2025 Oscar Predictions: To Which Frocks Will the Academy Flock?

Hoop skirts and corsets and trains–oh my!

Costume Design is my favorite below-the-line category. A performer could have an entire idea of how their character walks, gestures and moves but that could all go out the window when they finally put on their costume. There is a lot to consider when we think about how the costumes pertain to time period and location before you even consider how a character would come to keep items of clothing in their closets. What are they comfortable in? Are they aware that they are wearing a lot of the same color? Do the colors change as their character speeds through their arcs? Is my theater kid enthusiasm showing?

Is there a frontrunner in this category? If so, is there any wiggle room? Let’s take a look at the contenders!

Sandy vs. Colleen (and The Academy’s Favorites)
The first question about this category that I always consider revolves around two of the most frequently nominated designers working today: Sandy Powell and Colleen Atwood. Powell has won three times (for Shakespeare in Love, The Aviator, and The Young Victoria, respectively) while Atwood has nabbed 4 Oscars (for Chicago, Memoirs of a Geisha, Alice in Wonderland and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them). Powell collaborates a lot with Martin Scorsese and Atwood has a close working relationship with Tim Burton. One could see how Powell has won for more period film centered stories and Atwood’s wins come from films with a highly dramatic and fantastical elements.

What makes this year easier is that Powell doesn’t have a feature film released this year, but she could come back with the upcoming Snow White adaptation from director Marc Webb. Atwood’s entry into this race comes in the form of another Burton collaboration: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. The original film won an Oscar for makeup but not costuming. Will spending more time in the realm of the dead lead Atwood’s next nomination?

There are frequent returning winners and nominees in this category who have a chance to win their first Academy Award.

• Jacqueline West has never won despite being nominated for Dune, The Revenant, and last year’s Killers of the Flower Moon. I personally think she should have won last year. She returns this season with Dune: Part Two.
• Mary Zophres was last nominated for Babylon and her period work in Fly Me to the Moon is an under-the-radar contender here. It would be her sixth nomination.
• Like Atwood and Powell, we shouldn’t count out Jacqueline Durran. A two-time winner (for Little Women and Anna Karenina), she could be in the conversation for Steve McQueen’s Blitz.
• Could Janty Yates win his second Oscar for the sandals sequel, Gladiator II? He won in 2000 for Ridley Scott’s first film and was most recently nominated for Napoleon last year (with David Crossman).
• Mark Bridges’ Joker designs were nominated back in 2019 and now three-time nominated costumer Arianne Phillips takes the hem. She has been nominated for Walk the Line, W. E., and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. Phillips also designed for James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.
• Jenny Beaven won for Mad Max: Fury Road and she returns for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Is it in contention despite its cooler box office reception?
• Massimo Cantino Parrini has earned nominations for Cyrano and Pinocchio. Will designing costumes for La Callas for Maria lead to nomination number three?

Production Design, Too? 
If you read a lot of interviews (subscribe to The Contending’s newsletter!) or watch a lot of interviews (subscribe to The Contending’s YouTube channel!) you may notice that a lot of costumers and production designers work together to enhance the visual message of a project. If Linda Muir (the costume designer of the Robert Eggers’ upcoming Nosferatu…also in contention…) put the famous bloodsucker in a frilly, red frock, it wouldn’t really match well with the gloomy sets and dark photography. Should we look at production design contenders to gain more clarity?

If you look at the last ten years, four films went on to win both categories (Poor Things, Black Panther, Mad Max: Fury Road, and The Grand Budapest Hotel), and there is an average of three films per year that overlap. Last year, the Costume Design and Production Design nominees were identical.

Okay, the cat’s out of the bag. One of the biggest contenders in both the costume and production design races is Universal’s Wicked. Costume designer Paul Tazewell is a theater legend, winning a Tony Award for Hamilton, an Emmy Award for The Wiz Live! and an Oscar nomination for Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story. These costumes are jaw-dropping, and they also adhere to what some voters who aren’t familiar with the category will latch onto: it’s big, it’s colorful, and it’s fantasy. Every time a new clip drops (trust me, there are plenty), the first thing I look at are the costumes. If there was ever a lock in this category for a nomination…

Kate Forbes’ work in The Brutalist is period and beautifully character driven. Brady Corbet’s immigrant tale features glorious production design, and you can’t help but think of the articles of clothing these character packed in their suitcases. Can they find something in a local store in their new neighborhood that matches the colors they like or a silhouette that they are used to. While Forbes’ designs are subtler, she could find herself in the conversation if The Brutalist is as big as people are expecting.

I wonder if we are underestimating Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night in the craft categories. Costume designer Danny Glicker was nominated for 2008’s Milk, but his period work in Angelyne, The Sympathizer, The Front Runner and Bad Times at the El Royale has proven a love of research and detail. I think he could be a dark horse contender.

Conclave might be a more reserved choice in a category that likes to reward more more more, but it is already getting a lot of attention for its accuracy. The Academy loves some period accuracy, and while the cardinals may not change their clothes a lot throughout Edward Berger’s thriller, there is something to be said about being able to skillfully execute articles of clothing that we think we are familiar with. This would be Lisy Cristl’s second nomination after 2011’s Anonymous.

If I could…activate…a bit of a campaign here…

Contemporary costume design rarely gets nominated at the Oscars, and that needs to change. We are often entranced by the obvious work that we see in terms of “the most costumes” in the form of large ensembles wearing hoops skirts in large dance sequences or a parde of men in period-appropriate suits. The only modern costuming that I can really recall is for Shirley Kurata in Everything Everywhere All At Once, Zophres’ work in La La Land, Antonella Cannarozzi for I Am Love, and Patricia Field for The Devil Wears Prada.

Emmanuelle Youchnovski’s selections throughout Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance are inspired. My argument could begin and end with Elizabeth Sparkle’s large, protective, bright yellow coat, but it goes beyong that. Dennis Quaid’s Harvey is always covered in loud patterns and dated fabrics. Sue’s closet is filled with girly, pink spandex that hugs her figure. It’s a fantastic example of the intersection of fashion and character.

_________________________________________________________

I think this is a strong year for costume design all around. It doesn’t matter if it’s period, fantasy, or contemporary. But here’s what I am going with right now.

1. Wicked
2. Gladiator II
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Maria
5. Blitz
6. Nosferatu
7. Conclave
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
9. A Complete Unknown
10. Saturday Night