2025 Oscar Predictions: Will All First-Time Nominees Make Up This Year’s Best Director List?

I was having a conversation yesterday with a close friend who also follows the Oscar race. During that conversation, they (who shall remain anonymous due to the wildness of their prediction) remarked that, traditionally, Oscar’s Best Director lineup more often than not features a “classic director” in the top five. I would personally define “classic director” as someone who has been making films for a few decades and likely has a few nominations under their belt. That’s a loose interpretation, and one that will likely lead to much arguing as to who qualifies. But for the sake of this piece, that’s what I’m going with.

As I looked back across the last decade or so of Best Directors, there definitely is a pattern:

2023: Christopher Nolan, Martin Scorsese, Yorgos Lanthimos (barely qualifying, but sure)
2022: Steven Spielberg
2021: Jane Campion, Steven Spielberg, Kenneth Branagh, Paul Thomas Anderson
2020: David Fincher
2019: Sam Mendes, Quentin Tarantino, Martin Scorsese
2018: Alfonso Cuarón, Spike Lee, Yorgos Lanthimos
2017: Paul Thomas Anderson, Christopher Nolan
2016: Mel Gibson
2015: George Miller (although this was his first nomination)
2014: Alejandro González Iñárritu
2013: Alfonso Cuarón, Martin Scorsese, Alexander Payne
2012: Steven Spielberg, Ang Lee
2011: Martin Scorsese, Alexander Payne, Terrence Malik, Woody Allen
2010: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

I stopped at 2010, but you actually have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a Best Director lineup that consists of directors receiving their first directing nomination. That year, it was Mel Gibson winning for Braveheart followed by Mike Figgis (Leaving Las Vegas), Chris Noonan (Babe), Michael Radford (Il Postino: The Postman), and Tim Robbins (Dead Man Walking). Every year before that contains at least one “classic director” slot.

So, that made us think: who out of this year’s crop will take that “classic director” slot. There’s a real chance that, for the first time in thirty years, we could be seeing a 5-director lineup that consists entirely of first-time nominees.

The most obvious choice for this year’s “classic director” slot would be Ridley Scott for Gladiator II. Not everyone is predicting him, but the early buzz on the sequel to his Oscar-winning original is strong. Remember that he lost director that year to Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) and did not produce Gladiator, so he was unable to receive a statue for that win.

Steve McQueen could also logically fill that position for Apple’s Blitz. While he didn’t win for directing 12 Years a Slave (a crime), he did receive a statue for producing the film. However, early buzz on Blitz is mixed with some predictors taking Steve McQueen out of their top five after having seen the film. I’ll know more when I see it at the Middleburg Film Festival in two weeks, but the trailer looks fantastic.

Mike Leigh holds two Best Director nominations for the brilliant Secrets & Lies and Vera Drake, and he’s received five nominations for Original Screenplays. He’s been out of favor since 2010’s Another Year, but festival favorite Hard Truths, starring potential Best Actress nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste, puts him back in contention with one of his most acclaimed films. Screenplay and Actress seem much more likely, but if the film breaks out of the festival circuit in a major way, then a director nomination would not be out of the question.

There’s also a chance that the Academy could make up for ignoring Denis Villeneuve for Dune with a nomination for its sequel or again recognize Pedro Almodovar for his English-language filmmaking debut in The Room Next Door.

But the biggest left-field contender for a Best Director nomination who would fill that “classic director” slot is also the reason why I won’t name drop my friend. They aren’t predicting Frances Ford Coppola to receive a nomination for Megalopolis (no one is THAT brave). However, in a field that seems mostly trending toward first-time nominees, a nomination for Coppola (his first since 1990’s The Godfather Part III) would definitely fill that “classic director” slot most frequently occupied by Martin Scorsese or Steven Spielberg.

Now, there are obvious hurdles to a Coppola nomination. Megalopolis is a notorious big budget box office flop that wildly polarizes audiences. It is also Coppola’s passion project that his friends (Spike Lee being one) clearly respect, and he’s quick to remind whoever will listen that Apocalypse Now was also panned on initial release but eventually became a classic. I’ve weighed in on this before, but the reception to the two films are not comparisons. The most equivalent nomination I can think of would be David Lynch for Mullholland Drive, a film audiences also shit all over. However, critics loved his wild and non-narrative vision, and they had a huge hand in helping the Academy overlook popular opinion. I don’t think, though, that critics will rescue Coppola this year.

Which is too bad. I would have loved to see Coppola rise again with a late-career nomination. Maybe that’s still in the cards for Coppola’s next film, but it’s not going to happen for Megalopolis.

So, if the veterans all fall short, then what potential first-time nominees could fill the Best Director five?

Sean Baker continues to receive raves for his brilliant, emotional, and very funny Anora. He directed Mikey Madison to a star-making performance that could win Best Actress, and he sensitively explores the world of sex workers without ever making it feel gratuitous.

Brady Corbet blew Venice and TIFF audiences away with his epic direction of The Brutalist. He’s positioned as a potential front runner in many circles for a film that some have favorably compared to Coppola’s The Godfather Part II. It seems difficult to imagine a scenario in which he’s left out.

Jacques Audiard could receive his first nomination for his strong staging of the musical Emilia Pérez. He’s a hugely respected international filmmaker, and the increasingly foreign Academy could single him out as this year’s foreign director nominee.

Edward Berger should have received a nomination for All Quiet on the Western Front, so there’s a strong chance the Academy makes up for that with a nom for his subtle direction of Conclave. This one is tricky, though, as Conclave is seen as more of an acting / writing success than a directorial success — something I would strenuously argue against personally.

RaMell Ross received an Academy Award nomination for his documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening, and he could receive a first-time Best Director nomination for his innovative helming of Nickel Boys. Audiences and critics are mostly embracing his risks (primarily the first-person POV filmmaking), but it does have its detractors. But if the Academy loves the film, then they will embrace its direction.

Also in the hunt for their first time nomination are Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig), Marielle Heller (Nightbitch), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), and Luca Guadagnino (Queer or Challengers).

That said, here are my current top ten in contention for Best Director:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Edward Berger, Conclave
3. Sean Baker, Anora
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
5. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
6. Steve McQueen, Blitz
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
8. Pedro Almodovar, The Room Next Door
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night