Oscars 2025: The Surprises and Snubs From the 97th Oscar Noms

With the nominations for the 97^th Academy Awards announced this morning it’s easy to say that for the most part everything went as expected. The six expected frontrunners remain the favorites of the year (Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Anora). On top of that an evolving Academy further embraced international films like I’m Still Here struck down genre bias with a strong showing for The Substance.

Emilia Perez led the morning with a grand total of 13 nominations garnering support from nearly every branch of the Academy and solidifying itself as the Best Picture frontrunner. With 13 nominations the film now ties for the second most nominations for a film in a single year alongside past Best Picture winners like Gone With the Wind, Chicago, and of course Oppenheimer.

The Academy adoration for Emilia Perez shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone after raking in coveted prizes everywhere from Cannes to the Golden Globes. Still the film’s major recognition among awards groups feels almost in opposition to both online engagement to the film as well as its record low audience scores on platforms like Letterboxd and Rotten Tomatoes (where the film risks receiving being scored lower by audiences than any recent Best Picture winner).

Still, there is no denying the fact that Emilia Perez is the formidable and unexpected frontrunner in an ever-changing Oscar race. In a world of sequels, reboots, and remakes this original musical, helmed by international auteur Jacques Audiard, has clearly inspired the industry and will enter Oscar night as a strong contender in many categories.

The major frontrunners received the nominations they were expected to receive with Emilia Perez at the front with 13 nominations. Even with recognition in categories other films weren’t eligible (International Film and multiple song nods) it still is one of the most widely recognized films of the year, solidifying its status as the Oscar frontrunner.

The other frontrunners were acknowledged largely as expected; Anora (6 Nominations), Conclave (8), A Complete Unknown (8), Wicked (10), and The Brutalist (10).

Unfortunately, the only major contender to underperform was Focus Features’ Conclave. With 8 nominations including Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay the film had a strong showing except for the glaring omission of the film’s director Edward Berger. Most assumed that Berger receiving both a DGA and a BAFTA nomination would be enough to keep him in the Oscar conversation on top of the fact that Conclave was a box office success for mid-budget adult dramas. Between Conclave and All Quiet on The Western Front, Berger’s films have received a total of 17 nominations and hopefully his next feature will garner him some recognition.

Beyond the director race an argument could be made that most of the frontrunners slightly overperformed. The Brutalist was able to overcome tepid guild and precursor obstacles and earn a coveted editing nomination while also not missing out on any potential acting nominations. Wicked received a nomination for Original Score despite being a mixture of original music and its source material from Broadway. A Complete Unknown overcame the Academy’s recent mainstream bias with James Mangold receiving his first Best Director nomination after years of directing Oscar friendly films.

The re-election of Donald Trump and our overall political climate has led to endless conversations and think pieces as to which Best Picture contender would tap into the zeitgeist of the moment. There’s an argument to be made that Emilia Perez is that film however I think there are a lot of other, and not to mention conflicting factors that make it the Oscar frontrunner.

Instead, I would argue the film that is encapsulating our current political climate that seems to have voters flocking to it is none other than A Complete Unknown. The first time that Trump took office a lot of us were looking for ways to make a difference and champion those that are most marginalized with a film like Moonlight. Now, almost a decade later, this moment feels a lot more despondent. Instead we are seeing a lot of people shut themselves away and in the case of Oscar voters (many of which are Baby Boomers of the Dylan generation) they are leaning into nostalgia for a different time that also had its political struggles that they can now look back to with a sense of optimism.

In the acting categories a surprising two-way race is possibly emerging for Lead Actress. It seems that on top of the Golden Globes solidifying Demi Moore as the frontrunner for what might be her career defining work in The Substance it also catapulted Fernanda Torres into the competition as well. I’m Still Here surprised everyone by landing in the Best Picture race. Moore remains the clear frontrunner off the massive popularity of The Substance as well as her show stopping acceptance speech however both actresses have compelling narratives that could push them forward. Giving Moore the edge however is the opportunity to sweep through the pre-cursors with nominations at SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTAS while we won’t see Torres in a lineup again until Oscar night on March 2nd.

The Surprises

Overall, this year’s nominations followed the trade and online consensus that closely matched the guilds and precursors. There were however a few surprises that had people cheering.

A premature consensus in the Best Picture race had everyone assuming the final two slots would be filled by Sing Sing and A Real Pain (two films that had relatively strong showings in other categories). In the end voters surprised everyone and lent their votes to two films largely ignored in the conversation I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys. With the support of Sony Pictures I’m Still Here was able to find an audience within the Academy off of strong International support and a surprise Golden Globe win for its star, Fernanda Torres. Nickel Boys overcoming a botched and nearly nonexistent release strategy was championed by critics and eventually found an audience within the Academy.

September 5 earned a nomination for Original Screenplay culminating in a wild ride for the film after earning strong praise from critics following its Venice and Telluride debuts as well as a surprise Golden Globe and PGA nomination. At the same time however the film suffered from a frustratingly delayed release in the United States causing many to doubt if it were a real contender. It begs the question if studios had more faith in a film like this that was widely well received could it have been a strong contender in other categories like editing or even Best Picture?

In his post Marvel run Sebastian Stan has become the most recent blockbuster actor to earn Academy recognition, this year for his work as a young Trump in The Apprentice. This was particularly surprising as many assumed Stan would split the vote between this and his work in the more positively received A Different Man. In the end Oscar voters stuck to what they know best, transformative biopics, but overall this nomination will be remembered as a monumental moment in Stan’s eclectic career.

The Snubs

The race that caused that sparked the most passionate conversation this year was none other than the Lead Actress race. You would be hard pressed to remember a race in recent years where past winners and Hollywood legends were completely ignored like Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Baby Girl), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), and Kate Winslet (Lee). It speaks to how competitive the year was as well as a rapidly changing industry.

One omission however stung the most – Marianne Jean-Baptiste for her groundbreaking reunion with legendary director Mike Leigh. It’s nearly impossible to articulate just how much of a tour-de-force Jean-Baptiste is in Hard Truths perfectly executing both humor and heart wrenching internal struggle. It’s a performance that earned her both a BAFTA nomination and the coveted critics trifecta of LAFCA, NYFCC, and NSFC.

In fact in the past 50 years she is only the 12^th actress to achieve the trifecta among performances including Cate Blanchett in Tar and Blue Jasmine, Holly Hunter in The Piano, Meryl Streep in Sophie’s Choice, and Sally Field in Norma Rae. Coincidentally the only other actress to achieve this and not go on to an Oscar nomination is another Mike Leigh collaboration, Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky.

There’s been a lot of theories as to why such a monumental performance couldn’t break into the Oscar conversation. Personally the “challenging character” argument doesn’t ring to be authentic. At the end of the day it is probably chalks up to the fact that the film wasn’t widely seen or accessible in a field of performances in films that were more universally recognized by both the Academy and precursor groups. In fact, this is the first year in the modern era where all ten actress nominees came from Best Picture nominees.

Other omissions that stood out this morning include Daniel Craig’s career best work in Queer, Margaret Qualley perfectly balancing out Moore in The Substance, the Irish film Kneecap in the International Film race, and Challengers, particularly for Editing and Original Score.