Tonys 2025: Predictions & Preferences, Don't Let The Patti LuPone Controversy Detract From A Banner Year On Broadway

Now that Patti LuPone has apologized: forgive her, support her or sharpen your pitchforks, but WAIT until after Broadway’s biggest night.

This year’s Tony Awards will be one for the books since the 2024-25 season has featured more quality shows than in any other time in recent memory. Instead of the Tony nominating committee filling slots as has often happened in the past—especially these last few decades– the competition in most categories is fierce (Revival of a Play is the only real exception) and a number of great performances were, indeed, overlooked. That said, the Tony-nominating committee did a more-than-decent job of representing a fantastic season—one I see as a New Golden Age on Broadway.

This year’s awards boast a host of incredibly exciting and tight races, the most nail-biting being Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical. We’ll get to that one later.

There are 831 Tony voters who represent the industry, including actors, designers, playwrights, directors, producers and even some press, who are expected to see every show in contention and submit their votes by noon on June 6, 2025. Tune in Sunday, June 8th on Pluto TV at 6:40pm EST (Tech Awards) and CBS at 8pm EST for the network broadcast.

Here are my predictions and preferences as well as some of the overlooked.

Best Musical

Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat

This is a tricky category since, in the past decade, smaller shows have won (Fun Home, The Band’s Visit, A Strange Loop, Kimberly Akimbo) but so have large-scale productions (Hamilton, Hadestown, Moulin Rouge!) as well as last year’s victor, The Outsiders, a combination of both—and somewhat of a surprise. The past has seen outrageous selections (some in retrospect) like La Cage aux Folles over Sunday in the Park with George, Phantom of the Opera besting Into the Woods and Avenue Q over Wicked.

This season we have a three-way race with the critically-lauded Maybe Happy Ending competing against last year’s acclaimed-OB-darling, Dead Outlaw, with the audience-beloved, Death Becomes Her, gaining ground. Maybe Happy took the Drama Desk but Dead Outlaw won it last year in its OB run. Plus the DD’s are composed of mostly theater critics. It will be a photo finish. FYI: Swept Away was robbed of a nomination here and deserved longer run!

What Will Probably Win: Maybe Happy Ending

What Should Win: Dead Outlaw

What Should Have Been Nominated: Swept Away

Best Play

English
The Hills of California
John Proctor Is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose

It’s looking good for Oh, Mary!, but don’t completely rule out both John Proctor Is the Villain or Pulitzer-Prize and Drama-Desk winner Purpose.

What Will Probably Win: Oh, Mary!

What Should Win: John Proctor Is the Villain

What Should Have Been Nominated: Cult of Love

Best Revival of a Play

Eureka Day
Romeo and Juliet
Our Town
Yellow Face

The ho-hum, who-cares category. None of these revivals were great. Yellow Face was, at least, interesting. Eureka Day had a top-notch cast.

What Will Probably Win: Eureka Day

Best Revival of a Musical

Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Blvd.

There’s only one brilliant, groundbreaking revival here: Sunset Blvd. Period. But Drama Desk went Gypsy and it seems to be gaining ground, especially after LuPone-gate. Toss up.

What Will Probably Win: Sunset Blvd.

What Should Win: Sunset Blvd.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.
Jonathan Groff, Just in Time
James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World
Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins

Talk about tough. Criss is doing amazing work. Durand is astounding. Francis is just brilliant (and won the Olivier). The only performance I did not see was Groff. I was deathly ill for the press performance and was told they were unable to accommodate me at any future performances. Curious. And disappointing.

Who Will Probably Win: Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending

Who Should Win: Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd. or Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw

Who Should Have Been Nominated: John Gallagher, Jr., Swept Away

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical
Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.
Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her

This is a STRONG category and all five nominees did stellar work. Anyone could win. The Outer Critics went with Rogers, who is fab. Drama Desk voters appeared to deliberately go out of their way to shun Scherzinger by awarding both McDonald and Rogers for Outstanding Lead Performance in a Musical.

Scherzinger gives the kind of performance a person never forgets. I’ve seen her three times and will be going back at least once more. She not only invigorates a great role but reinvents how we experience musical theater. But I’m not quite sure that will be enough since 6-time winner McDonald has many supporters, and many bloggers have made it political. In addition, the LuPone insanity has stirred up sympathy for her. If Scherzinger loses, she can take comfort in the fact that Kelli O’Hara, giving the performance of her life in The Bridges of Madison County, lost to a mediocre but popular jukebox performance I won’t even bother to name. She can also know she was wronged for political reasons and it’s her performance that will be remembered. Let’s hope the Tony voters get this one right.

Who Will Probably Win: Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her (because, why the hell not, she’s fierce!)

Who Should Win: Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Jon Michael Hill, Purpose
Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face
Harry Lennix, Purpose
Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Clooney has an outside chance, and McCartney is truly mesmerizing and could upset, but is there anyone more beloved than Escola right now?

Who Will Probably Win: Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!

Who Should Win: Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
Mia Farrow, The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose
Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villian
Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Another rich category and if Snook wasn’t in the mix then it would be Donnelly vs. Richardson Jackson. Alas, she is. Sink is fantastic but should have been placed in Featured, since John Proctor is an ensemble show.

Who Will Probably Win: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Who Should Win: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Patti LuPone, The Roommate (yes, her performance was damn good)

Taylor Trensch in Floyd Collins. Credit: Joan Marcus

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

Brooks Ashmanskas, SMASH
Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw
Danny Burstein, Gypsy
Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical
Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins

Who Will Probably Win: Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat

Who Should Win: Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Adrian Blake Enscoe, Swept Away, David Thaxton, Sunset Blvd., Ainsley Melham, BOOP!

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw
Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time
Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves: The Musical
Joy Woods, Gypsy

Who Will Probably Win: Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Who Should Win: Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw or Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Bonnie Langford, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, Beth Leavel, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, Jordan Tyson, Gypsy

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

Glenn Davis, Purpose
Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor is the Villain
Francis Jue, Yellow Face
Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross
Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

Who Will Probably Win: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

Who Should Win: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

Who Should Have Been Nominated: James Scully, Oh, Mary!

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

Tala Ashe, English
Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Marjan Neshat, English
Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain
Kara Young, Purpose

Who Will Probably Win: Kara Young, Purpose

Who Should Win: Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Alana Arenas, Purpose, Molly Bernard, Cult of Love

Best Direction of a Play

Knud Adams, English
Sam Mendes, The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!
Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain
Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Who Will Probably Win: Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!

Who Should Win: Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Trip Cullman, Cult of Love

Best Direction of a Musical

Saheem Ali, Buena Vista Social Club
Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer, Dead Outlaw
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

Who Will Probably Win: Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending

Who Should Win: Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Mayer, Swept Away

Maybe Happy Ending Photo: Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Best Book of a Musical

Buena Vista Social Club, Marco Ramirez
Dead Outlaw, Itamar Moses
Death Becomes Her, Marco Pennette
Maybe Happy Ending, Will Aronson and Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat, David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts

What Will Probably Win: Maybe Happy Ending