Megan McLachlan takes a look at the key Oscar races affected by the 2026 Actor Awards, including Best Supporting Actor.
With three Oscar acting categories in flux this year, all eyes were on the 2026 Actor Awards, formerly known as the SAG Awards (as host Kristen Bell frequently reminded us), for some direction. And while it certainly gave us some answers (no one is stopping Jessie Buckley), it also brought up more questions (can Sean Penn win in a category against Delroy AND Stellan?).
Here are 5 key takeaways from the 2026 Actor Awards:
1. Sean Penn is officially the frontrunner in Best Supporting Actor.
Who would have thought? As we discussed on a recent Contending at the Water Cooler podcast, Sean Penn was the one everyone was talking about for Best Supporting Actor earlier this year when One Battle After Another came out. Then, his buzz faded (kind of like that awful haircut in the movie!). Now, he’s back and looking at his third Oscar after taking home the Actor Award for Outstanding Supporting Performance by a Male Actor.
The last time the Supporting Actor Awards didn’t line up was in 2015, when Idris Elba won for Beasts of No Nation (Mark Rylance would later win for Bridge of Spies). Does that mean this is a lock? Not necessarily. After all, Delroy Lindo and Stellan Skarsgard were not nominated for the Actor Award, so he won’t be going up against the same competition on March 15. Remember that Regina King was not nominated for the Actor the year she went on to win the Oscar.
2. Amy Madigan is not out of the Oscar race.
“Gladys has surprised me!” said Madigan on stage to accept her Actor Award for Outstanding Supporting Performance by a Female Actor. “I don’t know why you all want to hang out with her!”
And then she proceeded to shout out unions, Chicago, and create new reasons why Oscar voters will want to hang out with her — Amy! — on stage in two weeks.
Of course, this is the film’s only Oscar nomination, but as an actor’s actor, Madigan certainly made the case for a win. I saw a tweet a few weeks ago saying, “RIP to Amy Madigan’s Oscar chances.” In this unpredictable Oscar year, she’s very much in it.
3. Start engraving that Oscar for Jessie Buckley.
Not only because it’s a lock at this point, but because she gave a great speech when she won Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, especially when she mentioned her date, Emily Watson.
“Breaking the Waves made me whisper to myself, that’s what I want to do,” said Buckley on stage. “To share those things with Hamnet, I will cherish that for the rest of my life.” (She also referred to Kristen Bell’s “go back to the well” from the intro when she told Emily she taught her how to “Go back to the well of just being human.” That was fun to see actors actoring in real time!)
4. Timmy has some serious competition. And it’s twins!
As soon as I saw that Viola Davis was giving out the award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, I thought, “Oh, she’s going to be the one to give it to Michael.” And before she even said his name, we all knew he won by her expression.
Jordan has mostly been quiet this awards season, but this is his first major win. In his speech, he also reminded us that we’ve all seen him grow up in front of the camera (The Wire!). (Although Homeland’s Claire Danes and Damian Lewis also reminded us that we watched Timothee Chalamet grow up in front of the camera, too!)
Despite coming out last March, Sinners has only built momentum this awards season, while Marty Supreme’s buzz seems to have faded. Does having an early release film actually benefit an Oscar contender because of the ebb and flow of the season? Coda and Everything Everywhere All at Once benefited from a long award season.
5. Sinners winning Outstanding Cast wasn’t a total surprise.
It has a huge cast, probably the biggest of the nominations. And a win for Outstanding Cast at the Actor Awards doesn’t always spell a win for Best Picture at the Oscars (after all, Conclave won last year!).
However, Sinners‘ buzz is building. And sometimes, a win at the Actor Awards causes a ripple effect (see Coda and Parasite). We’ll see if this is a prediction for what’s to come on March 15!
The Actor Awards aired on Netflix.
