2026 Oscars Best Picture Outlook Following Venice, Telluride

We’re back from the mountains and from the Lido. Life is slowly returning to normal, although some of us are still recovering from nightmare travel scenarios. We’ve seen a lot of great films that we’re still processing, and some of us are dashing off to other film festivals to see even more. The Telluride crew intended to record a podcast to look at the festival and the 2026 Oscars Best Picture race, but we simply never found the time to do so. When we weren’t at screenings, we were at studio-sponsored gatherings, learning about their upcoming fall slate, or simply sleeping. At any rate, we’ll rejoin next week to process all of this activity on our next podcast.

So, what did the festivals tell us about the 2026 Oscars Best Picture race?

As I wrote last week, the 2026 Oscar season didn’t really have a frontrunner going into the fall festival season. Sure, two extremely likely Best Picture nominees dropped: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. Both films are undeniably great, but there seemed to be a broad consensus / reluctance to proclaim either film The One To Win. It’s probably smart to do that considering, historically, films ear-marked so early tend to fade away by Oscar night. Last year, of course, that proved not to be true as Anora premiered at Cannes and went on to win Best Picture. But the smart thing about Neon’s campaign for the film was that it never felt like the frontrunner. Meaning, there was never a broad consensus that the film would win. That’s not to say that no one proclaimed it a frontrunner, but it wasn’t branded with that undeniable Best Picture energy until late in the season. I’m not exactly sure how that happens, but that was a very smart play. It helps avoid the backlash against which some films never recover.

So, with Sinners and Sentimental Value sort of flying under the radar, Venice and Telluride offered a handful of films that pose interesting questions about the 2026 Oscar race. Let’s take a look at them by the festival at which they premiered.

Venice Film Festival

Frank J. Avella reviewed several films coming out of Venice. Early on, we had looks at three major films that were initially thought to have the juice to go all the way.

Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia probably emerged from the Venice Film Festival the strongest of this batch of three. Reviews pointed to a more accessible, less eccentric film that boasted two outstanding performances from Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone. Those things are basically true, although it is a Lanithmos satire and, as such, the ending is wild. Lanthimos has his fans within The Academy as evidenced by the reactions from The Favourite and Poor Things. The international-leaning new Academy won’t have as hard of a time embracing the film’s more esoteric moments, although it will definitely have its detractors as it did at the later Telluride Film Festival. But it seems safe to say that Bugonia is firmly in for a Best Picture nomination. Calling it the frontrunner would be a stretch, though. It isn’t the type of consensus title that can win on a preferential ballot.

Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly was hit hard by Venice film critics, leading many Oscar watchers to proclaim it DOA in the race. Silly them. Jay Kelly is Academy catnip, and it has the mighty arm of Netflix urging it through the season. Screenings throughout the season will be packed just to bask in the glow of George Clooney (assuming he’s not sick), Adam Sandler, and Laura Dern. Within the old Academy, this film will travel on the strength of its mighty Clooney and Dern connections / friendships. Plus, it’s a film about the industry. It will do well on nomination day despite its early reactions. A better launch at Telluride (where the film should have premiered anyway) helped soften the Venice blow, and it will only get better throughout the season.

There was a time where the hot button issues explored in Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt seemed perfect for The Academy. However, shockingly, the film emerged from Venice as the lowest rated film of Guadagnino’s career. Of course, that made me infinitely more excited to see the film, but it will be near-impossible to overcome that reputation to emerge an Oscar favorite. At this point, I doubt even Julia Roberts can get into Best Actress, even though most reviews said she gave an outstanding performance.

Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite hasn’t screened outside of Venice, but those early reactions (with the exception of a handful of critics) were all glowing. Is this something to watch? Is this another Zero Dark Thirty? Or is this another September 5? We’ll have to see how subsequent screenings of the film are received, but this film could be the second that Netflix gets into the Best Picture 10.

Finally, there were two international films that launched at Venice to outstanding reviews. Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice seems a strong bet for International Feature, but I’m less certain about its chances in the Best Picture race. A more interesting film to follow would be Kaouther Ben Hania’s The Voice of Hind Rajab. That film details the killing of a 5-year-old Palestinian girl on the Gaza Strip. Clearly, that’s going to have major champions in the Hollywood community who speak out against the Palestinian genocide. The film received a whopping 23 minute and 50 second standing ovation at its premiere. It also has the Brad Pitt-led Plan B Entertainment production company behind it, although I’m not exactly clear who will be distributing the film. There’s a long way to go, of course, but the launch appears flawless, particularly if Hind Rajab wins Venice’s Golden Lion.

Telluride Film Festival

Many Venice-premiered films made the journey to the Rocky Mountains over Labor Day weekend, but Telluride also hosted a few world premieres that will prove compelling in the Oscar race to many voters.

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet wowed Telluride audiences and became the talk of this year’s festival. It is, in my opinion, the closest thing that we have right now in this moment in time to an Oscar frontrunner. I know a LOT of fans of the film are reluctant to make that same call. Hamnet is the kind of film that people love so deeply that they almost don’t want to degrade it with talk of Oscar. They don’t want to see it torn apart throughout the season in this game we’ve all created. But objectively looking at the film, it has everything a traditional Best Picture winner should have: strong reviews, stellar performances, and a narrative behind its director (The Academy would make history if Zhao were to win a second Oscar for directing). The slings and arrows are already out with some calling it “misery porn” and referencing Telluride Derangement Syndrome. I was in the room where it premiered, though, and it feels like the real deal to me. But we have a LONG way to go.

Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere is a curious entry in the race. Behind the scenes, it has massive support from The Boss, himself, and from Oprah who attended the world premiere in Telluride. Audiences leapt to their feet whenever Bruce was in the room, and if he’s willing to run the season, then his presence at Academy or SAG / AFTRA screenings will carry the film a long way. That said, the film didn’t have many viewers outside of the Springsteen devotees who loved it. There’s a lot of respect out there for the film, but will it have the number one votes it needs to secure a Best Picture nomination? If Bruce campaigns for it, then yes. If not, then it could be seen as strictly a performance play for Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong.

I love Edward Berger’s films, and after Conclave and All Quiet on the Western Front, you can never fully ignore one of his films. Ballad of a Small Player premiered in the Rockies last weekend with star Colin Farrell in attendance. Honestly, he seemed to attend nearly every film screening at the festival, but that’s a side note. Ballad marks a tremendous leap forward for Berger as a filmmaker. It’s wild, risk-taking, and audacious in its stylistic construction. It also has many detractors who weren’t necessarily buying into what he was selling, more specifically calling out its screenplay as the weakest link. I liked the film quite a bit, but it does have the sense that it’s more of a Best Actor play for Farrell than anything else. Still, it’s entirely worth seeing, and maybe future festivals / critical appraisals will elevate it beyond a single Oscar play in the weeks to come.

Initial 2026 Oscars Best Picture Outlook

So, considering I’ve seen several films now, I feel more confident about making an initial, way-too-early stab at the Best Picture 10. We still have a lot of films yet to screen, but we probably have 5-6 fairly solid guesses based on what has screened. So, here we go. Drop your 2026 Oscars Best Picture 10 in the comments if you’d like.

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Bugonia
6. Jay Kelly
7. Marty Supreme
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. A House of Dynamite