2025 Oscar Predictions: A Updated View Out of the Mountains (Sort Of), Mid-Venice

I am updating my 2025 Oscar predictions in the Denver airport whilst patiently awaiting my unanticipated red eye to the east coast.

See, attending a film festival is simultaneously one of life’s greatest joys should you have the chance to attend one. It’s also a massive pain in the ass. Aside from lodging, festival passes, and flights, getting to Telluride isn’t exactly easy. I think that’s why it’s so influential. Those who want to go REALLY want to go. It also used to be somewhat shielded from the overall Oscar race as it celebrates films without giving out film or acting prizes. It’s all about the movies, and that really does still ring true today even if it’s no longer shielded from the Oscar race.

To get there, most people fly through the regional airport at Montrose and take a shuttle to get to Telluride. So, today, I did the inverse. I boarded my shuttle like a good boy about four hours before my flight from Montrose to Denver was scheduled to take off. It takes 1.5 hours to drive the winding mountain roads between Telluride and Montrose, but I arrived with little issue. Everything seemed totally fine. When I arrived at my gate (number 3 out of 6 total gates), a flight from Montrose to Denver, the earlier flight I opted not to take, was sitting at the gate. A little voice in the back of my head told me, “Hey dummy, why don’t you try to get on that flight?” See, I was worried about not having time to grab a meal at the Denver airport, and an earlier arrival time would be ideal. HA.

But I told that voice, “That flight’s probably full. Let’s go grab a sandwich at that tiny lunch counter where it will take 45 minutes to get a BLT.”

And my voice said, “THAT SOUNDS LIKE A PERFECT PLAN.”

Flash-forward an hour or so later when the inbound flight from Denver to Montrose started reporting delays. We eventually would leave at 4:20pm MT. With roughly 45 minutes of travel and docking time, that would give me about 15 minutes to run the length of Terminal B at Denver International Airport.

You can see where this is going.

The inbound flight actually made up time, but the host of festival goers (creatives, publicists, and journalists) all swarmed the gate, anxious to board the now hour late flight. Well, the flight was full, so after about 50 people went onto the tarmac, gate agents started enforcing checking of all carry-on bags. That’s when humanity started to unravel. I literally saw someone argue with and vaguely threaten a gate agent. I saw a publicist sneak out onto the tarmac without checking a large carry-on roller bag only to be turned around from the plane and sent back to check their bag. The printing machines broke down. Mobile passes wouldn’t scan. All of this added precious minutes to our departure time.

Then, once on board, the seat I was assigned (8C for the record) was also assigned to a documentary filmmaker who debuted a film at the festival. They had to then bring the gate agents onto the plane to sort it out. That took even more minutes.

Then, we finally taxied to the runway only to sit there for 10 minutes due to weather.

Needless to say, I missed my connection, and now I’m sitting in the Denver International Airport just really wanting to get home. Travel sucks. This is not new, but the Telluride Film Festival was really filled with such great titles that I do honestly think it was worth it. Even if I have to wait six hours and sleep on a plane overnight.

So, what better time than now to update my 2025 Oscar predictions!

The Best of the Fests

Actually seeing the films tells us a lot about where the 2025 Oscar race is headed. And… it doesn’t. Imagine that. There isn’t really a frontrunner for Best Picture right now, which makes things incredibly exciting. I’m keeping Conclave in my number one spot for now. It could be this year’s Spotlight, although it lacks the emotional narrative of that film.

I would argue that The Brutalist revealed itself to be the most seismic development out of both the Telluride and Venice film festivals. This title ranked very low on most predictions. There are, of course, people who smartly called this months ago (AwardsWatch Telluride co-attendee Sophia Ciminello was one of them), particularly the ascension of Oscar-winner Adrien Brody to this year’s Best Actor Oscar race. When the raves started pouring out of Venice, the buzz was all over Telluride. The 3.5+ hour running time initially seemed like a massive detraction, but when people started talking about those intermissions, it became readily apparent that this could be an event movie. Where were you when you saw The Brutalist? What did you do during the intermission?

It’s the kind of excitement people dream of when entering the Oscar race.

Plus, the film is a sprawling historic epic about a Jewish architect who survived the Holocaust to emigrate to the United States to experience the “American dream.” He endures poverty and hunger before a wealthy client (reading from Wikipedia here, not gonna lie) changes his life forever. That sounds incredibly ambitious, deep, and politically resonant with echoes of The Godfather, particularly the scope of The Godfather Part II. Granted, the season is just getting started, but how can Oscar ignore that?

Another event that started in Venice and spread all the way to Telluride was the debut of Pablo Larraín’s Maria. Now, the buzz that travelled was less for the film itself over the transformative performance of Angelina Jolie as Maria Callas. For my money, the race is over. I’ve seen several great performances this year, but nothing has yet to top Jolie’s work in this film. Granted, I haven’t seen The Room Next Door and Tilda Swinton’s reportedly amazing work there, but Jolie’s performance, to me, feels like a once-in-a-lifetime event. Not only does she sing (see the film, it absolutely makes sense), but her portrayal of Callas boasts shades of some of the greatest performances in cinematic history. I was reminded of Gloria Swanson’s work in Sunset Boulevard, particularly. Something seems to have inspired her to deliver in a way that she perhaps hasn’t even. She’s that great. I think it’s all over, folks.

Focusing on the films I’ve seen in Telluride, Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night seems to have gotten the biggest boost. Most assumed the film would be a blistering entertainment (it is), but few anticipated the broad embrace it received in the mountains. We’ll have to see how it’s received in TIFF in a few weeks, but it definitely stuck the landing after its world premiere. SAG ensemble will be very key to future success. Conclave also mostly confirmed what people suspected by premiering as a classic example of Hollywood filmmaking. We’ll have to see how loud its handful of detractors are.

Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson premiered, and the buzz seemed to shift away from a near-certain Samuel L. Jackson win to a Danielle Deadwyler frontrunner status in Supporting Actress.

Nickel Boys seems to be the early critics’ favorite. Emilia Pérez and Anora also kept things swimming along nicely following their award-winning Cannes birth. Both films should continue their hunt for Picture, Direction, and acting nods throughout the season. With Emilia Pérez, I understand the narrative behind Karla Sofia Gascon’s presumed Best Actress bid, but for me, Zoe Saldaña is the lead of the film. We’ll see what the Academy says and how the season evolves this narrative.

There wasn’t much buzz about Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, but it wowed audiences following its debut in the festival as a TBA. It also solidified Kieran Culkin’s status as a major Supporting Actor frontrunner. I didn’t hear much from the other major TBA — The Apprentice — other than festival programmers were thrilled the screening went off without political interference. As if…

Finally, another stealthy buzz title emerged from both festivals in September 5. Starring Peter Sarsgaard (who was in attendance at the Saturday Night premiere), the film follows the ABC Sports crew as they cover the 1972 Munich Olympics hostage events depicted in Steven Spielberg’s Munich. Those who saw the film at both festivals LOVED it, and they told everyone around them to see it. The next few weeks will be key if the film can sustain that buzz. We’re probably looking at a screenplay nomination at the very least.

So, that’s enough babbling from me. Here are my updated 2025 Oscar predictions following this weekend’s revelations.

Now, I need to find a corner of the airport to get some sleep… finally…

2025 Oscar Predictions (September 3)

Best Picture

• Conclave
• Gladiator II
• The Brutalist
• Anora
• Emilia Pérez
• Joker: Folie à Deux
• Dune: Part Two
• Nickel Boys
• A Real Pain
• Saturday Night

Watch Out For: September 5

Best Director

• Edward Berger, Conclave
• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
• Sean Baker, Anora
• Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Watch Out For: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actress

• Angelina Jolie, Maria
• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
• Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
• Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Watch Out For: Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Best Actor

• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
• Daniel Craig, Queer
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Watch Out For: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

• Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
• Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
• Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
• Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Watch Out For: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actor

• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
• Stanley Tucci, Conclave
• Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
• Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
• Guy Pierce, The Brutalist

Watch Out For: Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave
• The Piano Lesson
• Nickel Boys
• The Room Next Door
• Queer

Watch Out For: Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

• A Real Pain
• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Emilia Pérez
• Saturday Night

Watch Out For: Hard Truths