’s hoping Ayo can squeeze her way in!

Lead Actor in a Play

This category has powerhouse work by John Lithgow delivering a towering portrait of a mess of a man in Giant and Nathan Lane’s devastating turn as Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman. The slight lean tips to Lithgow, if only for his daring.

Two other actors look likely: Daniel Radcliffe’s perpetual optimist in Every Brilliant Thing and Mark Strong’s titular Oedipus.

That fifth spot gets mighty tricky.

Jon Bernthal gave us a different kind of Sonny in Dog Day Afternoon. Adrien Brody received an Olivier nomination for The Fear of 13, but the show was not well received by critics. James Corden walked away with most of the Art acclaim (over co-stars Bobby Cannavale & Neil Patrick Harris) but that was last year. Micah Stock received good notices for Little Bear Ridge Road, ditto Namir Smallwood in Bug. Keanu Reeves was formidable in the otherwise unbearable Waiting for Godot.

Will Harrison was brilliant in Punch. Period. Full-stop. So, he might be my wishful thinking selection but…

Will Harrison, Punch

John Lithgow, Giant

Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman

Mark Strong, Oedipus

Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing

Wouldn’t it be great if Lithgow and Lane split and Harrison won? Slow down, Frank. He needs to be nominated first.

Featured Actress in a Musical

Hannah Cruz should be a lock for killing it as Svetlana in Chess, but she’s not really being mentioned much.

The Rocky Horror Picture Show has Amber Gray, Rachel Dratch and Juliette Lewis — all possible.

Titanique boasts Deborah Cox and Melissa Barrera.

Schmigadoon! could see scene-stealers McKenzie Kurtz and Ana Gasteyer.

This category has way too many deserving candidates.

Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

Rachel Dratch, The Rocky Horror Show

McKenzie Kurtz, Schmigadoon!

Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime

“Tempress” Chasity Moore, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Hoping Cruz does make it. And look out for Gasteyer.

My guess is the beloved Bean wins this one.

Featured Actor in a Musical

Ali Louis Bourzgui is quite good in The Lost Boys in the Kiefer Sutherland part.

Titanique has a slew of contenders. Jim Parsons is a campy hoot. Constantine Rousouli is amazing and should receive recognition. But Layton Williams won the Olivier so that could give him the edge. And don’t forget John Riddle’s gay-ish Cal.

Let me complain again that Andrew Durand would have easily gotten in for Rocky Horror had the committee not committed category fraud.

Max Clayton, Schmigadoon!

André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Sydney James Harcourt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Jim Parsons, Titaníque

Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime

Ross should win, but De Shields is a beloved vet who gets a 5–15-minute standing ovation each performance, just for his entrance.

Featured Actress in a Play

Another ridiculously stacked category.

Metcalf has this for her amazing work in Death of a Salesman.

Becky Shaw features superb work by Linda Emond, Madeline Brewer and Lauren Patten.

Both June Squibb and Cynthia Nixon were terrific in Marjorie Prime.

Kara Young is nominated every year and her excellent work in Proof means she’s likely getting in again.

Giant’s powerhouse females include Aya Cash and Rachael Stirling. And I know it’s not going to happen, but Stella Everett deserves consideration for her final scene, sans dialogue.

In any other year, many of the actors in Liberation would make the cut. Betsy Aidem has the best shot, but Irene Sofia Lucio was equally good.

The women of Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Taraji P. Henson, Nimene Sierra Wureh, Maya Boyd & Abigail Onwunali, all do stellar work.

And Marylouise Burke & Maria-Christina Oliveras in The Balusters, Jessica Hecht in Dog Day Afternoon and Tracee Chimo in Fallen Angels steal their scenes.

So how to choose? Here goes:

Linda Emond, Becky Shaw

Jessica Hecht in Dog Day Afternoon

June Squibb, Marjorie Prime

Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman

Aya Cash, Giant

Likely spoilers: Kara Young and/or Betsy Aidem

Featured Actor in a Play

The Death of a Salesman boys (Ben Ahlers & Christopher Abbott) and the Joe Turner dudes (Ruben Santiago-Hudson & Joshua Boone) should all be in consideration. The Becky Shaw men (Alden Ehrenreich & Patrick Ball) were both terrific, but it was Ehrenreich who walked away with the acclaim.

Dog Day has Ebon Moss-Bacharach and John Ortiz and if the show were better received, I’d see them both as possibilities.

Don Cheadle and Jin Ha do worthy work in Proof.

Danny Burstein will break a Tony nomination record if he gets in for Marjorie Prime.

Also deserving, Charlie Thurston in Liberation, Richard Thomas in The Balusters and Elliot Levey in Giant.

So, among the many viable choices, here’s where I land—noting that the role of Happy has never received a Tony nomination. I think Ahlers will break that streak.

Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman

Ben Ahlers, Death of a Salesman

Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw

Joshua Boone, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Likely spoiler: Danny Burstein, because he is much beloved or Richard Thomas, ditto.

They all do masterful work, but Ehrenreich has an edge for the win.

Direction of a Musical

Lear deBessonet, Ragtime

Tim Jackson, Two Strangers

Zhailon Levingston & Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!

Sam Pinkleton, The Rocky Horror Show

Possible: Michael Arden for The Lost Boys or Tye Blue for Titanique (I’d be so happy)

The win tips towards deBessonet.

Direction of a Play

Trip Cullman, Becky Shaw

Nicholas Hytner, Giant

Robert Icke, Oedipus

Kenny Leon, The Balusters

Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman

Possible: Whitney White for Liberation, Debbie Allen for Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Scott Ellis for Fallen Angels, Anne Kauffman for Marjorie Prime, David Cromer for Bug.

Cullman should win. Mantello probably will win.