Sinners has had the longest road to the Oscars this year. Does that mean it’s winning Best Picture?
One thing Film Twitter has been bemoaning this week is how long this awards season feels, especially with the 2026 Oscars happening in the middle of March.
Okay, okay. It’s long. We get it. This feels like the same joke every Oscar host makes about the ceremony itself being long. It’s about as original as a Scream sequel title.
But sorry — the only group that should really be feeling this season’s length is the cast and crew behind Sinners. After all, it was almost a year ago that Ryan Coogler released his historical-vampire-blues epic, and the awards talk started almost immediately (initially, for Delroy Lindo, remember?).
And yet, despite being the first horse in the race, it’s still neck and neck with One Battle After Another for Best Picture, which is pretty amazing.
Pre-COVID, no one would dream that an early spring movie would stick around in people’s minds long enough to not only secure a Best Picture nomination, but also be a frontrunner (and lead in nominations!).
But then CODA came along (a Sundance premiere in January 2021, a Best Picture winner in late March 2022). And then Everything Everywhere All At Once (premiered at SXSW in March 2022 and a year later won the Oscar). And even Oppenheimer sustained its buzz with a July release (opposite Best Picture competitor Barbie).
Does having a longer awards season benefit early releases in this post-COVID era?
There are a few reasons why this might be true.
Movies Take Longer to Discover
For one thing, it’s taking audiences a longer time to find movies now. Traditional box office releases meant that if you missed it in theaters, you were out of luck (until it was released on DVD or streaming, of course). Now, people can take their time catching up to films (sadly, they wait for streaming). You didn’t need to be there opening weekend for Sinners (although plenty were!).
Film Narratives Change QUICK
Secondly, film narratives evolve faster. In many ways, an earlier release strategy allows a film to breathe a bit and develop its fandom — and ride out all the bumps along the way.
CODA is a perfect example of letting a movie cook. It arrived at the 94th Academy Awards with only three nominations, and it wasn’t expected to win any of them. Then, by the end of February 2022, with more voters catching up to it, it went home with all three. But if the awards season had been any longer, would it have been different? It peaked at the perfect time.
Having a bigger window allows for more control of the narrative and getting your movie in front of more eyes. Case in point: Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nomination. To Leslie came out in March 2022, which gave it a full year for discovery. Just enough time for Frances Fisher to realize she needed to champion it come 2023 Oscar time.
Early Oscar Contenders Allow for More PR Control
Finally, an earlier release strategy benefits the publicists and marketing of a movie.
Right now, I’m betting Timothee Chalamet’s PR team is wishing they had more time to fix his Oscar campaign. Marty Supreme came out of the gate at the New York Film Festival in October with incredible buzz. And even up until the Actor Awards just weeks ago, Chalamet was still the frontrunner for Best Actor. (Gold Derby recently tracked his fall from No. 1.)
If the awards season were longer, would he ride out this current opera/ballet comment backlash and be back on top? I tend to think he would. Vanity Fair’s Chris Murphy has already come out in defense of Chalamet’s comments. Even some opera singers agree. The tides are already starting to change, but it’s too late after the voting window.
Back in 2004, Million Dollar Baby notoriously crashed the Oscar race VERY late into the game and went on to win four Academy Awards. But this well-known Oscar strategy doesn’t work anymore. It almost feels like a fable from long ago (who else is picturing Grandpa Simpson on a tree stump right now?).
In this modern Oscar era, the race has truly proven to be a marathon, not a sprint.
