2024 Emmy Predictions: Frontrunners, Spoilers As Voting Closes

As The Contending launches, voting members of the Television Academy will have to rush their final ballots as Phase 2 voting closes today at 10pm PT. With a television season massively impacted by 2023’s guild strikes, the competition remains mostly scarce with a handful of categories truly up for grabs.

More on that later.

Looking back across the Emmy season, the biggest story came as FX’s critically acclaimed juggernaut Shōgun changed category placement from Limited Series to Drama Series after declaring there would be a second season. It was a wise move to make that shift now. Certainly, other Limited Series have made the shift before — PBS’s Downton Abbey and HBO’s Big Little Lies and The White Lotus are three contenders that spring immediately to mind.

Making the shift always brings about a significant amount of grousing within the online community. Who knows what voting members of the Television Academy think? I don’t have any issues with a Limited Series that decides to extend its run if it warrants the extension. The only issue I’ve ever had with enforcing the shift lies with The White Lotus. I will go to my grave believing that The White Lotus: Sicily remains the second season in an ANTHOLOGY SERIES. Just because Jennifer Coolidge’s character returns does not continue the theming and broad character plot lines of the Maui-set season. They are two unique halves of a brilliant whole.

But whatever. It is what it is. Just don’t argue with me. I won’t listen. Ha. Just kidding. Sort of.

Anyway, Shōgun moving to Drama Series meant that presumed frontrunner The Crown took a step down in most predictions. Even if the final season in Netflix’s acclaimed, Emmy-winning run didn’t wow audiences or critics, it was broadly deemed to be the de facto winner thanks to the strike-impacted season. I would never predict it, but is there a “homework factor” at play with Shōgun? Would voting members of the Television Academy dare admit they didn’t watch the series by rewarding The Crown instead? I don’t really think so, but there’s a tiny, likely idiotic voice in the back of my head that whispers it could happen.

No, the real race among the primary categories is with the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series category. In a normal year, this is a category that no one would really care about. However, once Robert Downey Jr. received his Oscar for Oppenheimer, Emmy watchers stumbled over themselves to proclaim he would add an Emmy to his mantle for his work in HBO’s The Sympathizer. That is, until people actually saw the series. So who does that leave? Well, that race is truly wide open with a potential winner coming from at least five out of seven slots. It brings a little heat to an otherwise traditionally dull category, which is always nice if you watch these things.

Also, another potential fun watch is the race between The Bear and Hacks in the major comedy races. Yes, The Bear season two is universally beloved, and the Television Academy proved with Ted Lasso that they aren’t afraid of repeating themselves. But Hacks holds the heat right now given its late spring birth. Plus, it’s an actual, laugh-out-loud comedy. Of course, The Bear is very likely to take home a ton of trophies. Recent Emmy history also proved that voting members of the Television Academy don’t really pay attention to categories or potential genre bias. If they love a show, then they love a show. They’ll likely go for The Bear, but I suspect it won’t win all of the major races. It will take direction, Hacks will take writing, and after that, it’s game on.

Still, we’re ready to put this season behind us and move on to Oscars 2025 and Emmys 2025. Next year’s Emmys will be a doozy with a massive amount of competition airing over the next several months and into 2025.

We just need to push through this year, and it’s gravy baby.

2024 Emmy Predictions

* Indicates Frontrunner

~ Indicates Potential Spoiler

Drama Series
The Crown ~
Fallout
The Gilded Age
The Morning Show
Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Shōgun *
Slow Horses
3 Body Problem

Drama Actress
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Anna Sawai, Shōgun *
Imelda Staunton, The Crown ~
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

Drama Actor
Idris Elba, Hijack
Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Walton Goggins, Fallout ~
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses ~
Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun *
Dominic West, The Crown

Supporting Actress, Drama
Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown ***************
Greta Lee, The Morning Show
Lesley Manville, The Crown
Karen Pittman, The Morning Show
Holland Taylor, The Morning Show ~

Supporting Actor, Drama
Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun *
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show ~
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show
Takehiro Hira, Shōgun
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown

Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary
The Bear *
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Hacks ~
Only Murders in the Building
Palm Royale
Reservation Dogs
What We Do In the Shadows

Comedy Actress
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear ~
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Maya Rudolph, Loot
Jean Smart, Hacks *
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale

Comedy Actor
Matt Berry, What We Do In the Shadows
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm ~
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear *
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs

Supporting Actress, Comedy
Carol Burnett, Palm Royale
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear ~
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks *
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building

Supporting Actor, Comedy
Lionel Boyce, The Bear
Paul W. Downs, Hacks ~
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear *
Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

Limited Series
Baby Reindeer *
Fargo 
Lessons in Chemistry
Ripley
True Detective: Night Country ~

Limited Series / TV Film Actress
Jodie Foster, True Detective *
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Juno Temple, Fargo ~
Sofia Vergara, Griselda ~
Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote Vs. the Swans

Limited Series / TV Film Actor
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer *
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote Vs. the Swans
Andrew Scott, Ripley ~

Supporting Actress, Limited Series
Dakota Fanning, Ripley
Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge
Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer *
Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry
Diane Lane, Feud: Capote Vs. the Swans
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer
Kali Reis, True Detective ~

Supporting Actor, Limited Series
Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers *
Robert Downey, Jr, The Sympathizer ~
Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby Reindeer ~
John Hawkes, True Detective ~
Lamorne Morris, Fargo
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote Vs. the Swans