Now that Patti LuPone has apologized: forgive her, support her or sharpen your pitchforks, but WAIT until after Broadway’s biggest night.
This year’s Tony Awards will be one for the books since the 2024-25 season has featured more quality shows than in any other time in recent memory. Instead of the Tony nominating committee filling slots as has often happened in the past—especially these last few decades– the competition in most categories is fierce (Revival of a Play is the only real exception) and a number of great performances were, indeed, overlooked. That said, the Tony-nominating committee did a more-than-decent job of representing a fantastic season—one I see as a New Golden Age on Broadway.
This year’s awards boast a host of incredibly exciting and tight races, the most nail-biting being Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical. We’ll get to that one later.
There are 831 Tony voters who represent the industry, including actors, designers, playwrights, directors, producers and even some press, who are expected to see every show in contention and submit their votes by noon on June 6, 2025. Tune in Sunday, June 8th on Pluto TV at 6:40pm EST (Tech Awards) and CBS at 8pm EST for the network broadcast.
Here are my predictions and preferences as well as some of the overlooked.
Best Musical
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
This is a tricky category since, in the past decade, smaller shows have won (Fun Home, The Band’s Visit, A Strange Loop, Kimberly Akimbo) but so have large-scale productions (Hamilton, Hadestown, Moulin Rouge!) as well as last year’s victor, The Outsiders, a combination of both—and somewhat of a surprise. The past has seen outrageous selections (some in retrospect) like La Cage aux Folles over Sunday in the Park with George, Phantom of the Opera besting Into the Woods and Avenue Q over Wicked.
This season we have a three-way race with the critically-lauded Maybe Happy Ending competing against last year’s acclaimed-OB-darling, Dead Outlaw, with the audience-beloved, Death Becomes Her, gaining ground. Maybe Happy took the Drama Desk but Dead Outlaw won it last year in its OB run. Plus the DD’s are composed of mostly theater critics. It will be a photo finish. FYI: Swept Away was robbed of a nomination here and deserved longer run!
What Will Probably Win: Maybe Happy Ending
What Should Win: Dead Outlaw
What Should Have Been Nominated: Swept Away
Best Play
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor Is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose
It’s looking good for Oh, Mary!, but don’t completely rule out both John Proctor Is the Villain or Pulitzer-Prize and Drama-Desk winner Purpose.
What Will Probably Win: Oh, Mary!
What Should Win: John Proctor Is the Villain
What Should Have Been Nominated: Cult of Love
Best Revival of a Play
Eureka Day
Romeo and Juliet
Our Town
Yellow Face
The ho-hum, who-cares category. None of these revivals were great. Yellow Face was, at least, interesting. Eureka Day had a top-notch cast.
What Will Probably Win: Eureka Day
Best Revival of a Musical
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Blvd.
There’s only one brilliant, groundbreaking revival here: Sunset Blvd. Period. But Drama Desk went Gypsy and it seems to be gaining ground, especially after LuPone-gate. Toss up.
What Will Probably Win: Sunset Blvd.
What Should Win: Sunset Blvd.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.
Jonathan Groff, Just in Time
James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World
Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins
Talk about tough. Criss is doing amazing work. Durand is astounding. Francis is just brilliant (and won the Olivier). The only performance I did not see was Groff. I was deathly ill for the press performance and was told they were unable to accommodate me at any future performances. Curious. And disappointing.
Who Will Probably Win: Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Who Should Win: Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd. or Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw
Who Should Have Been Nominated: John Gallagher, Jr., Swept Away
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical
Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.
Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her
This is a STRONG category and all five nominees did stellar work. Anyone could win. The Outer Critics went with Rogers, who is fab. Drama Desk voters appeared to deliberately go out of their way to shun Scherzinger by awarding both McDonald and Rogers for Outstanding Lead Performance in a Musical.
Scherzinger gives the kind of performance a person never forgets. I’ve seen her three times and will be going back at least once more. She not only invigorates a great role but reinvents how we experience musical theater. But I’m not quite sure that will be enough since 6-time winner McDonald has many supporters, and many bloggers have made it political. In addition, the LuPone insanity has stirred up sympathy for her. If Scherzinger loses, she can take comfort in the fact that Kelli O’Hara, giving the performance of her life in The Bridges of Madison County, lost to a mediocre but popular jukebox performance I won’t even bother to name. She can also know she was wronged for political reasons and it’s her performance that will be remembered. Let’s hope the Tony voters get this one right.
Who Will Probably Win: Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her (because, why the hell not, she’s fierce!)
Who Should Win: Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Jon Michael Hill, Purpose
Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face
Harry Lennix, Purpose
Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Clooney has an outside chance, and McCartney is truly mesmerizing and could upset, but is there anyone more beloved than Escola right now?
Who Will Probably Win: Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Who Should Win: Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
Mia Farrow, The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose
Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villian
Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Another rich category and if Snook wasn’t in the mix then it would be Donnelly vs. Richardson Jackson. Alas, she is. Sink is fantastic but should have been placed in Featured, since John Proctor is an ensemble show.
Who Will Probably Win: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Who Should Win: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Patti LuPone, The Roommate (yes, her performance was damn good)
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas, SMASH
Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw
Danny Burstein, Gypsy
Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical
Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins
Who Will Probably Win: Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat
Who Should Win: Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Adrian Blake Enscoe, Swept Away, David Thaxton, Sunset Blvd., Ainsley Melham, BOOP!
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw
Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time
Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves: The Musical
Joy Woods, Gypsy
Who Will Probably Win: Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Who Should Win: Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw or Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Bonnie Langford, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, Beth Leavel, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, Jordan Tyson, Gypsy
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Glenn Davis, Purpose
Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor is the Villain
Francis Jue, Yellow Face
Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross
Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!
Who Will Probably Win: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!
Who Should Win: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!
Who Should Have Been Nominated: James Scully, Oh, Mary!
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Tala Ashe, English
Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Marjan Neshat, English
Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain
Kara Young, Purpose
Who Will Probably Win: Kara Young, Purpose
Who Should Win: Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Alana Arenas, Purpose, Molly Bernard, Cult of Love
Best Direction of a Play
Knud Adams, English
Sam Mendes, The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!
Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain
Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Who Will Probably Win: Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!
Who Should Win: Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Trip Cullman, Cult of Love
Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali, Buena Vista Social Club
Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer, Dead Outlaw
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.
Who Will Probably Win: Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending
Who Should Win: Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Mayer, Swept Away
Best Book of a Musical
Buena Vista Social Club, Marco Ramirez
Dead Outlaw, Itamar Moses
Death Becomes Her, Marco Pennette
Maybe Happy Ending, Will Aronson and Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat, David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
What Will Probably Win: Maybe Happy Ending
What Should Win: Dead Outlaw
What Should Have Been Nominated: Swept Away (John Logan)
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Dead Outlaw, David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
Death Becomes Her, Julia Mattison and Noel Carey
Maybe Happy Ending, Will Aronson & Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat, David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
Real Women Have Curves, Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez
What Will Probably Win: Maybe Happy Ending
What Should Win: Dead Outlaw
What Should Have Been Nominated: Boop! The Musical (David Foster and Susan Birkenhead)
Best Choreography
Joshua Bergasse, SMASH
Camille A. Brown, Gypsy
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club
Who Will Probably Win: Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Who Should Win: Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical
Best Orchestrations
Andrew Resnick & Michael Thurber, Just in Time
Will Aronson, Maybe Happy Ending
Bruce Coughlin, Floyd Collins
Marco Paguia, Buena Vista Social Club
David Cullen & Andrew Lloyd Webber, Sunset Blvd.
What Will Probably Win: Buena Vista Social Club
What Should Win: Sunset Blvd.
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Marsha Ginsberg, English
Rob Howell, The Hills of California
Marg Horwell and David Bergman, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Miriam Buether and 59, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Scott Pask, Good Night, and Good Luck
What Will Probably Win: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
What Should Win: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Rachel Hauck, Swept Away
Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending
Arnulfo Maldonado, Buena Vista Social Club
Derek McLane, Death Becomes Her
Derek McLane, Just in Time
What Will Probably Win: Death Becomes Her
What Should Win: Swept Away
What Should Have Been Nominated: Sunset Blvd. (Sunset re-invents what you can do with projections and there is no category for it)
Best Costume Design of a Play
Brenda Abbandandolo, Good Night, and Good Luck
Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Rob Howell, The Hills of California
Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!
Brigitte Reiffenstuel, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
What Will Probably Win: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
What Should Win: The Hills of California
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club
Gregg Barnes, BOOP! The Musical
Clint Ramos, Maybe Happy Ending
Paul Tazewell, Death Becomes Her
Catherine Zuber, Just in Time
What Will Probably Win: Death Becomes Her
What Should Win: BOOP! The Musical
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Chivers, The Hills of California
Jon Clark, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Heather Gilbert and David Bengali, Good Night, and Good Luck
Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski, John Proctor is the Villain
Nick Schlieper, The Picture of Dorian Gray
What Will Probably Win: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
What Should Win: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Jack Knowles, Sunset Blvd.
Tyler Micoleau, Buena Vista Social Club
Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun, Floyd Collins
Ben Stanton, Maybe Happy Ending
Justin Townsend, Death Becomes Her
What Will Probably Win: Sunset Blvd.
What Should Win: Sunset Blvd.
Best Sound Design of a Play
Paul Arditti, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Palmer Hefferan, John Proctor is the Villain
Daniel Kluger, Good Night, and Good Luck
Nick Powell, The Hills of California
Clemence Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray
What Will Probably Win: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
What Should Win: Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Jonathan Deans, Buena Vista Social Club
Adam Fisher, Sunset Blvd.
Peter Hylenski, Just in Time
Peter Hylenski, Maybe Happy Ending
Dan Moses Schreier, Floyd Collins
What Will Probably Win: Buena Vista Social Club
What Should Win: Sunset Blvd.
As for the LuPone controversy, I’ll save my pitchforks for the McCarthy-ite liberal left and the destructive religious/political right. Don’t delude yourself that they’re so far from the same. Take a step back from your social media feed and really ponder what is at play and just how insidious cancel culture really is. And if you still feel the desire and need to cancel someone, how about the power-that-be who keep raising Broadway ticket prices?
If Scherzinger is doesn’t win any awards for this performance it will be a travesty. Also, Lighting Design is a sneaky tough category.
Totally agree. It's the performance of the season and I truly hope they recognize that.
Amazing insight and analysis! What a season- lots of great work but my personal faves were the snubbed Swept Away, the inventive and hilarious Dead Outlaw, and the campy laugh riot Death Becomes Her!
Thank you for reading. Amazing season and I so agree on all 3 points. SWEPT AWAY should have SWEPT the nominations and DEAD OUTLAW needs more love!
Well said! "As for the LuPone controversy, I’ll save my pitchforks for the McCarthy-ite liberal left and the destructive religious/political right. Don’t delude yourself that they’re so far from the same. Take a step back from your social media feed and really ponder what is at play and just how insidious cancel culture really is. And if you still feel the desire and need to cancel someone, how about the power-that-be who keep raising Broadway ticket prices?"
Appreciate that.
Why even bring up Patti in a piece about – tony predictions when she is not a nominee? I think rich white women who hold power in an industry should also be held accountable for micro-aggressions. Broadway has been a white divas world and her points were rude and short sided. She will work again, she is not cancelled, she apologized, but there needs to be accountability for an industry that still has tremendous work to do for POC folks and their stories. Otherwise solid predictions !
Hey Kevin–Thanks! I brought up Patti because the controversy–regardless of what is being said–has dominated almost every piece I've read as well as it being all over social media and my point was I didn't want this insanity to take away from a truly amazing season on Broadway –a return to a Golden Age of sorts with Tony nominees that really deserve the recognition.
As for Patti, honestly, I don't think enough people bothered to read the Schulman piece on Patti and see what she really said and ask why he decided to ask the loaded and leading questions he asked–nor have they bothered to put it all in context–they just regurgitate their feed. I agree with you on the need for accountability but I think that people need to also do their homework and not react on the sound bites they see (not in any was saying you're doing that, FYI)
I think people read the piece – I know I did – Patti is an adult and can answer the questions in a adult manner – she does not not always have let ego get in the way. The Kecia Lewis stuff alone was just plain mean and I do not care who Patti is or what she has done.
These white legends and auteurs get so many passes and if you say that is “Woke” then you we have have become more awake to hold folks accountable for behavior that is not needed.
I agree with you. I adore Kecia (especially after chatting with her last year–she is amazing). But the journalist had an angle in asking the questions and pushing Patti. Look she's a Sicilian so she grouses and complains about everything and everyone (I can say that as I am also Sicilian but am strangely not that way–usually). He taunted her and continued to do so. Not saying it gives her a pass. But saying he should also answer.
As for being "woke," I like to go by Jane Fonda's definition that woke means "you give a damn about other people." My issue is with just how vehemently social media watchdogs (the few, the too-proud) LOVE to go after whomever is on the current grill and demand blood. Patti fucked up, she apologized. But it wasn't enough to many or it wasn't fast enough (what, a day?) or she didn't mean it or well, we just need to hate someone. Accountability is one thing. Delighting in the art of destroying someone is another thing entirely. And that is what I have been witnessing.
I am sorry – I literally do not care if someone is Sicilian, she is represents herself and a community – one I believe she loves – move on from Madonna, move on from ALW, she is a great person but THIS was not a great look – you do not always need to take the bate – or weigh in – or you can find new ways to say things.
I think there is a balance in this deeming people who are "woke" is the problem is a problem in and of itself – the definition comes from black folks not Jane Fonda (love Jane as much as I do).
I think the apology was good, felt like it was from her, no one "destroyed her" – she will work again, she does still have clout and she will be fine … ultimately she should maybe not be as callous in the way she represents things