Happy Tuesday, dear readers! Each week, we’ll rank the top 10 films in a specific category. While we aim to tie these lists to big releases, that won’t always be the case. Our goal? For you to enjoy, share your own lists, and join in on a lively, friendly debate. This is an interactive space to build community here at The Contending.
No fancy intros, no long essays – just a category and a list. Sound good?
I’ve been predicting the Oscars since 1997 (online since 2009), and this might just be the toughest race I’ve ever seen. Not only was there no clear frontrunner for most of the season, but the awards landscape has been more fractured than ever. Factor in the fires in L.A., delayed ceremonies, SAG and several guilds taking place after Oscar voting closed, and ACE happening after the Oscars altogether – it’s been an unpredictable and chaotic year.
Momentum seemed to swing sharply in Anora‘s favor after it swept CCA, DGA, and PGA in one weekend. But its vulnerability became clear when Conclave – the film I had been predicting from March until Anora‘s dominant run – rebounded by taking both top prizes at BAFTA and SAG. We have a hell of a race to the finish.
And the uncertainty doesn’t stop at Best Picture. From the top of the ballot to the most unexpected categories, this madness runs deep. From Best Picture to Best Original Song, these are the ten toughest races to call this year (excluding the Short films which are ALWAYS the most challenging to predict).
10. Director: Sean Baker vs. Brady Corbet
9. Cinematography: The Brutalist vs. Nosferatu vs. Maria
8. Sound: Dune: Part Two vs. A Complete Unknown vs. Wicked
7. Lead Actor: Adrien Brody vs. Timothée Chalamet
6. Film Editing: Conclave vs. Anora
5. Documentary Feature: Porcelain War vs. No Other Land vs. the field
4. International Feature: Emilia Perez vs. I’m Still Here
3. Picture: Anora vs. Conclave
2. Lead Actress: Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison vs. Fernanda Torres
1. Original Screenplay: Anora vs. A Real Pain vs. The Substance
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