They’ve been slightly delayed, but the nominations for the 97th Annual Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow morning starting at 8:30am ET. You can obtain all of the necessary streaming information here.
The trick with this year’s nominations (and, honestly, extending to recent years) is that in most categories we have a really strong sense of what the nominees will be. Take Best Actor for example. It’s tough to imagine a scenario in which Ralph Fiennes, Timothée Chalamet, Adrien Brody, and (to a slightly lesser extent) Colman Domingo miss out. I suppose Sing Sing‘s relatively muted presence on the recent awards circuit could allow for a Domingo omission, but I doubt it. He’s very good in the film, and he’s shown up in nearly every major Best Actor race so far this year. Plus, he was a nominee last year for Rustin. I would never bet against him.
But, as with many categories, that fifth Best Actor slot is a little more challenging to predict. Granted, there isn’t a wide field from which to choose this year. In our final The Contending Consensus selections, that fifth slot comes down to three performances — two from the same person. Most predictors settle on the SAG Best Actor five and include Queer‘s Daniel Craig, but a few include Sebastian Stan for either The Apprentice or his Golden Globe-winning role in A Different Man. Since The Academy ties votes to a single performance and not to the actor, I suspect Stan will cancel himself out, and Craig receives his first Oscar nomination.
But that’s just an example. There are several categories where 3 or 4 nominations feel very safe, but that fifth slot is a true wild card.
So, with that in mind, I sat down this morning and thought about what categories would theoretically keep me up at night. If I allowed such things to interrupt my sleep, that is. I’ll explore those questions that, in my mind, are most unclear leading into tomorrow’s nomination announcement. One thing that’s sort of a “7.5” on this list is who will lead the nomination haul? Will two musicals, Emilia Pérez and Wicked, lead all contenders? Will Conclave have a BAFTA-like surge with The Academy? It’s not a massively suspenseful question, but it’s interesting to imagine the scenarios leading to 10+ nominations for any title.
With that, here are the 7 questions on my mind as we look forward to tomorrow’s announcement.
1. What fills that 10th Best Picture slot?
When looking at the 10 slots for Best Picture, I’m seeing nine of them fairly safe in terms of a nomination. Well, to be fair, I believe eight are locked: Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Anora, The Brutalist, Wicked, The Substance, Dune: Part Two, and A Complete Unknown. A Real Pain seems very likely as well, although it’s definitely not infallible. For argument’s sake, let’s say it’s in. So, which film fills that 10th Best Picture slot? Many are predicting September 5 after its appearance on the PGA 10, which isn’t a bad call. Both organizations use the preferential ballot, so there were clearly enough #1 votes within the voting body of the Producers Guild to warrant a slot. I loved September 5, and it would be a great nomination. However, the erratic release strategy coupled with a fairly muted guild (aside from PGA) and critics season will be a great deal to overcome.
Others point to Nickel Boys as a potential 10th Best Picture nominee, which would also be a deserving contender. However, the film missed a huge sort of “slam dunk” nomination at the American Society of Cinematographers, indicating weak support amongst the guilds. The omission was so bad because there were 7 nominated films, and Nickel Boys wasn’t one of them after nearly every review pointed to its direction and cinematography as top amongst the year’s best. The third option — the one I feel is most likely — would be Sing Sing. Of the final three contenders, it’s the one most likely to receive an acting nomination (Domingo for Best Actor with Clarence Maclin in contention for Supporting Actor), and we know the acting branch is the largest within The Academy. It’s also the most audience friendly of the three, and films that have broad appeal tend to perform better on preferential ballots. Finally, it’s been out since the summer. Remember when nearly everyone predicted it to WIN Best Picture? I’m banking on that buzz sticking with members of The Academy, allowing them to prioritize it in their screener pile.
2. How far will A Complete Unknown go?
Searchlight held A Complete Unknown until relatively late in the game. In the modern Oscars (let’s say, post preferential ballot), that usually doesn’t work in a film’s favor. I’m most immediately reminded of The Color Purple, which was heralded as an Oscar frontrunner all season until it was screened in late November, ultimately netting a single Oscar nomination. This year, A Complete Unknown looks to reverse that trend with a strong presence in critic and guild awards. It’s also a big presence within the Dylan-loving Boomer generation. It will be a Best Picture nominee, but how big will the film actually be? Star Timothée Chalamet seemed poised to win the Golden Globe earlier this month, but he lost to Adrien Brody. SAG gave it a huge boost with four nominations, but will The Academy respond in kind? Does Monica Barbaro get into Supporting Actress? Is Edward Norton guaranteed a Supporting Actor slot? Director James Mangold netted a Directors Guild mention, so is he the fifth director nominee at Oscar? Does it get into Adapted Screenplay? Do the crafts net multiple mentions? It’s just a blurry picture in my mind complicated by the late start date for its campaign.
3. Speaking of Supporting Actress, what happened to Margaret Qualley?
Headed into the final stage of Oscar Phase 1 campaigning, The Substance looked unstoppable for several major nominations. The film became “The Little Film That Could,” far outliving what everyone assumed was a brief box office run before streaming. Instead, it started showing up in critics group mentions and eventually won Demi Moore a Golden Globe, after which she gave a phenomenal speech. Suddenly, nearly everyone pivoted to Moore winning SAG and Best Actress at the Oscars. The common theory was that she would pull co-star Margaret Qualley along with her in Supporting Actress, which made sense because the two performances are tightly linked in the film. But then a weird thing happened. Qualley missed BAFTA, which was “no big deal” until she also missed at SAG. Qualley is fantastic in The Substance and fully deserves the nomination, so what gives? Will she really miss out in favor of Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) or Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)? Is The Substance suddenly weak? If Qualley misses a nomination, then does that mean Demi Moore isn’t really the frontrunner? A whole lot hinges on Qualley’s presence within Supporting Actress.
4. Also speaking of Supporting Actress, is Jamie Lee Curtis really a sure thing?
Gia Coppola’s The Last Showgirl came and went with polite reviews for the film and for its star Pamela Anderson. There was a lot of “We really like Pam” amongst the conversation, and only a few will actually admit to really disliking the film (which I still have yet to see). One of the biggest surprises within this year’s Oscar race, stemming from that film, is Jamie Lee Curtis’s rise to another Oscar nomination for her supporting turn in the film as Anderson’s best friend. It was a mild surprise that she showed on the BAFTA long list without Anderson mentioned. It was a big surprise that she actually received a BAFTA nomination. It was a huge surprise that the film showed up at SAG with two nominations (both for Curtis and Anderson). So, is Jamie Lee Curtis about to receive another Oscar nomination? A friend of mine (who shall remain anonymous) said to me recently, “Since when did Jamie Lee Curtis become a paragon of acting?” I’ve been conned into predicting her against my better judgment because the combo of SAG and BAFTA are hard to argue against. Plus, she’s incredibly popular within the SAG / WGA community after being so prominent within last year’s striking community. And people LOVED her in The Bear for which she received a well deserved Emmy. Even if she recently equated the Los Angeles fires to the devastation on the Gaza strip, she seems bound for another Oscar nod.
5. Did Fernanda Torres win her Golden Globe too late in the voting window?
The Golden Globes offered few surprises, but I’ll bet few saw Fernanda Torres winning Best Actress in a Drama for her acclaimed work in I’m Still Here. People have been raving about the film since the fall festival circuit, but she failed to show up in any meaningful way until her Globe nomination. The win catapulted her into many Best Actress predictions ahead of Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Angelina Jolie, and Nicole Kidman. But did it come too late? Oscar voters tend to watch screeners at home during the Christmas holiday season, and it’s doubtful that Torres’ work in I’m Still Here was high on their screener pile. It makes sense that she would have a larger presence within the Golden Globes community because they are much more international now than they’ve ever been, but will The Academy quickly respond to her work? She’s been out on the circuit lately, so she’s certainly trying. But the win may have been too late in the cycle, and Jean-Baptiste has been campaigning hard for months for a slot. Of course, they could both get in, leaving Emilia Pérez‘s Karla Sofia Gascon or Wicked‘s Cynthia Erivo out. We shall find out tomorrow…
6. Will The Academy surprise us with more The Apprentice nominations than we expect?
Jeremy Strong is tipped to receive his first Oscar nomination for his role as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. That’s a fairly safe bet since he’s picked up a few critics mentions (winning the Florida Film Critics Circle Supporting Actor award), and he’s received nominations at the Golden Globes, the Independent Spirit Awards, the BAFTAs, and the SAG Awards. There’s a pattern of Strong received mentions even if his co-star Sebastian Stan is left out. But The Apprentice could somewhat over-perform tomorrow as The Academy’s big “fuck you” to President Trump, who clearly hates the existence of the micro-budgeted and barely seen film. I’m not talking about a Best Picture nomination, but Stan could overcome his own vote splitting and make it into the Best Actor five. Or it could receive a random Makeup & Hair nomination. Or they could ignore the film completely and leave even Strong on the table. I doubt that will be the case. Instead, they’ll probably “play it safe” and nominate only Strong. It’s not the Trump performance, but it’s enough of a mention to at least signal they’ve seen the film. At this point, I would be more surprised if Strong missed entirely.
7. Speaking of Supporting Actor, did SAG tell us the category isn’t quite as sewed up as we originally thought?
One thing is certain about Supporting Actor this year: A Real Pain‘s Kieran Culkin will be nominated (and likely win). Everything after that is more fluid. We once thought it was a 2-way race between Culkin and The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce, but SAG threw us a curveball and left him off the list in favor of Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey. Could The Academy nominate Bailey if they REALLY love Wicked? Could they express more affection for Anora and nominate both Yura Borisov and Mark Eydelshteyn? What if Strong misses? Or Norton? Could they bring back Denzel Washington for his initially beloved turn in Gladiator II? Something in my gut tells me this isn’t entirely set in stone, although even I will admit that it’s not quite the shit show that Supporting Actress turned out to be after SAG weighed in.
But those are just my random musings before tomorrow’s nominations. You all probably know the answer to each of those questions already. But one thing that 35 years of Oscar watching has taught me, certainty is your biggest enemy.
Until tomorrow, here are the final The Contending Consensus predictions. You can see these as well as individual category / predictor predictions live here.
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