2025 Oscar Predictions: Three Best Actor Nods Feel Certain But Who Follows?

Unlike Best Actress, Best Actor won’t be seen as a “bloodbath” of actors clawing their way into the top five.

Instead, this year’s race feels more subdued, more laid back than in previous years. That’s because there are three main contenders locked and loaded into nomination slots. The heat will come when, assuming all three are nominated, we have to figure out who exactly is going to take home gold. But to get to that point, we need to have a picture of exactly which five actors will most likely face off against each other.

Ralph Fiennes leads the “most likely to be nominated” pack thanks to his career-best work in Conclave. Yes, as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence, he’s in nearly every scene and carries the film’s more eccentric moments with a deftly modulated performance, but more significantly, he hasn’t been nominated since The English Patient. Let that sink in… One of our finest working actors hasn’t seen an Academy Award nomination since 1997. And it’s not for lack of material. The End of the Affair, The Constant Gardener, or The Grand Budapest Hotel could have all merited him nominations, but he failed to make the cut. Hilariously, a handful of Oscar bloggers at Telluride tried to offer up a scenario in which Conclave was a Best Picture frontrunner, but it might miss out on any acting nominations. As if. Fiennes is fantastic and deservedly locked in place.

Next comes his strongest competition for the win: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Brady’s film traveled under the radar for much of the year until its celebrated birth at the Venice Film Festival. Weirdly, he hasn’t truly been taken seriously in film since winning a surprise Best Actor Oscar in 2003 for Roman Polanski’s The Pianist. Critics lavished praise upon his performance, and he’s made no secret that the experience changed him as an actor. That’s the kind of press and buzz you most definitely want going into the late fall critics circuit where he will undoubtedly pick up multiple mentions.

The third most likely or potentially “locked” contender should be Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. He will ride residual good will following last year’s Rustin nomination and is the heart and soul of his beloved film. The only possible trip on his way to the Big Show would be the oddly diminished buzz around his film. A24 dropped Sing Sing in the dead of summer, seemingly OK with letting audiences bypass it in favor of a likely heavily marketed streaming birth before the end of the year. It will come around at the right time for Domingo and will play well on screener, a good thing considering critics are unlikely to offer much year-end “Best” support.

So that’s three… Who’s next?

Well, most players of the game are banking on Timothée Chalamet for his role as Bob Dylan in December’s A Complete Unknown. Personally, I have been reluctant to jump into Club Chalamet (see what I did there? No? Check it out.) thanks to buzz stemming from early test screenings. Yes, I understand the source, and I don’t necessarily take it for the final word on the film. Yet, it gives me pause and makes me hesitant to completely embrace James Mangold’s film. But if not Chalamet, then who?

There’s Daniel Craig, said to give a career-best performance in Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. It’s not been widely seen yet and the initial it mixed to good, so it’s a good sign that Craig’s performance seems to be the one thing people are coalescing around.

Joaquin Phoenix seemed prime to repeat a nomination for his Oscar-winning Joker performance in Joker: Folie à Deux, but that feels significantly handicapped following not only his highly publicized (and highly critiqued) dropping out of Todd Haynes’ gay romance but also the downsized reaction to Folie à Deux at Venice. Yes, they have near-identical Metacritic scores, but the sequel lacks the 100 scores that the original film had.

Sebastian Stan has two films putting him in contention: the Trump film The Apprentice and the indie A Different Man. He seems to be receiving better notices for the latter than for the Trump picture where the focus is entirely on the subject matter and little else. However, A Different Man needs a big fall push to bring it back into the conversation after some notoriety at this year’s Sundance and Berlin film festivals. Stan received a Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance in Berlin, and if A24 wants to get behind it, there could be room for him given the two film narrative.

John David Washington received good notices out of The Piano Lesson‘s Telluride premiere, and he has the notoriety of having played the role on Broadway. However, it’s a very theatrical, showy performance — the kind that the Academy hasn’t recognized in a long time. It’s an uphill climb for him, especially if Netflix doesn’t mount a strong campaign.

Paul Mescal exchanges the sensitive dramatic material (such as his Oscar-nominated turn in Aftersun) for the Ridley Scott-led brawny action sequences of Gladiator II. If anyone has seen Scott’s sequel to his Best Picture-winner, then they’re not broadly talking about it. Anyone who does mention the film or its performances really only talks about Denzel Washington. Russell Crowe won Best Actor for his role in the original film, so never count out Mescal.

My personal vote for a Best Actor nomination would go to Jesse Eisenberg for his sensitive, subtle work in A Real Pain. I think, however, he’s going to inevitably be upstaged by his co-star Kieran Culkin, campaigning in Supporting Actor with a performance that very arguably puts him into co-lead status. Eisenberg gives a heartbreakingly wry performance and hasn’t been nominated since 2010’s The Social Network.

Also in contention are Ethan Herisse (Nickel Boys), Peter Sarsgaard (September 9), Andrew Garfield (We Live In Time), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), and Tom Hiddleston (should The Life of Chuck ever find a distributor).

So, as I officially go on vacation for the rest of the week, here are my predictions for where the top 10 Best Actor candidates fall:

1. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
4. Daniel Craig, Queer
5. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
8. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
10. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain