2025 Oscar Predictions: Breaking Down This Year’s Supporting Actress Contenders

Is it me or is the category ‘Outstanding Actress in a Supporting Role’ — both in terms of nominations and wins — wackier than most any other?

Gloria Grahame (The Bad and the Beautiful, 1952), Beatrice Straight (Network, 1976) and Dame Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love, 1998) all won for less than 10 minutes of screen time—heck, Straight was only in Network for 5 minutes, 40 seconds. Ingrid Bergman had one brief but potent scene in Murder on the Orient Express in 1974 and took home her third Oscar.

Then, at the other end of the spectrum, Tatum O’Neal (Paper Moon, 1973), Peggy Ashcroft (A Passage to India, 1984), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl, 2015) and Viola Davis (Fences, 2016) are just four examples of category fraud. They took home Supporting Oscars for LEAD performances.

Yet, as infuriating as I may feel some years (like 2022), I still love this category.

As my colleague and The Contending’s co-founder, Joey Moser pointed out in a recent piece — and I’m paraphrasing — gays are just gaga for Best Actress. Ergo the next most exciting category, especially for gay men, is Supporting Actress. Yet almost every year there are whiney (mostly straight male) bloggers complaining that there aren’t enough good performances to fill it. Are these journos clueless? If anything, the category is usually overflowing with great performances that go completely overlooked by the Bro-Brigade. And 2024 is no exception.

Last year, Da’Vine Joy Randolph was the runaway choice for The Holdovers, sweeping the precursors. 2022 saw one of the most stupefying upsets when Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) beat front-runners Kerry Condon (Banshees of Inisherin) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever).

Historically, AMPAS loves to pull upsets here. Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny (1992), Anna Paquin in The Piano (1993), Juliette Binoche in The English Patient [over presumed shoo-in Lauren Bacall in The Mirror Has Two Faces (1996)], Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock (2000), Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton (2007), the aforementioned Curtis — and that’s just going back to the 1990s.

The Academy also loves to sneak in a few out-of-left-field surprise nominees like Diane Ladd in Wild at Heart (1990), Jennifer Tilly in Bullets Over Broadway (1994), Joan Cusack in In and Out (1997), Samantha Morton in Sweet and Lowdown (1999), Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart (2009), Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine (2013), Marina de Tavira in Roma (2018), Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy (2020), and Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter (2021). Again, that’s just back through the 1990s.

So, let’s take a look at where the race is, currently.

I must state, up front, that until most of the films in consideration are released, it’s difficult to really speculate on the few that have yet to be screened for press.

The general feeling in the blogosphere and among Oscar watchers is that there are two locks. I’ve seen one and agree and will be seeing the other soon.

Let’s begin with Zoe Saldaña’s amazing work in Emilia Pérez. The Jacques Audiard genre-buster is a true ensemble film, but it’s Saldaña’s potent turn as an undervalued attorney who decides to work for a mobster that stands out most. She’s been doing consistently fantastic work onscreen in indies and blockbusters, the most significant, Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water, both Best Picture Oscar contenders. This will likely be her year to finally be rewarded with her first Oscar nomination.

I’ve yet to see Malcolm Washington’s adaptation of August Wilson’s seminal play The Piano Lesson, but even those who are not taken with it have cited Danielle Deadwyler’s performance as a major contender. And lest we forget she was egregiously overlooked two years ago for her searing portrayal of Mamie Till in Till. It would be her first nomination.

There are no less than ten other names bubbling up on lists, some more deservedly than others. Most would be scoring first-time Oscar love.

Isabella Rossellini has never been Oscar-nominated despite delivering fab offbeat turns in films like Death Becomes Her (“Now, a warning.”) But does she really do enough in Conclave to warrant a mention? Yes, she has one memorable moment that could grab her this year’s America Ferrera nod. That likelihood will probably hinge on how much the Academy loves Conclave. Rossellini is the daughter of film royalty, 3-time Oscar-winner Ingrid Bergman and Italian Neorealist filmmaker and Oscar nominee, Roberto Rossellini. So that doesn’t hurt her chances.

It’s not odd for two female actors to receive nominations for the same film. It actually happens quite frequently (The Favourite, The Fighter, The Help, Up in the Air, Doubt, Chicago, Gosford Park, Almost Famous, Bullets Over Broadway—and that just covers the last 30 years). That places Emmy nominee Selena Gomez in a great position to garner her first Oscar nod for her gritty and often-hilarious work in Emilia Pérez. It would also mark the first time two Latina actresses were nominated in the same year for the same film.

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor is the standout in RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys, and she has that one Oscar scene you often need to snag a nomination — a heartbreaking sequence where she visits her grandson. The Academy owes her for stiffing her last year for her astonishing work in Ava Duvernay’s Origin. She was also terrific in the indie film Exhibiting Forgiveness, which opens this month as well. This would mark her second nomination after a nod for King Richard in 2022.

A deserving dark horse pick would be Leonie Benesch’s quiet and compelling portrayal of a German interpreter in September 5, Tim Fehlbaum’s riveting look the 1972 ABC Sports coverage of the Munich Olympics where Palestinian terrorists held the Israeli Olympic team hostages. Benesch also gave one of last year’s best performances in Germany’s International Feature entry The Teacher’s Lounge.

The wild card in this category is Lady Gaga. While most critics have (unjustly) crapped on Joker: Folie à Deux, Gaga’s performance has received good notices. And she did recently miss out on what was assumed a shoo-in nod for Ridley Scott’s misguided House of Gucci in 2022. Box office has been disappointing as the media’s been reporting ad nauseum, but I would not count her out just yet. Gaga won an Oscar for Original Song and has a nomination for Actress in A Star is Born as well as two other songwriting nods.

Margaret Qualley’s insane work in The Substance is another long shot possibility and will hinge on how much members will be able to stomach the body horror gorefest. I would also argue that Demi Moore should campaign in this category, but I seem to be alone.

Felicity Jones could very well ride a The Brutalist adoration wave if Oscar voters are as keen on it as crix/bloggers — despite her being the film’s weakest link. She was nominated once before in 2014 for The Theory of Everything.

A sublime performance that hasn’t been appearing on many journos’ radar is Carol Kane in Nathan Silver’s heartfelt indie Between the Temples. Hers is a truly eclectic and extraordinary career that ostensibly began with her hypnotic turn in Joan Micklin Silver’s Hester Street, her first and only Oscar nomination. Kane did not receive any precursor mentions back in 1975, but AMPAS members attended screenings of the film and liked what they saw.

The trilogy of dynamic female actors in Azazel Jacob’s His Three Daughters — Carrie Coon, Elizabeth Olsen, and Natasha Lyonne — are all campaigning in Support. Can one squeak through?

Saoirse Ronan does strong work in The Outrun but may get left out of the Actress race since the field is so crowded. That could make way for her being cited in Supporting for Steve McQueen’s highly anticipated Blitz, closing this year’s New York Film Festival. This would mark her 5^th nomination.

Emily Watson is overdue for a mention having received 2 nominations in the late 90s (Breaking the Waves, Hilary and Jackie) but none since. Word out of Berlin earlier in the year was that she is superb in Tim Mielants’ Small Things Like These starring Cilian Murphy.

A few other candidates that have outside chances include Rachel Sennott in Saturday Night, Fernanda Montenegro in I’m Still Here. Michele Austin in Hard Truths, Lesley Manville in Queer, and Joan Chen in Dìdi.

I’d be amiss if I didn’t cite two fine comedic triumphs that no one is discussing: Jessie Buckley in Wicked Little Letters and Jeannie Berlin in I’ll Be Right There.

Still to be seen: Ariana Grande and Michelle Yeoh in Wicked: Part One, Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown, Toni Collette in Juror #2, and Robin Wright in Here.

Finally, let’s never forget Glenn Close. If she can score nominations for Albert Nobbs and Hillbilly Elegy then we should gird our loins for a potential curve ball. Her scenery chewing in Lee Daniels’ The Deliverance is the stuff of true Oscar bait… if this was the mid-1950s. Still, you never know…

My current predictions:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
5. Leonie Benesch, September 5