In doing some geeky Tony Award rabbit hole research. It became clear that we are, happily, in a new golden age on Broadway where there are an abundance of fabulous shows, performances and tech teams vying for just four or five slots. This is vastly different from the mid-to-late ‘80s into the 1990s where there was a struggle to fill four spots and, too often, lesser work would be nominated simply to fill a category—I’m looking at you Quilters, Grind, Black and Blue, Starmites, A Grand Night for Singing, etc. In 1995 only 2 musicals opened on Broadway and 3 musical revivals.
And before I get attacked, I actually saw all those shows I cited above and, sheesh, they were not really award worthy—with few exceptions. I did love Starmites!
It’s exciting to have a year where there’s an embarrassment of riches–so much worthy work to consider. Inevitably, the Tony nominating committee will cause a great deal of upset with certain omissions, but that’s the nature of awards. Sometimes great work doesn’t get recognized for whatever reason.
So here are my predictions in the major Tony races,. I am also offering up my selections, if I were a Tony voter.
Best Musical
This category will include Death Becomes Her, Maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw. Operation Mincemeat is also a good bet. The last slot will prob come from the following: BOOP!, Buena Vista Social Club, Just in Time and Smash. Real Women Have Curves is also not out of the race. It’s a damn shame one of the best productions of the season, Swept Away, closed and will likely be ignored. The top name producers (including Spielberg) might just push the messy Smash over the line.
My personal choices
Swept Away
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
BOOP! The Musical
Operation Mincemeat
Note: Seeing Just in Time and Real Women Have Curves next week.
Best Play
Two of the year’s most exciting plays have closed: Cult of Love and The Hills of California. Conventional wisdom says only one of those two will be nominated—probably Hills, since it was less divisive. Oh, Mary!, John Proctor Is the Villain and Purpose are virtual shoo-ins. That leaves the final spot to be fought over by English, Good Night, and Good Luck, The Picture of Dorian Gray and Stranger Things: The First Shadow. Methinks Stranger Things.
My personal choices
John Proctor is the Villain
Cult of Love
Oh, Mary!
The Hills of California
Purpose
Note: I have not seen Good Night or Stranger Things yet.
Best Revival of a Musical
Even with only seven musical revivals, this category is thrilling with Sunset Blvd., Gypsy and Pirates! leading the charge and Floyd Collins the likely fourth nominee. Once Upon a Mattress and The Last Five Years have outside chances here.
My personal choices
Sunset Blvd.
Gypsy
Floyd Collins
Note: Seeing Pirates! in a few weeks.
Best Revival of a Play
Yawn. There were only seven that opened. I saw every one but Othello (not invited) and honestly think the category should be shelved this year as I was unimpressed with all of them. And do we really need more Shakespeare? Like, ever? The likely nominees: Eureka Day, Glengarry Glen Ross, Othello and Romeo + Juliet
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
I assessed this rich category at length in my Broadway Battle for Best Actress analysis.
I stand by the 5, but Helen J. Shen may just oust someone out.
My personal choices
Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.
Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her
Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical
Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Not as competitive as Best Actress, this category has a few shoo-ins: Daniel Criss (Maybe Happy Ending), Andrew Durand (Dead Outlaw), two likely noms: Jonathan Groff (Just in Time) and Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins). Tom Francis (Sunset Blvd.) should be the easy fifth slot, but don’t discount David Hyde Pierce (Pirates!), David Cumming (Operation Mincemeat) or James Monroe Iglehart (A Wonderful World). It’s a shame John Gallagher Jr.’s amazing work in Swept Away will be forgotten.
My personal choices
Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.
John Gallagher, Jr., Swept Away
Andrew Durant, Dead Outlaw
Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Big Hollywood names dominate here. But two newcomers are guaranteed a mention: Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!) and Jon Michael Hill (Purpose). The next likely are Kit Connor (Romeo + Juliet), George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck). Then, flip a coin, Denzel Washington or Jake Gyllenhaal (Othello). Or Louis McCartney gets in for Stranger Things. My money’s on Gyllenhaal since they couldn’t nominate a few years ago for Sunday in the Park with George as they didn’t allow seats for Tony voters to make room for actual patrons.
My personal choices
Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Kit Connor, Romeo + Juliet
Jon Michael Hill, Purpose
Peter Friedman, JOB
Robert Downey, Jr., McNeal
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
This is Sarah Snook’s to lose for her astonishing work in The Picture of Dorian Gray. She will have some competish from LaTanya Richardson Jackson (Purpose), Sadie Sink (John Proctor Is the Villain) and Laura Donnelly (The Hills of California). Mia Farrow will prob round out the five for her perf in The Roommate. Sink is awesome but belongs in Featured.
My personal choices
Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose
Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
Mia Farrow, The Roommate
Patti LuPone, The Roommate
–The Featured categories should be allowed 7-10 nominations this year. The ensemble acting was that good on Broadway!–
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club), Joy Woods (Gypsy), Michelle Williams (Death Becomes Her), Justina Machado (Real Women Have Curves) and Bella Coppola (Smash) are leading the pack, but watch out for, Grace Hodgett-Young (Sunset Blvd.) Lesli Margherita (Gypsy), Faith Prince (BOOP!) and Bernadette Peters or Bonnie Langford (Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends). This category had seven nominations last year.
My personal choices
Bonnie Langford, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends
Beth Leavel, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends
Bernadette Peters, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends
Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Jordan Tyson, Gypsy
Grace Hodgett-Young, Sunset Blvd.
Caroline Bowman, Smash
Anastacia McCleskey, Boop! The Musical
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
There are many names in this category that are being bandied about that were good, but too many great show-stopping performances aren’t being discussed at all. The most likely nominees are: Jac Malone (Operation Mincemeat), Brooks Ashmanskas (Smash), Danny Burstein (Gypsy), Stephen DeRosa (Boop!) and Christopher Sieber (Death Becomes Her). The first one is deserved.
My personal choices
Adrian Blake Enscoe, Swept Away
David Thaxton, Sunset Blvd.
Ainsley Melham, BOOP!
Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins
Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat
Stark Sands, Swept Away
Erich Bergen, BOOP! The Musical
Jason Gotay, Floyd Collins
Thom Sesma, Dead Outlaw
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
The single most crowded category of the season, so roll the dice. Right now, it’s looking like: Kara Young (Purpose), Alana Arenas (Purpose), Tala Ashe (English), Jessica Hecht, (Eureka Day) and Fina Strazza (John Proctor Is the Villain) but the latter play could just take over this category. It will be shame if the many great female perfs in Cult of Love were overlooked.
My Personal Choices
Fina Strazza, John Proctor Is the Villain
Alana Arenas, Purpose
Tala Ashe, English
Molly Bernard, Cult of Love
Kara Young, Purpose
Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain
Mare Winningham, Cult of Love
Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Rebecca Henderson, Cult of Love
Ophelia Lovibond, The Hills of California
Helena Wilson, The Hills of California
Amalia Yoo, John Proctor Is the Villain
Molly Griggs, John Proctor Is the Villain
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Probs: Bill Burr and Kieran Culkin for Glengarry Glen Ross are in. Then Glenn Davis (Purpose) and Hadi Tabbal (English). Then, perhaps Conrad Ricamora (Oh, Mary!). But both Francis Jue (Yellow Face) and Gabriel Ebert (John Proctor Is the Villain) also have good chances.
My Personal Choices
Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!
James Scully, Oh, Mary!
Glenn Davis, Purpose
Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor Is the Villain
Christopher Lowell, Cult of Love
Zachary Quinto, Cult of Love
Christopher Sears, Cult of Love
Hadi Tabbal, English
Nihar Duvvuri, John Proctor Is the Villain
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw and Death Becomes are locks. Smash (Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman) and Operation Mincemeat aren’t far behind. Swept Away, I’m assuming, is ineligible since it’s based on songs from a 2004 album. BOOP! should make it in if there’s justice.
My Personal choices
Julia Mattison and Noel Carey, Death Becomes Her
David Yasbeck, Erik Della Penna, Dead Outlaw
David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts, Operation Mincemeat
David Foster and Susan Birkenhead, Boop! The Musical
Will Aronson and Hue Park, Maybe Happy Ending
Best Book of a Musical
Again, Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her have the best chances. Real Women Have Curves and Operation Mincemeat are up next with BOOP! and Swept Away possible. Look for Smash to make it if they’ve gone haywire for the show.
My Personal choices
John Logan, Swept Away
Itamar Moses, Dead Outlaw
Marco Pennette, Death Becomes Her
David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts, Operation Mincemeat
Bob Martin, Boop! The Musical
Will Aronson and Hue Park, Maybe Happy Ending
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending), David Cromer (Dead Outlaw), George C. Wolfe (Gypsy), Christopher Gattelli (Death Becomes Her) and Jamie Lloyd (Sunset Blvd.) seem like the favorites.
My Personal Choices
Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.
Michael Mayer, Swept Away
David Cromer, Dead Outlaw
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jerry Mitchell, Boop! The Musical
Robert Hastie, Operation Mincemeat
Best Direction of a Play
Likely: David Cromer (Good Night, and Good Luck), Stephen Daldry (Stranger Things), Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!), Phylicia Rashad (Purpose), Danya Taymor (John Proctor Is the Villain), with Kip Williams (The Picture of Dorian Gray) possible.
My Personal Choices
Danya Taymor, John Proctor Is the Villain
Trip Cullman, Cult of Love
Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!
Sam Mendes, The Hills of California
Knud Adam, English
Phylicia Rashad, Purpose
Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray
