2025 Oscar Predictions: What Venice Film Festival, TIFF Premieres Tell Us About the Oscar Race

We’re still in the early stages of the 2025 Oscar predictions season, and there’s good news and (maybe for some) bad news associated with that.

The good news is that we know more this week than we knew last week. We know that The Brutalist probably isn’t going to be just a festival-only event having won Best Director at the Venice Film Festival. We know that Nicole Kidman’s awards profile has been elevated thanks to her surprise Best Actress win in Venice too, even if it’s the absolute last thing on her mind given her personal trauma. We also know that, thanks to its premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, Amy Adams’s awards trajectory isn’t as dead as people would have had you believe given the birth of Nightbitch‘s trailer last week. Initial audiences seemed to embrace the film tentatively, relieved it wasn’t the disaster they’d anticipated. Early reviews seem to be positive, singling out her performance, so she’s still in play.

But I would caution you to remember that festival audiences live in a kind of a hermetically sealed environment. Having attended a few myself, everything you see at a festival feels, at least in my experience, either the best movie you’ve ever seen or the worst movie you’ve ever seen. It’s probably the side effect of sitting through film after film all day long. Your brain starts to go into shock, and you tend to lose your ability to think critically.

At least that’s my experience, anyway. I mention that because we’ll need to wait for Nightbitch (and to be fair Saturday Night, The Brutalist, The Room Next Door, and more) to screen outside of the festival circuit to know how they’ll be received in the real world. One potential casualty of The Brutalist‘s recent purchase by A24 would be Sing Sing. That’s the kind of film that the studio will need to bring back with lavish campaigning, ad spending, and critics awards. They’re not going to prioritize that over The Brutalist, in my opinion. I think Colman Domingo will still be campaigned and likely receive a nomination, particularly following his nomination last year for Netflix’s Rustin. But the film itself and additional nominations will be starved for attention in competition with The Brutalist. Unless The Brutalist is too long or too cold for Academy tastes and Sing Sing plays incredibly well on screeners at home (which I think it will).

The bad news about where we are in Oscar season, fully depending on your perspective of course, is there isn’t really a true frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s not much consensus among the experts. Conclave, Anora, Sing Sing, Gladiator II, and Emilia Pérez all have mentions in the as-of this week number one slot. That’s probably a good thing because it makes an Oscar season all the more exciting not having a pre-ordained winner.

I still have Conclave in my top spot as a potential Best Picture winner. Am I 100 percent confident in that? Of course not. It’s too early, and who knows how the film’s reputation will shift and mold throughout the remainder of the season. Problem is, there are plusses and minuses associated with every single title in contention. Nothing feels right at the moment. We’re still in the “anything’s possible” phase of the race, and if you’re following this from August to March, then it’s far more fun this way. Trust me.

The Venice Film Festival announced their winners last weekend, and Pedro Almodovar’s English language debut received the Golden Lion award — their equivalent of Best Picture. That’s good news for the title as, over the last 10 awards, the winner went on to score a Best Picture nomination more often than not. Here’s the list:

2024 – The Room Next Door
2023 – Poor Things – Best Picture nom
2022 – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2021 – Happening
2020 – Nomadland – Best Picture winner
2019 – Joker – Best Picture nom
2018 – Roma – Best Picture nom
2017 – The Shape of Water – Best Picture winner
2016 – The Woman Who Left
2015 – From Afar

You’d be wise to put The Room Next Door into your Best Picture lineup based on that. It’s not a slam dunk, of course, but the odds are slightly in its favor. Speaking of Joker, its sequel — Joker: Folie à Deux — met with a very divisive, some would say hostile, reaction. I didn’t have director Todd Phillips in my top five, but are we certain that the film won’t make it into the top 10? The Metacritic score of 54 would say no, but that’s only five points lower than Joker‘s 59. The problem right now is the lack of “100” reviews for the sequel, showing early critics who at least like the film generally don’t LOVE it (except for our critic Frank J. Avella). As you know for a Best Picture Oscar nomination, you have to have around 200 number one votes. Will the “musical” inspire the same adoration? Or is this only a Lady Gaga supporting campaign with some crafts sprinkled in? Until I see the broader critical and box office reaction (the Cinemascore is probably going to be poisonous), I’m leaving it in at number ten.

Other notable Venice winners include Kidman, winning Best Actress for her performance in Babygirl. That was a bit of a surprise with most people pointing to Julianne Moore or Tilda Swinton as potential winners. So, does that put Kidman into the race for an Oscar nomination? Everyone seemed to think that last year’s winner, Cailee Spaeny for Priscilla, would receive her first Oscar nomination, but that didn’t happen. It wasn’t without precedent, of course. Several Volpi Cup winners have gone onto Oscar nominations (and even wins) over the last 10 years, but the stat is slightly less positive for Actresses. Here’s the list:

2024 – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
2023 – Cailee Spaeney, Priscilla
2022 – Cate Blanchett, Tár – Best Actress nomination
2021 – Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers – Best Actress nomination
2020 – Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman – Best Actress nomination
2019 – Ariane Ascaride, Gloria Mundi
2018 – Olivia Colman, The Favourite – Best Actress win
2017 – Charlotte Rampling, Hannah
2016 – Emma Stone, La La Land – Best Actress win
2015 – Valeria Golino, Per amor vostro

So, looking at that, it’s a 50/50 shot for Kidman to make it into Oscar’s top five. It will help if a few critics get behind her over Angelia Jolie or Karla Sofia Gascon. She will also face stiff competition for one of the five slots from Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths star Marianne Jean-Baptiste who last showed in the Oscar game with her astounding performance in Leigh’s Secrets and Lies. At least initially, Hard Truths feels like Mike Leigh’s best film in years. The early critics reviews would seem to agree.

So, thanks to festival season, Best Actress looks to be a real race, as it typically is.

But enough about all of that. Here are my updated predictions with a mixture of what I’ve actually seen, what friends I trust have seen, and what I’m hearing following the festival circuit. Next week, we’ll have the TIFF People’s Choice Award winner which, more often that not, forecasts a Best Picture nomination.

But that’s for next week…

2025 Oscar Predictions (September 10)

Best Picture

• Conclave
• Gladiator II
• The Brutalist
• Anora
• A Real Pain
• Emilia Pérez
• Dune: Part Two
• The Room Next Door
• Saturday Night
• Joker: Folie à Deux

Watch Out For: Nickel Boys

Best Director

• Edward Berger, Conclave
• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
• Sean Baker, Anora
• Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Watch Out For: Pedro Almodovar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

• Angelina Jolie, Maria
• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
• Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
• Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Watch Out For: Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

Best Actor

• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
• Daniel Craig, Queer
• Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Watch Out For: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

• Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
• Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
• Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
• Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Watch Out For: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actor

• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
• Stanley Tucci, Conclave
• Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
• Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
• Guy Pierce, The Brutalist

Watch Out For: Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave
• The Piano Lesson
• Nickel Boys
• The Room Next Door
• Queer

Watch Out For: Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

• A Real Pain
• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Emilia Pérez
• Saturday Night

Watch Out For: Hard Truths