2025 Oscar Predictions: A First Look At the Race As We Head To the Lido, Mountains

Welcome to The Contending’s first Oscar predictions column!

Internally, we’ve had a lot of chatter about how we wanted to handle predictions across a team of eager and very capable Oscar prognosticators. At least initially, we didn’t want a single voice from the site dominating the conversation. We want our readers to engage and become familiar with the entire team. Given that, I will be posting broader, multi-category posts on a recurring basis yet to be determined. Then, other contributors will contribute deeper looks at individual categories. On this week’s Fantasy Oscar podcast, Joey affirmed his love for the actresses, so it would be my guess that he’ll weigh in there. Other writers will create looks at a broad array of categories, including below-the-line contenders.

We’re working things out, but we’re pretty confident you’ll like what you see.

Kicking things off, I think it’s great timing to take stock of the 2025 Oscar race just ahead of festival season. Outside of a handful of films premiering at Cannes in May, it’s kind of been a dead zone. Last year was perhaps an anomaly with Barbie and Oppenheimer coming in hot in July and vying for attention all throughout the festival season. That definitely worked in Oppenheimer‘s favor as everything premiering in the fall was held to that standard. Was the hot new film as good as Oppenheimer? Nope, next please. It went on and on and on until it became an inevitability that the film audiences (that box office!) AND critics loved would take home Best Picture.

This year, we’re in a more traditional place. We could have a contender in Denis Villeneuve’s Dune 2. Cannes launched both Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez and Sean Baker’s Anora into the conversation. There was also the seek-and-ye-shall-find title Sing Sing, directed by Greg Kwedar, which early predictors really jumped on initially but seemed to fade as its rollout rolled like molasses. Some would say that doesn’t matter in the streaming era, but someone will have to come back and rescue it as SAG did for CODA a few years ago. It’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility, but looking at the festival season, this does not feel like a Power of the Dog vs. CODA year.

There are lots of possibilities on the horizon.

That’s what makes this year’s festival season so exciting. On paper, there appears to be much to be excited about. It’s kind of my favorite part of the year — that window where we’re buzzing about titles before they’re seen and “the tastemakers” deem them awful. Headed into the Venice Film Festival and Telluride, I’m most excited about another great Angelia Jolie performance in Maria or the hopes of a great movie about Saturday Night or the promise of a breakthrough director in Malcolm Washington for The Piano Lesson or a great commercial film like Conclave or Gladiator II. The world feels ripe with possibility. It’s a nice change indeed.

I’ll write more about Telluride and my most anticipated films later this week, but let’s get to the actual Oscar predictions.

If I had to bet on it, I’d say the overall nomination leader for the 2025 Oscars would probably be Gladiator II. I am predicting Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and a lot of craft nominations. I think Ridley Scott would agree with me since he proudly proclaims it the best film he’s ever directed. A bold claim indeed. My feeling about this is he has to hit with something soon, right? The Last Duel didn’t hit. Neither did House of Gucci. Neither did Napoleon. After so many swings, something has to connect… right??? Even a broken clock is right twice a day!

But I’m not predicting a Gladiator II win just yet. Right now, I have Edward Berger’s Conclave as a frontrunner. An anticipated Telluride premiere this weekend could change all that, of course, but there’s something quirky to me about a PG-rated film winner Best Picture. Joey Moser tells me that it’s been since Driving Miss Daisy since that’s happened. But I have more to back that up. Berger hit with All Quiet on the Western Front, so this tonal change of pace could be perceived as an exciting shift. Then, the SAG factor plays heavily here with a quartet of four beloved actors — Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini — heading the cast. We’ll know more this time next week I think.

I’m also hearing great things about Sean Baker’s Anora led by a Mikey Madison performance that boasts this kind of Twitter hyperbole:

I hope Madison’s performance is truly that great. I have liked her in several things, but I never felt I was seeing everything she had to offer. Hopefully, Anora gives her that opportunity. Coming out of Cannes, Anora was somewhat paired in conversations only with Emilia Pérez. What’s really strange is, out of Cannes, I only heard raves. The buzz over the past two weeks online, however, seems to have turned. Perhaps that’s just the corner of Twitter / X that I’ve been in while launching the site. Maybe an audacious musical doesn’t hit with everyone. That certainly happened out of Cannes with Moulin Rouge! Hopefully, I’ll be able to see for myself this weekend in Telluride. When I’m not stargazing for Angelina Jolie, that is…

Right now, those are the four big titles heading into festival season that I’m most closely watching. Be sure to check back at The Contending for reports from Venice and Telluride!

Let’s move onto the predictions in top categories.

Best Picture

• Conclave
• Anora
• Gladiator II
• Blitz
• Emilia Pérez
• Joker: Folie à Deux
• The Piano Lesson
• Sing Sing
• Dune: Part Two
• Nickel Boys

Watch Out For: Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths

Best Director

• Edward Berger, Conclave
• Sean Baker, Anora
• Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
• Steve McQueen, Blitz
• Pedro Almodovar, The Room Next Door

Watch Out For: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Best Actress

• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Angelina Jolie, Maria
• Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
• Amy Adams, Nightbitch
• Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Watch Out For: Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Actor

• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
• Daniel Craig, Queer
• Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Watch Out For: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

• Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
• Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
• Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
• Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Watch Out For: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez

Best Supporting Actor

• Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
• Stanley Tucci, Conclave
• Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
• Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Watch Out For: John Lithgow, Conclave

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave
• The Piano Lesson
• Nightbitch
• Nickel Boys
• The Room Next Door

Watch Out For: Queer

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora
• Blitz
• Emilia Pérez
• Hard Truths
• Saturday Night

Watch Out For: A Real Pain