In order to weigh Jennifer Lopez’s Oscar chances, Megan McLachlan rewinds to 31 years ago when a box office disappointment earned Jessica Lange her second Academy Award.

There are two things my social media algorithm has been showing me this week. One, a ton of Diane Keaton dedications (keep them coming!), and the other: justice for Jennifer Lopez.

My X feed has been teeming with J.Lo love for her work in Bill Condon’s Kiss of the Spider Woman. How-fucking-ever, it usually comes with a huge caveat: Too bad the movie bombed, and she can’t get nominated.

Yes, unfortunately, KOTSW didn’t even break a million at the box office last weekend, which is a huge blow to her awards chances and to politically relevant movie musicals continuing to get made (although how many politically relevant movie musicals are there, I suppose?).

Yet, there are a ton of unlikely Oscar success stories, and the first one that came to mind was Jessica Lange’s Best Actress win for 1994’s Blue Sky.

The Story of Jessica Lange’s Win for Blue Sky

Let’s go back to 1994 for a minute (break out your Starter jackets).

In fact, no: Let’s go further back to 1990 — because that’s when Blue Sky was filmed. The film sat on the shelf for 4 years after Orion Pictures went bankrupt. And then, director Tony Richardson passed away in 1991, which put a wrench in the film’s promotion.

When it was finally released after Orion reorganized, Blue Sky made a little under what KOTSW made at the box office in its opening weekend: $764,890 (of course, it was in 200 screens compared to KOTSW’s 1,300) on a budget of $16 million (adjusted for inflation today, approximately a little over $30 million — KOTSW’s budget).

Some film delays only help the hype (re: Titanic), but Blue Sky was never going to be a huge box office smash — kind of like KOTSW. As Nick Taylor writes at The Film Experience:

Blue Sky is not the hidden gem or the Lange showcase Country or Sweet Dreams indelibly provide. But it does have a jagged, engaging momentum to it, never quite settling into a stable formal or narrative rhythm despite its very middlebrow impressions.

When people talk about Jessica Lange’s resume, no one mentions Blue Sky. Even Tootsie gets more recognition — a film for which she won Best Supporting Actress. Blue Sky is more of the answer to an Oscar trivia question you get wrong.

So, Okay, What Does This Have To Do With Jennifer Lopez?

Okay, so back to J.Lo. A movie musical from 2025 and a domestic drama from 1994 don’t have a lot in common, but the awards situations they were released in might.

Best Supporting Actress is a weird bag this year. Let’s face it. Teyana Taylor could be a frontrunner, but she’s missing for a huge chunk of One Battle After Another. Amy Madigan is still in the conversation for a quirky horror thriller she appears in the back half of. Sentimental Value has two solid supporting performances from Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, with the edge given to Lilleaas. Ariana Grande will most likely get in, but what if there’s Wicked fatigue or that it doesn’t live up to first film (many have lamented that the second act is not as good as the first)?

Jennifer Lopez has two things going for her: consistency and an overdue narrative. She appears throughout KOTSW, beginning to end, and there might also be some voters still bitter she didn’t get in for Hustlers.

For Jessica Lange’s Blue Sky win, she was up against:

Jodie Foster, Nell

Miranda Richardson, Tom & Viv

Winona Ryder, Little Women

Susan Sarandon, The Client

Lange feels like an unlikely winner in this category, for a film whose sole nomination is hers. (Jodie Foster was also the sole nomination for Nell, but they weren’t going to give her a third Oscar so soon.)

Eddie Mouradian at Awards Watch gave an interesting breakdown of that Best Actress year, citing Lange as a default rather than an overdue narrative.

And maybe that’s how Jennifer Lopez will factor into this year’s conversation. She gives a classic Hollywood performance that the Academy typically loves, singing and dancing, when they might not want to award a revolutionary who abandons her family (men will cite she’s a bad mother when really she’s just a complicated person — I love Perfidia!), a witch who casts spells on a town, or Glenn Close, just because they like to torture that poor woman.

Bottom line: It’s Oscar season, and anything can happen. Let’s not let the Spider Woman kiss Lopez’s Oscar chances quite yet.