I have always loved the Golden Globes, so I’m very excited for Sunday’s 2025 Golden Globes.
Yes, I fully understand they have historically been a very problematic organization, and they’ve diminished significantly since their reckoning over the past few years. But I believe they will always been influential. For every The Tourist or Pia Zadora or Aaron Taylor-Johnson, there have been significant nominations that admirably broke away from the pre-defined awards narrative. I’m talking about years when they nominated Breaking the Waves for Best Picture (Drama) or when they afforded the brilliant The Aviator with multiple wins (oddly in a year where they ignored the frontrunner and eventual Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett for Natalie Portman — an award I also love) or when they recognized previously unheralded work from Richard Gere (Chicago) or Colin Farrell (In Bruges). The magic of the Golden Globes has always been that, on the surface, no one took them too seriously despite showing up for their awards show and giving everyone at home a decent-to-good presentation filled with tipsy celebrities.
Yes, they’ve been proved corrupt, but they’ve been corrected and rebranded. I, for one, welcome their return to influence. Based on last year’s wins, we can surmise that they have indeed returned to a position of influence. Gone are the days when they worshipped at the alter of celebrity (no Ryan Reynolds nomination in Comedy Actor for Deadpool and Wolverine). Now, they’ve stepped into a position where they most assuredly want to predict the Academy Awards.
Look at last year’s winners. Every single eventual Oscar winner first won a Golden Globe. They didn’t, as perhaps they would have in years past, fawn all over Barbie with wins for Comedy or Comedy Actress. Instead, they chose the Academy-friendly Poor Things and Emma Stone. Perhaps in years past, they would have avoided the more popular drama (Oppenheimer) and instead honored something like Killers of the Flower Moon with the Drama prize.
In their efforts to regain credibility amidst the many scandals that have plagued the organization, they’ve become much more of a rubber stamper of the growing awards narrative. Granted, we really only have last year to go on to determine whether or not they will be a reliable bellwether of eventual Oscar winners. But, for now, we can assume that this organization like the Critics Choice wants to serve as a predictor for the Oscars and less of an “going their own crazy way” entity.
So, with that, who is most likely to take home the 2025 Golden Globes on Sunday night?
The nomination leaders this year are Emilia Pérez with 10 nominations (one shy of Nashville‘s 11 record nominations for a Comedy/Musical) and The Brutalist with 7 nominations. Conclave follows closely with 6 nominations, missing that Supporting Actor bid for Stanley Tucci that now appears out of reach given multiple awards-giving bodies leaving him out. Historically, having the most nominations didn’t necessarily mean you were going to win the most awards. There have been several years where the leading film only won a single award. Last year, Barbie led with 9 nominations, setting up a potential dominant run for the comedy with potentially Ryan Gosling receiving a very Globes-appropriate win for Supporting Actor. That, of course, didn’t happen. Instead, the nomination runner-up Oppenheimer took home the most wins of the night with 5 wins. Was the film that undeniable that even the Globes couldn’t ignore it? Or did the Globes really change?
Looking over at Gold Derby, the Experts seem roughly split between The Brutalist and Conclave winning Drama Film. My guess is that Conclave ultimately wins the award because it will continue the narrative (the narrative I and a few others have followed anyway) established way back at Telluride: it has always been a 2-film race between Conclave and Anora. Anything else is just noise. With that, I think the Globes will bestow Anora the Comedy prize along with Mikey Madison for Comedy Actress. This will certainly be our first guess as to whether or not Anora is just a critics’ thing or if it truly has the chops to go all the way.
That’s how I see things breaking down anyway. Who knows how it will eventually turn out. They could align more with Film Twitter and award The Brutalist Drama and Actor (Adrien Brody). They could go left field and give Kate Winslet (an actress they’ve historically loved) Best Actress for Lee (don’t bet on that). Or they could go all-in on Emilia Pérez with wins for Supporting Actress, Comedy Actress, and more.
It will take a few cycles to really know who the new Golden Globes really are and that’s what will make Sunday’s ceremony the most fun. It’ll be our first major non-critics awards cycle of the 2025 Oscar race. No matter what anyone says, I still believe it will have a huge influence on the forming Oscar race.
We’ll have predictions from The Contending team on Friday. Until then, here are my personal predictions for Sunday’s 2025 Golden Globe awards.
