Oscars 2027: New Predix Show a Race Still In Flux

The Contending’s latest 2027 Oscar Predictions show a race still very much in flux with two major new faces breaking into the top five.

With Venice, Telluride, and TIFF behind us, the smaller, more intimate regional festivals finally give some of us a better look at the newest films vying for 2027 Oscar consideration. Joey, Mark, and I just returned from the Middleburg Film Festival (first podcast here with a wrap coming this week), David attends the Virginia Film Festival this week, and Megan heads to the SCAD Savannah Film Festival next week. Naturally, with all of this additional / new exposure to potential Oscar contenders, it’s time for The Contending to make major updates to our 2027 Oscar predictions.

Before we get into a quick analysis, if you’re looking for our latest predictions, then it’s best to start here. From The Contending Consensus page, you can check out our consensus predictions across the nine categories we’re currently tracking. Early November brings a broader view into the crafts categories for the 2027 Oscars. Then, if you’d like to see an individual member of The Contending’s predictions, just click on their name. Or you can select a category header (such as Best Actress) to see what we all think about that category.

Now that you’re oriented, here are a few highlights from this week’s updates.

You Can See Everything breaks into the top ten.

On the Best Picture side, nothing seems to be shaking The Odyssey‘s hold on the Best Picture race. Solidly in second place is TIFF People’s Choice Award winner La Bola Negra, which could potentially be the only foreign entry in the Best Picture race after several years of multiple films meriting nominations. Other contenders float up and down the list as more people see them and we’re able to gauge audience reactions. Despite a chillier reaction out of its red-hot Telluride launch, The Debut hangs onto the list. It’s likely that the inevitability of a Julianne Moore Best Actress win propels the film into the Best Picture ten. Plus, it’s a very fun film and one that actors in The Academy will fully embrace.

We’re not really sure how that same group will react to the other major foreign language film in the race: Fjord. Since it’s now playing in theaters, more people are seeing it and its reputation (so far) seems to be cooling. We’re still keeping it in our top ten, but it’s dropped a few notches. Notably, director Cristian Mungiu remains in the predicted top five. We’ll see how that lands over the coming weeks.

The big news of the week / month / year is Nathan Fielder’s groundbreaking and white-hot documentary You Can See Everything. It enters our list for the first time in ninth place, but that’s only because not everyone has seen it. We also had some stragglers updating their lists. I suspect by the time we enter November, the film will be closer to the top five.

That leaves I Play Rocky clinging to tenth place. It’s certainly done well with general festival-going audiences, landing second in the People’s Choice Awards competition. Critics will likely not agree, but critics don’t vote for the Oscars, do they? That said, Rocky has some tests ahead of it. Soon, those reviews will come out as the film lands in the early November box office. If it scores, then it could generate enough momentum to carry it further into the season. But if it tanks, can streaming save it?

First there’s Julianne… Then who?

Jumping to our second race in the most flux, we have a Best Actress race dominated by a brilliant, potentially career-topping performance from Julianne Moore. She isn’t just hype here either. After seeing the film at Middleburg this week, I can attest to a monologue sequence that causes audiences to spontaneously erupt into applause. Yes, she was there, but it’s bigger than that. Olivia Colman was in attendance for Wicker, but nobody foamed at the mouth for that film. Relax, it’s a good film. I’m just making a comparison. The love for Moore in The Debut feels very organic, authentic, and well earned. Engrave the Oscar now.

But who follows her?

Much of the chatter at Middleburg revolved around Obsession and its central Inde Navarrette performance. Yes, she’ll get into Critics Choice. Yes, she’ll get a Golden Globe nomination now that she’s suddenly, inexplicably a comedic actress, but she’ll lose to Moore there. But will BAFTA or SAG / AFTRA come calling? That may be where the Navarrette train slows a bit. Still, when making our predictions, we’re struggling to fill five slots with viable contenders. There’s no denying the massive success of Obsession, and people loved her performance. The Academy may want to recognize the film through her performance, despite the toxic discourse online. She’s in our top five still… for now.

We entered the fall with Olivia Wilde lower in the Best Actress rankings. But a few things happened. The Invite picked up steam headed into the awards season, and everybody’s talking about Olivia Wilde. Not just her brilliant direction, but her career-best performance. She’s also great in Behemoth! in a much smaller role. It’s difficult imagining her not in the Best Actress race, and she completely deserves it.

It’s almost a litmus test: “Which Sandra Hüller performance will jump into Best Actress?” Early on, Fatherland‘s more broad appeal in multiple categories seemed to be her best shot. Now, Oscar bloggers have elevated her Rose performance into pole position. It would be a strange thing to wake up Oscar morning and find her nominated for neither. So, for now, we’re centering our Hüller nomination thoughts on Rose.

Finally, several actresses circulated the fifth slots in our predictions. Virginie Efira in All of a Sudden. Ruth Madeley in Being Heumann. Jessica Lange in Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Rachel McAdams in Send Help. But it’s Carrie Coon’s acclaimed turn in The Liberation that gotten enough broad traction across The Contending to push her into the fifth slot. Actors and audiences love Coon, even if the film itself hasn’t gotten rave reviews. We’re banking on Coon’s stellar reputation, coupled with a truly great performance, to push her forward.

Artificial Intelligence In Supporting Actor

Welcome Andrew Garfield to our 2027 Oscar predictions! Few had his Artificial performance as Sam Altman in their Supporting Actor list until the film screened earlier this month in New York. As soon as the lights came up, audiences raved about his work, equating his impact on the film to Anthony Hopkins’ Oscar-winning work in Silence of the Lambs. A few in our charts have even put him winning the award ahead of The Debut‘s Paul Giamatti. And that’s even before Artificial has been widely screened.

Speaking of Giamatti, I’ve seen The Debut, and he’s fantastic in it. No, he’s not the unhinged, ranting Giamatti of Sideways or The Holdovers. He’s subtle, focused, and delivering excellent work. There’s a feeling that people take him for granted, which is funny to say since he currently leads our Supporting Actor predictions. He’s been great for a very long time, and it would be fantastic to see Moore and Giamatti both receive statues this year.

Further down the list, Wild Horse Nine‘s Sam Rockwell, The Odyssey‘s John Leguizamo, and La Bola Negra‘s Guitarricadelafuente remain firmly in contention. Guitarricadelafuente, in particular, will have a very busy Oscar season because, in person, he’s incredibly charismatic. He also sings the film’s contending original song, “La Nieve.” Put him in front of Oscar voters, and they won’t be able to help themselves. It helps that he’s very good in the film too.