2025 Oscars: What the Globes Told Us, Plus SAG, DGA Previews

NOTE: Updated with DGA predictions at the end of the piece. 

Sunday night’s Golden Globes seemed to be positively received both online and through traditional television ratings. I mean, gone are the days of 20+ million ratings for events like this thanks to the prevalence of instant online reactions and streaming opportunities. I received a press release from Dick Clark Productions relaying new ratings information today, and 20 years ago, it would have focused on the standard Nielsen overnight ratings. Instead, here are the talking points:

• The 82^nd ANNUAL GOLDEN GLOBES® averaged 10.1 million viewers, a notable feat while up against Sunday Night’s NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions on NBC.
• The 82^nd ANNUAL GOLDEN GLOBES® live-streaming audience was up 9% from last year on Paramount+ and the CBS App.
• This year’s Golden Globes was the #1 broadcast special across all of TV in the last 12 months, driving 40 million social interactions on show night.
• The 2025 Golden Globes was also The Most Social Golden Globes show ever, up +124% YOY outperforming the 2024 social media numbers for both the Oscars and Grammys.
• Overwhelming social media, the 82^nd ANNUAL GOLDEN GLOBES surpassed 45.1 billion potential impressions, up 52% from last year.

They’re very desperate to proclaim the telecast a success as you can see, which I have no issue with. I like the Golden Globes, and life is more fun with them in it. Granted, I do miss the truly crazy Golden Globes. The ones who didn’t rubber stamp the Emmys, and the ones who would have given Selena Gomez Supporting Actress instead of Zoe Saldaña. But Sunday night’s wins were very respectable and blessed by the online narrative, particularly with I’m Still Here‘s Fernanda Torres’s unexpected win for Female Actor in a Motion Picture Drama. Even the *surprise* win of Flow in the Animated category shouldn’t really have surprised in the cold light of day. It was nominated for Non-English Language Film, and it’s been quietly building strength in the international community for the past several weeks.

So, what did the Golden Globes really tell us about the 2025 Oscar race? Here are five insights I personally took away from the Globes.

1. Demi Moore Will Be Tough To Beat. The online reaction to Demi Moore’s win for The Substance ran the gamut. First, there was a great deal of joy and adoration, particularly with That Speech and with the much-shared video of Moore’s friends and family (and, I think, Bruce Willis) screaming and shouting with glee. Then, several commentators (my friend Mark Johnson among them) made fun of the need to put Moore #1 in their Best Actress Oscar predictions. Then, a few even made statements such as “This cements Demi’s Oscar nomination.” THAT cemented it? The nomination was already secured, in my opinion. Sunday night only made the case stronger for her to WIN the Oscar. Mikey Madison will probably win at Critics Choice this weekend, but Demi has a lot of friends in the industry. She’ll likely win at SAG, and that will essentially be that. Granted, this is all speculation right now. Anora is stronger than the Globes would have you believe, and Oscar has a long history of rewarding actresses who tackle roles like Ani. But Demi Moore’s once cast-aside narrative may be impossible to overcome.
2. Best Picture Is Still a Toss-Up. Maybe I’m being stubborn or short-sighted, but I still don’t believe we have a true frontrunner for Best Picture. If last year’s Golden Globes established a new narrative for the New Globes (every Oscar winner won at the Globes first), then your Best Picture is between The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez. I have a hard time imagining The Brutalist winning with a preferential ballot. That’s not a statement on the quality of the film. Rather, it’s a statement on the recent trend at the Oscars for “the film everybody likes” winning the big prize. Not everyone likes The Brutalist. I could be wrong. So that leaves Emilia Pérez. That film’s unpopularity online clearly hasn’t aligned with actual awards voters. It led the Globes in nominations and wins. It led the BAFTA shortlist. It’s probably going to lead the Oscar nominations. Could this finally be Netflix’s Best Picture win? If not that, then what? Conclave? Wicked? The alternatives are running thin.
3. So Is Best Actor… Or Is It? Going into Sunday’s Globes, predictions were all over the place for Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama, ranging across the three main Oscar contenders: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), and the eventual winner Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Of the three post-Globes, Chalamet — as good as he is in the performance sequences of the Dylan biopic — seems the most unlikely. Here’s why: he became the butt of the joke several times during the course of the presentation (see: Nikki Glaser’s joke about his mustache). The post-Globes narrative centered less around “Why didn’t Timothée win?” and more around “Why didn’t Demi Moore talk to Kylie Jenner. This could obviously change as the international voting block here likely didn’t connect with a Bob Dylan biopic, but for now, let’s say it’s between Ralph Fiennes and Adrien Brody. I would like to say that Fiennes still has a shot, and maybe he does. He’s never won despite turning in dozens of acclaimed performances. He hasn’t even been nominated since The English Patient, but most Best Actor winners win something along the way. Even Brendan Fraser picked up a few wins before ultimately taking SAG (he lost the Globe to Austin Butler for Elvis). I believe Fiennes or even Chalamet are more likely to win at SAG than Adrien Brody, so that will make things even dicier for Oscar. Ultimately, you could say we’re in another 2003 Oscar season where two contenders duke it out and Brody comes in for the win thanks to vote splitting. We’ll obviously know more after SAG, but for now I’m sticking with Fiennes assuming a SAG win and the overdue narrative kicking in (juxtaposed with Brody already having an Oscar).
4. The Supporting Race Is All Sewed Up. As good as Guy Pearce is in The Brutalist, I’ve always considered Kieran Culkin the frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actor for his emotional, volcanic, and brilliant performance in A Real Pain. Nothing comes close honestly. Winning the Globe Sunday night solidified that, and he will win Critics Choice and SAG. It’s one of those performances that sweeps everything up in its path. On the Supporting Actress side of the house, it appeared for a few weeks that Wicked‘s Ariana Grande would pose a significant threat to Emilia Pérez’s Zoe Saldaña, but the Wicked lust (at least for now) appears to have subsided a bit. If she were going to win the Oscar, then she would have picked up a win at the Globes. Saldaña is the most likely acting Oscar winner for Emilia Pérez, and it appears that the increasing adoration for the film from voting audiences will carry her forward. There’s a slight chance that Grande wins at Critics Choice, but at the end of the day, Saldaña will be too difficult to ignore.
5. Director Is Probably Locked Too. Brady Corbet received a much-deserved Director Globe win Sunday night, likely solidifying the narrative that he would win the Oscar due to the sheer epic undertaking of The Brutalist. He deserves to win, in my opinion, and having his daughter so prominently joyous at the Globes certainly didn’t hurt. But all year long, there really hasn’t been a challenger to a Corbet win — at least not since Venice. Some have said Anora‘s Sean Baker was the frontrunner, but as good as Anora is, I personally don’t consider it a triumph of direction. Anora is writing and performance driven. For the longest time, many predictors had Jacques Audiard missing out on a nomination completely in favor of the artier turn from RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance). Neither of those two are totally out for nominations, but Sunday’s and BAFTA’s big showing for Emilia Pérez likely secured him the nomination. But who can beat Corbet? None of the challengers seem particularly strong at the moment, and Corbet’s Oscar win is looking more and more like the easiest win for The Brutalist next March.

But those are just my thoughts. Feel free to disagree in the comments below!

SAG PREVIEW

The nominations for the 2025 Screen Actors Guild Awards will drop tomorrow, Wednesday, January 8. Recently, the SAG Ensemble trophy has been the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner. There’s a theory that’s run through the past few seasons that began with Parasite and has relevance through a few SAG ceremonies since then. It could be a total coincidence and pre-determined before SAG, but the winners of the SAG Ensemble award that cause the audience to leap to their feet for a standing ovation will likely go on to win Best Picture. It starts (or solidifies) a “feel good” narrative that’s impossible to beat. The enthusiasm trend (or the “voting for the winner” mentality) started with Parasite, repeated with CODA, and repeated again with Everything Everywhere All At Once. Could be a coincidence, but I think not.

So, what ensemble this year could win and get that SAG audience to their feet? There’s really only one in my mind: Emilia Pérez. See a narrative forming? Not only would SAG celebrate the inclusive cast, but they would also celebrate the first transgender actress to win a SAG award. Nothing else this year even remotely touches this history-making sensibility that could feed a Best Picture win. The only other possibility I could see would be Conclave receiving the award because it’s a true ensemble piece with a fantastic cast.

So, with that, here are my thoughts as to who will be SAG nominated tomorrow. There will undoubtedly be at least one surprise that no one will see coming, but that’s what makes this fun.

2025 SAG Predictions

Film Ensemble

Anora

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Sing Sing

Wicked

Film Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Film Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)

Angelina Jolie (Maria)

Mikey Madison (Anora)

Demi Moore (The Substance)

Film Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

Stanley Tucci (Conclave)

Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Film Supporting Actress

Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)

Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

DGA PREVIEW

So, I forgot that tomorrow also marks the debut of the 2025 DGA top five. Running out of time today, so here are my predicted five nominees in the Feature Film category.

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

John M. Chu, Wicked

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist