Remember when Emma Stone and Seth MacFarlane announced the nominees of 85th annual Academy Awards? The eventual two-time Best Actress winner announced the majority of the categories alongside her Emmy-winning and Oscar-nominated presenter (MacFarlane earned his first nomination that morning for Best Original Song for Ted‘s “Everybody Needs a Best Friend”), but the first category to be announced that morning was for Best Supporting Actor. As Stone announced each man’s name, she added, ‘He’s won before’ under her breath to the amused pressroom, and the entire crop of nominees (Alan Arkin, Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, and Christoph Waltz) were, indeed, previous winners before MacFarlane joked, ‘Breath of fresh air in that category.’ Looking at the potential contenders for this year, though, we could have a entire slate populated with first-time nominees. Will one Oscar-winning actor return to the race and disrupt that?
If you would like to look at all of the preditions at The Contending, head on over to our newly revamped predictions section!
A Roy Reunion?
When I posted my Best Actress piece a few weeks back, I took a look at how contenders came out of the fall festivals, and Supporting Actor had its first possible nominee come out of Sundance back in January. Keiran Culkin’s performance in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain has been getting strong notices ever since–read Clarence’s review from Telluride!–and his Succession brother, Jeremy Strong, has a film in the race with a different…shall we say…kind of reception? From one of the most polarizing people on the planet?
The Apprentice landed a pre-election release date back at the end of August, but the film didn’t do well when it opened this last weekend. Mr. Trump has also weighed in.
Will the film’s headlines overshadow Strong’s work? After all, Strong is not playing the former president, and he embodies the slithering, lecherous prescence of Roy Cohn, Trump’s infamous mentor. Both Culkin and Strong are Emmy Award winners, and it would be cool to see them duking it out for an Oscar. Even though Strong is the eldest boy, it looks like Culkin’s performance has the better shot.
Hanging In There?
There are a few gentlemen whose work has been seen at festivals with their films being released in the coming weeks. A few of the films have come and gone and may need discovered again. Which seems like the most likely to you?
A lot of chatter has been circling about whether Sing Sing can sustain its goodwill from last year’s TIFF to land in the Best Picture conversation. Some were vocal about how and if they could even see the film in theaters, but it appears that A24 has reminded everyone of their faith in the film. Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin will receive the Impact Award at this weekend’s Middleburg Film Festival, and I suspect that Maclin’s name will keep popping up as this season progresses. He speaks passionately about his story and his love of the film, but I am betting that we will hear his name mentioned in a lot of regional breakthrough categories as well. Could his be this year’s Paul Raci?
The men of Edward Berger’s Conclave could find themselves in serious contention after strong buzz from Telluride, TIFF, and, well, everywhere? Berger’s film is a chamber drama that eerily mirrors how we must negotiate and sacrifice when voting for leadership feels like fitting a square peg into a round hole. When I saw the film in Toronto last month, the press audience was with it every step of the way, and I think it could be a word-of-mouth hit, especially with older audiences. Berger mixes a traditional feeling thriller with palpable immediacy, and there are several possible nominees in the mix, including Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow. Lucian Msamati, Sergio Castellitto, and Carlos Diehz are also very good (SAG ensemble guarantee?), but the Academy might go for previous nominees.
It’s hard to believe that Guy Pearce has never been nominated for an Oscar, but that may change with his work in Brady Corbet’s critically-lauded epic, The Brutalist. His Harrison Lee Van Buren (a nomination just for the name, please?) storms into the film after his son (Joe Alwyn) commissions Adrian Brody’s character to build him a personal library, and his character represents privilege and wealth in close proximity as Brody’s László struggles to figure out what his American dream can and should be. There is a grandeur to Pearce’s performance and some of his line deliveries got a lot of chuckles from a weary, sleepy crowd at my morning screening at TIFF.
Will Netflix’s The Piano Lesson continue the trend of acting nominees for August Wilson adaptations? Samuel L. Jackson and Ray Fisher seem to be the biggest contenders in this category, but which one has the bigger promise? Jackson was the only Tony nominee when he played Doaker Charles on Broadway, but some have suggested that Fisher (who also reprises his Drama Desk nominated turn as Lymon) might have a better shot. Jackson, who feels like he’s everywhere every year, hasn’t been nominated for an Academy Award since Pulp Fiction in 1994 (he was award an Honorary Oscar in 2021), and Danielle Deadwyler is also receiving major buzz in Supporting Actress. Denzel Washington is a producer on the film.
Over the last ten years or so, John Magaro has been making a name for himself in films by Todd Haynes, Kelly Reichardt, Adam McKay, and Craig Gillespie. Audiences really felt for him last year in Celine Song’s Past Lives, so could this be Magaro’s moment with September 5? The Brutalist crashed the first half of the fall festival season, and it appears that Tim Fehlbaum’s film is becoming the must-see film as we head into the colder months of the fall. Clarence and I will be seeing the film this week at Middleburg, and The Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg has the film all over his first round of predictions.
Are we underestimating someone like Lamorne Morris for his turn as Garrett Morris in Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night? The recent Emmy winner has made a pitch to host the actual late night variety series, and in a sea of young talent, Morris has garnered the most buzz since the film dropped at Telluride. With SNL celebrating its 50th season during an election year (so many eyeballs…), maybe he could snag a slot? If you can stand out in an ensemble like that, you should be taken seriously.
Could we be underestimating Mark Eydelshteyn in Sean Baker’s Anora? The object of Mikey Madison’s affection and ire shares all of his scenes with the the title character, and he brings a rascally confidence to his performance. You never know what Vanya is going to do next or what he is going to say, and Eydelshteyn is charming as hell.
Who are some other talents in festival favorites or already released titles, you say?
- Churros anyone? Could Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist come back and make some grunty buzz? I wonder if the Golden Globes will bite at the Musical/Comedy film placement (even though Supporting categories are genre-less)?
- Drew Starkey holds his own against Daniel Craig in Luca Guadagnino’s Queer, but is it just a Craig play in Best Actor?
- Could Adam Pearson make an impression for his work in A Different Man?
- Maybe the Academy will have to make a decision like Nicole Kidman does between Harris Dickinson and Antonio Banderas for Babygirl?
- With Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton vyng for Best Actress, could John Turturro slide into this category as the man who is part of both of their lives?
- Could Brian Tyree Henry return to the Oscars in Rachel Morrison’s feature directorial debut, The Fire Inside?
- Could Hamish Linklater be a driving force for RaMell Ross’ passionately received Nickel Boys?
The Big Mysteries…
Who has already become a threat even if no one has seen their film? There are a few newcomers to the awards race with contending potential, but there is one glaring frontrunner who could kibosh this entire theory of entirely new faces in this category. And that person is…
The king himself–Denzel Washington. He’s a legend. He’s still a box office draw. He’s been nominated for nine acting Oscars, and he has two already on his mantel. You don’t ignore a titan like him. You just don’t. Plus, judging by the trailer for Gladiator II, it looks like he is having one hell of a time playing Macrinus, a “wealthy arms dealer who uses gladiators for sport.” A lot of predictors have Washington on the top spot without even having seen the film…
This might be personal curiosity, but could Jonathan Bailey ride a Ken-like wave towards a nomination? A Golden Globe seems almost assured since Wicked is a humungous musical, but will anyone take the role seriously? Fiyero is a cocky playboy, but he doesn’t have one of the best songs of the first half of the show in “Dancing Through Life.” There are a lot of questions that come with it: How beefed up is the part in the first half? Does he have more to do in part two? Is all the buzz just on Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande? A performance in a musical hasn’t been mentioned in this category since Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls and John C. Reilly in Chicago.
“I’m Just Ken” was one of the most viral, celebrated moments of last year, but can a performance in a musical be taken seriously enough to be in contention? Norbert Leo Butz did not get nominated for a Tony for the stage production, but what if it’s a huge hit? Could a fun-loving, cheeky performance get in with its crafts consideration?
- Can Edward Norton sneak in for playing Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown? Is it the Timothée Chalamet show?
- Willem Dafore almost got in last year for Poor Things…can he overcome horror bias for this Christmas’ Nosferatu?
- Could there be room for more than just Washington with Fred Hechinger and Joseph Quinn gnawing on the scenery in Gladiator II?
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I always consider the supporting categories as a place to honor veteran and character actors (your Mark Rylances, your Christopher Plummers, your James Coburns, etc.), but maybe this year we will have new faces sprinkled in? Since the Best Picture expansion, the category is usually filled with performances nominated for the night’s biggest prize. Not entirely, though. Let’s take a stab at it in my best Emma Stone voice, shall we?
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (he has not been nominated before)
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (he has not been nominated before)
- Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (he has won before)
- Stanley Tucci, Conclave (he has been nominated before)
- Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (he has not been nominated before)
- John Magaro, September 5 (he has not been nominated before)
- Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora (he has not been nominated before)
- Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (he has not been nominated before)
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (he has been nominated before)
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (he has not been nominated before)
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No, we are not.
He's in my five for sure.
Watch out for Yura Borisov in Anora. HIs performance as Igor is the one from the film that has stuck with me and he really shines in the last 20 or so minutes in particular.
This I've heard! He's almost mute at first, but gradually it's clear he's the one with heart and what that means, I'm just so intrigued to find out.
It's just gonna be tough with all 4 potentially cancelling each other out, and currently the campaign seems to be highlighting primarily Eydelshteyn—as the young lovers. But Borisov would be so endearing.
(Btw IMDb and Wiki are confusing the fuck out of me with the romanization and anglicization lol. Wiki has Eidelstein, and then IMDb has Eidelshtein. Oy vey.)
I don't think Washington makes it in, but then again, I don't see Gladiator II being an ATL player. I do see Washington at the Golden Globes though.
I think Jeremy Strong is being underestimated here. The reviews plus, as I'm glad you mentioned, the irresistible Succession co-star narrative with Kieran Culkin will be a fun face-off.
Oh! I'm not sure if I'm wrong or you didn't know, but Peter Sarsgaard is also supporting, because I think the whole cast is campaigning as supporting (just like His Three Daughters). And I think Sarsgaard actually kinda steals the thunder on this one in terms of overdue-for-a-nom status. I've heard all 4 are amazing (Chaplin and Benesch included), and Magaro was sadly snubbed last year and is awesome.
So I'm okay with anybody, honestly! But Sarsgaard has waited like two decades for a reimbursement tbh. But more importantly, Pete Hammond and others seem to single him out the most, at least from what I've read. But if the category placements have changed, please let me know!
P.S. I am SO GLAD I am not the only person who still remembers Emma Stone's 2012 Best Supporting Actor announcement. That shit was hilarious—despite my disappointment that Dwight Henry was snubbed for Beasts of the Southern Wild.
I would replace Denzel with Peter Sarsgaard of September 5 – in your lineup.
I don't think Gladiator will be much of an ATL player.
I have them both in at the moment. The Academy does love themselves some Denzel.
I feel like people have been throwing the Succession narrative around for a few weeks now but when is the previous time that this kind of narrative has actually helped someone who might not have gotten nominated otherwise get in? It's not really in line with how the Oscars vote for nominations since (unless Culkin triggers the surplus rule) you only get to have your vote count for one person at a time.