2026 Oscars: A Final Look at the Race Ahead of the 98th Academy Awards

Ahead of Sunday The Contending takes one final look at the 2026 Oscar race and some of our biggest takeaways. 

Team Contending has officially locked in their predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and with that we are in the final stretch to Sunday’s ceremony. With  no more than 48 hours until the year in film is behind us we wanted to take one last look at the 2026 Oscars race and where it all stands. Our Contending Consensus and individual predictions can also be found here and if you haven’t already listen / watch our final predictions episode of Contending at the Water Cooler.

One Battle After Another coasted through the season as the undeniable frontrunner. Cinephiles flocked to the theaters when it premiered last September and since then it has gone on to win top honors from almost every major voting body celebrating the excitement it has brought audiences as well as becoming the crowning achievement of Paul Thomas Anderson. Because of that almost every prognosticator as well as The Contending Consensus predicts it to win Best Picture.

Without a doubt OBAA is entering the night as the solid frontrunner. However this is an era where stats are crumbling year after year and we’d be remiss not to acknowledge the enthusiasm for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. The film has been the championed underdog ever since high-profile trades foolishly tried to underplay its box office accomplishments back in April. Since then it has gone on to thrill audiences in what feels like a celebration of the last hurrah of studio filmmaking in Hollywood. The film is also entering the night as the single most nominated film of all time at the Oscars with 16 nominations.

Frankly this year’s Best Picture race has been dissected ad nauseam and there’s nothing left to say. Both films are deserving winners that represent some of the best work from two of the strongest filmmakers working today. No matter how it shakes out Warner Bros. will also be going home with the top prize in a year of industry uncertainty (and a first for the studio since 2012’s Argo). And with so much uncertainty heading into the ceremony we here at The Contending could not be more thrilled that the one guarantee seems to be that Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley is poised to be our next Best Actress winner for a guttural performance that has stayed with us all season long.

If we’ve learned anything from this season it’s that the industry is drastically changing and because of that stats aren’t the be-all and end-all in the overall race to the Oscar. 2025 was a year filled with filmmakers at the top of their craft making films that are inspiring their peers within industry and exciting general audiences Because of that the more that critics and online groups attempt to skew the race the less they’ll matter in the end.

Consensus at The Contending

In a year filled with divisive camps and indecisive precursors Team Contending has surprisingly come to a consensus across most of the major categories. Our final and full predictions can be found here however as of now this is where we think the race stands across the major categories:

One Battle After Another (6): Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing

Sinners (4): Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, Original Score

Frankenstein (3): Costumes, Production Design, Makeup/Hairstyling

KPop Demon Hunters (2): Animated Feature, Original Song

Hamnet (1): Actress

Weapons (1): Supporting Actress

Sentimental Value (1): International Feature

F1 (1): Sound

Avatar: Fire & Ash (1): Visual Effects

This largely falls in line with our colleagues across multiple sites as well as the Gold Derby consensus. However, we all know the Oscars never go as planned and at least a couple of these categories are destined to shake up everyone’s preconceived notions of the race.

With Sinners surging at the peak of voting it feels off for the film to only be taking home four awards. We’re all in agreement that the film will surprise in at least one of the craft categories and it is at least second in nearly every of those races but no one can agree on where it is most likely to pull ahead. Is legendary costume designer Ruth E. Carter in the running to win her third Oscar in seven years? Will Oscar voters make history and award cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw? Or will the actors branch push the film ahead in the visual effects race in an upset few would see coming?

This year the Academy introduced a new set of requirements for voting that have the chance to shake up a lot of these categories in unforeseen ways. For the first time voters will not be allowed to submit their ballot for any given category unless they’ve screened all of the nominated films in their screening portal. The only way around this is to sign an affidavit confirming they screened the film elsewhere. Obviously there is no way to truly police what voters have seen and many will say they’ve screened everything even if they haven’t. But will some voters not want to go through the hassle and instead choose to opt out of some categories? If some categories are left to a smaller, and more informed and passionate, that has the possibility to lead to some of the biggest upsets of the night.

The categories most likely to benefit from this will be the three short categories. With the removal of less excited voters there is room for some passionate choices. The same goes for the Documentary Feature race where it might not matter as much what is the most widely seen and accessible. Or the Animated Feature race where many older voters used to unfairly dismiss the medium and simply vote for the most recognizable title.

If I were to make a “no guts no glory” prediction I wonder if these new rules might affect our pre-conceived notions of Original Song. Clearly “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunter is the most popular song and the frontrunner to win with the perceived spoiler being “I Lied to You” from Sinners. However the category is also filled out with films that the majority of the Academy likely will have not seen. If its left to a much smaller voting body, largely those within the music branch, there’s an outside chance that Diane Warren’s friends and colleagues propel the songwriter to her first win.

The Six Categories We’re Most Excited For 

Overall across many of the categories this is one of the most wide-open Oscar races we have seen in a long time. It’s been many years since no less than three acting races appear to be wide open. Even most of the crafts have room for surprises. As chaotic as it feels this is the way the Oscar race should be especially with a year filled with so many deserving films. Without diving back into the back and forth of the Best Picture race below are some of the other categories we are most excited for come Sunday:

Actor: Even before the film premiered it seemed that critics and journalists were set on the narrative that this was Chalamet’s Oscar to lose. He even went on to win the Critics Choice and Golden Globe almost solidifying him as the frontrunner until actual industry awards chimed in shaking up the race. BAFTA voters went with Robert Aramayo for a film that is not yet eligible at the Oscars while SAG voters catapulted Michael B. Jordan seemingly to frontrunner status. Chalamet already faced an uphill battle with a voting body that notoriously does not reward younger actors in this category when he then doubled down with an Oscar campaign / publicity tour that was at best unconventional and at worst narcissistic. Still Marty Supreme was nominated across the board at the Oscars and he could still pull through even if we at The Contending are predicting the film to become this year’s American Hustle.

Supporting Actress: All season long we’ve watched as the precursors have spread the wealth amongst Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor, and Wunmi Mosaku. In recent weeks predictions have coalesced around Madigan but the race is far from over especially with this being the film’s only nomination. Is there a world where the frontrunner status for One Battle After Another brings Taylor along for the ride?

Supporting Actor: This is another category that has had its fair share of ups and downs. At the beginning of the season Stellan Skarsgard cemented himself as the frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe while Jacob Elordi entered the conversation after winning the Critics’ Choice Award. Then Sean Penn steamrolled through the industry prizes taking home both the BAFTA and SAG award without ever lifting a finger to campaign. Meanwhile Delroy Lindo has entered the conversation as the veteran actor without any precursor nominations who in the final weeks of voting has become the face of his film.

Casting: Across the board almost everyone is predicting the inaugural Casting Oscar to go to Francine Maisler for her work on Sinners. Not only did her casting bring the entire film to life but Maisler is also a pivotal name within the film industry having worked as the casting director for 19 Best Picture nominees over the past 25+ years. With that being said this is a brand new category and one that hasn’t found its footing yet within the Oscar race. There’s room for a major upset especially with a crop of nominees as strong as this including Hamnet, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another, and Marty Supreme.

International Feature Film: This is the award to lose for Sentimental Value and quite possibly the only one that the film will go home with this weekend. The Norwegian family drama has been the frontrunner since Cannes and with nine nominations it would be foolish to bet against it. However we have an embarrassment of riches this years and possibly the first time where at least four of the nominees are well represented across multiple categories including screenplay, casting, and sound. Then there is the outside influence of global affairs that heightens the political and emotional resonance of the films as well.

Cinematography:  After winning the Bafta, ASC, and BSC trifecta One Battle After Another is the Oscar frontrunner and the Contending consensus pick. Meanwhile Sinners is the critics pick and the opportunity for Oscar voters to make history might be too good for them to pass up. Meanwhile there is a lot of passion for the luscious northwest photography of Train Dreams. This is also a category that has only aligned with the eventual Best Picture winner three times in the new millennium leaving lots of room for a surprise.

What We’re Looking Forward to From The Ceremony

Beyond the eventual winners there is a lot to look forward to at this year’s ceremony. After a solid hosting job last year it will be interesting to see what Conan O’Brien does with his second year as the face of the show. We are also ushering in the inaugural award for Best Casting. It’s been 25 years since the Academy has introduced a new category and it will be exciting to see how they introduce the work of casting directors to the audience. Even though the telecast is reducing the number of musical performances the two most anticipated moments of the night will certainly be when “Golden” and “I Lied to You” are performed. Notably the Sinners number will feature a combination of the film’s cast including Miles Caton and special guests like Brittany Howard, Shaboozey, as well as blues legend Buddy Guy who notably appears in the film as well. On a more somber note we also lost many Hollywood legends this year (Diane Keaton, Robert Redford, and Rob Reiner just to name a few) and I’m curious how the show will choose to honor them.

With that said there’s nothing left to do until Oscar Sunday besides sit back, relax, and soak in the magic of The Secret Agent standout Tânia Maria as she honors the nominees ahead of filmmaking’s biggest night.

Tânia Maria (The Secret Agent) promoting the Oscars
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